Colin Kaepernick's Decision-Making Is Killing 49ers Offense
On one hand, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a dynamic, strong-armed playmaker who is capable of picking up the offense and putting it on his shoulders.
But on the other, the 49ers signal-caller is not showing the signs of being more than just a one-read quarterback and whose decision-making process is costing San Francisco's offense significantly in 2014.
The 27-year-old is now in his second full season as a starter and has played in only 44 regular-season games—starting in 35 of them.
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Now there isn't any exact threshold that indicates whether a quarterback has developed up to par.
Yet it is clear that Kaepernick is far from reaching this plateau, and his abilities under center have played a significant role in what has been an underwhelming offensive showing in 2014.
Fans can recall numerous games in which Kaepernick carried the team. This was evident on the 49ers' road through the playoffs two years ago. Remember that game versus the Green Bay Packers? Kaepernick also helped engineer the dramatic comeback in Super Bowl XLVII, only to fall short on a failed fade route to wide receiver Michael Crabtree.
That incident repeated itself again in the NFC Championship Game versus the Seattle Seahawks a year ago.
Unfortunately, it has been more of the latter which has frustrated 49ers fans around the league. Kaepernick's maturation process has hit a stumbling block, and the entire offense is suffering as a result.
Breaking Down the Numbers
There will be those who argue that Kaepernick is swiftly turning into a bust. These critics will cite his inability to move through his progressions, his pocket presence, the ability to put more "touch" on a pass and his accuracy—all of which are critical weak spots.
Indeed, Kaepernick does struggle in these areas. He has been sacked a total of 38 times through Week 13, and while many of those numbers fall upon his offensive line, Kaepernick shares some of the blame for not being able to recognize and react to oncoming pressure.
But let's take a look at his accuracy—an element that was in question during the 49ers' most recent loss to the Seahawks a week ago.
Kaepernick is completing 61.2 percent of his passes in 2014, which is down from his career-high of 62.4 in 2012. But it is up from the 58.4 posting of a year ago. He ranks out with a 60.3 completion percentage, which suggests that he is directly in line this season with previous numbers.
| 2011 | 3 | 60.0 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 13 | 62.4 | 1,814 | 10 | 3 |
| 2013 | 16 | 58.4 | 3,197 | 21 | 8 |
| 2014 | 12 | 61.2 | 2,736 | 15 | 8 |
| Total | 44 | 60.3 | 7,782 | 46 | 19 |
Yet these numbers from Pro-Football-Reference.com include dropped passes, throwaways and spikes from the quarterback.
Bleacher Report's Joseph Akeley put together a piece describing how Kaepernick is the ultimate enigma.
In his assessment, Akeley cites Pro Football Focus' quarterback percentage rating, which does remove the aforementioned drops, etc. At the middle of November, Kaepernick actually ranked higher than quarterbacks Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady with a 75.8 completion percentage at the time.
Conflicting? Yes.
But stats can be deceiving. The numbers do not always explain his decision-making process. Nor do they sum up why Kaepernick seemingly locks onto one receiver, which allows opposing defensive backs—say, Seattle's Richard Sherman—to read his eyes.
Breaking Down the Film
Sherman picked off Kaepernick twice during the 19-3 Thanksgiving loss at Levi's Stadium.
Sherman and the Seahawks have proved to be Kaepernick's kryptonite over his career—reinforced in addition to the previous numbers the quarterback has had against the 49ers' chief rival from up north.
Prior to Thursday's contest, Kaepernick boasted a 54.0 quarterback rating against Seattle, per Eric Branch of SFGate.com. He now has a rating of 49.5.
Let's take a look at those interceptions and the decision-making involved therein.
The first pick was at the 5:39 mark of the first quarter when the game was still 0-0. Kaepernick will attempt a pass to wide receiver Brandon Lloyd only to miss his mark when his pass sails left and into the waiting arms of Sherman.
The second came in the fourth. San Francisco was trailing 19-3 at this point. Kaepernick's pass was intended for wideout Stevie Johnson, but Sherman beat him to the punch once more.
Let's detail the first pick intended for Lloyd.
We notice Lloyd (highlighted in yellow) matched up against Sherman (red) at the top of the screen. The 49ers were facing a 3rd-and-8 on this play, and Kaepernick will challenge Sherman's side of the field.
Yet the ball sails to the left of Lloyd, who was cutting to his right and back toward the quarterback. Sherman has an easy interception. Note that wide receiver Anquan Boldin has some relative space at the bottom of the screen. He was well beyond the first-down marker by the time this throw was executed.
One could make the argument that Lloyd turned around too late or that he cut to the wrong side.
But according to head coach Jim Harbaugh (h/t Marcus Thompson of Bay Area News Group), Lloyd had run the correct route. Kaepernick had simply missed his mark.
This play calls into question two significant factors: Kaepernick's accuracy and decision-making. The film also reveals Kaepernick locking into Lloyd far too early. At no point does Kaepernick look off the defensive back. Nor does he recognize other options, which would have been a safer bet.
Lastly, the throw itself was far off target.
Similarities exist in the second interception of the game. Kaepernick will get flushed out of the pocket, escaping forward and to his right. Facing pressure, he locks into Johnson. Note running back Frank Gore (yellow arrow) breaking out from the line to be a safety-valve option.
But Kaepernick never looks his way and forces the pass intended for Johnson. Sherman hauls it in. Gore is wide open at the top of the screen.
There are a number of things wrong with this. First, it was an underthrown pass—never a good thing while facing pressure and attempting an over-the-top throw. Additionally, Kaepernick had a safer option throwing back across his body to Gore had he looked in that direction.
Granted, across-body throws aren't ideal. But in this case, Kaepernick should have delivered the ball into an area in which only his targets could receive it. This didn't happen.
What makes it worse is the fact that this was a 1st-and-10 play. It's not as if the 49ers were forced to convert a third- or a fourth-down try here. If all else had failed, Kaepernick could have simply thrown the ball out of bounds.
These plays have bad decisions written all over them.
But Kaepernick can't be known for solely the negatives that have surrounded him in recent weeks. There have to be some positives to his season, right?
There are, which back up Akeley's claim that San Francisco's man under center is still the ultimate enigma.
Let's take a look at one of his signature plays from 2014, courtesy of Dylan DeSimone of CSN Authentic. The play happened back in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys at a point in which the 49ers offense looked far more potent than it is now.
This play came at the 6:44 mark of the first quarter. Kaepernick recognizes and avoids the pressure within the pocket, stepping up to avoid the pass rush. If you watch Kaepernick's head, you see him read through his progressions—looking left, then right and finally picking up Boldin for a 37-yard gain.
As seen here, Kaepernick is scanning to his left while recognizing the pressure from that side. Peripheral vision also allows him to react to the interior pressure.
Kaepernick avoids the pass rush while shifting his vision to his right. At the correct moment, he delivers a pass through a seam in the defense to Boldin, who was running a post pattern toward the center of the field.
Unlike the plays from Week 13, this effort marked the necessary awareness, reaction, decision-making and execution.
Moving Forward
Kaepernick does have the ability to be more than a one-read quarterback. He has shown, at times, the ability to maintain composure within the pocket, read through his progressions and accurately deliver passes.
The problem is that these have not been done with any regular amount of consistency.
Old habits die hard, and such could be said about Kaepernick's development and maturation. The overall ineptitude of San Francisco's offense has also been a hindrance.
But the 49ers want nothing more than for their signal-caller to become franchise elite. That's why they gave him the lucrative contract extension during the offseason. Yet San Francisco has also taken precautions by inserting numerous "outs" into the deal itself.
Has 2014 revealed that Kaepernick is simply this type of quarterback—one who can make game-changing plays but can also wind up committing some of the worst possible mistakes under center?
There are those who would argue Kaepernick is hindered by the current coaching staff, namely offensive coordinator Greg Roman. But Kaepernick is not necessarily tied to the incumbent coaching administration under Jim Harbaugh—an argument made by Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area, who writes:
"Kaepernick’s future with the 49ers will hinge on whether the front office believes his production is in line with his contract. ...The 49ers might be eager to see what Kaepernick is capable of doing with a new approach on offense.
"
Perhaps this is what's needed for Kaepernick to reach his next level. But the burden also falls upon the 27-year-old quarterback to learn from his mistakes and to apply those lessons in the future.
Given his importance within the offense and the nature of quarterbacking in general, the progress in his decision-making and awareness cannot happen a moment too soon.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers' news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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