Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions: Complete Week 14 Preview for Detroit
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers return to face the Detroit Lions for the second consecutive season, and both franchises sit in similar situations as they did a year ago.
The Lions are a game back in the NFC North at 8-4 and would qualify for a wild card if the season ended today. An easy win over the Chicago Bears last week kept hope afloat, but plenty of detractors have made mention of the Bears' ineptitude.
Yet, the truth lies somewhere in between the naysayers' nagging and the optimists' Super Bowl proclamations. The ability to beat the bad teams doesn't mean anything come playoff time. It does, however, count just the same as any other win in terms of qualifying.
And Tampa's 2-10 record qualifies it is as a bad team.
Can Detroit continue on its path to the playoffs that is paved with putrid opponents? Or will it stumble off the trail as it has in seasons past?
Click through to find out.
Lions' Week 13 Game Recap
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For the first time in a long time, the offense overshadowed the defense against the Chicago Bears.
Jay Cutler and the Bears came out hot, ripping off the New England Patriots' game plan and ripping through Detroit's defense. The result was a 14-3 lead after the first quarter.
The Lions, however, stopped digging themselves deeper and started digging in, especially along the offensive line. Detroit didn't take another sack after Rob Sims allowed Jared Allen to strip Matthew Stafford to set up Chicago's second touchdown (the second sack wasn't really a sack, as Stafford slid to keep the clock running).
Stafford only posted two "bad" passes (off target for no reason other than a poor throw), racking up a season-high 390 yards on 34-of-45 passing. Calvin Johnson helped out the cause with 11 catches for 146 yards and two scores.
Even the running game eventually broke through. Joique Bell averaged four yards per carry on his way to 91.
The defense, of course, settled in after the two quick scores and held Chicago to three points the rest of the way. Defensive end Ezekiel Ansah still haunts offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod's nightmares after his scary one-sack, nine-hurry (!) performance, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
For three quarters, this was a complete football team, and the result was an easy win. Now, can it be replicated?
News and Notes
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That's No Fair(ley)!
The familiar refrain of children when things don't go their way could apply to the Lions regarding defensive tackle Nick Fairley. In short, there hasn't been anything to indicate he will be back this season.
"Caldwell said he doesn't know if Fairley will be back this year. Said he and Warford are on different tracks. Warford expected back sooner.
— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) December 1, 2014"
To be fair, that's all you'll get from head coach Jim Caldwell. He's downright Bill Belichick-ian in his description of injuries and predictions of return dates.
Fairley has been working hard but stayed mum when asked. The injury only makes his impending free agency harder to diagnose, and his absence is obvious on passing downs. C.J. Mosley is a capable defensive tackle, but he can't replicate Fairley's quick first step or pocket-penetrating ways.
Flexin' on 'Em
While the Lions have been garnering attention for their winning ways, the Minnesota Vikings have flown under the radar.
The Vikings have improved since the first half of the season. They pounded on the Carolina Panthers and came up three points shy of pulling off a huge upset over the Green Bay Packers. That semi-resurgence and the playoff implications for Detroit caused the NFL to "flex" next week's game to 4:25 p.m. ET, per Justin Rogers of MLive.com.
"The NFL uses "flexible scheduling" to ensure quality matchups in all Sunday time slots and to give teams a chance to play their way onto prime time and into the late-afternoon time slot on CBS or FOX.
The Vikings improved to 5-7 on the season with a 31-13 win against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Minnesota is unlikely to factor into the postseason race, but will have the opportunity to play spoiler against NFC North rival Detroit (8-4), who are locked in a tight race for the division crown with the Green Bay Packers.
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It's unlikely the game will get any national exposure. The Seattle Seahawks and 49ers" target="_blank">San Francisco 49ers will also be aired on Fox in the same time slot, and the loser will probably see its playoff hopes evaporate.
Teryl Austin Prefers Silver to Maize with his Blue
Brady Hoke was relieved of his duties at Michigan, opening up a job that defensive coordinator Teryl Austin might have coveted at one time. From 1999 to 2002, he worked as a defensive assistant for the Wolverines.
However, he won't be throwing his hat in the ring for Hoke's old gig, per Kyle Meinke of MLive.com. It's possible Austin isn't comfortable from profiting from his friend's suffering.
"Brady Hoke's a good friend," Austin said. "I know it's part of our business, but you hate it. I know Brady is a good man, and I know a lot of guys on that staff, and they're good people, and I wish them well.
"
Lions fans—many of whom presumably root for the Wolverines on Saturday—will be happy to hear they won't lose the captain who steered a crew from the middle of the pack to the top of the heap in terms of points allowed (17.3).
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Status |
| Nick Fairley | DT | NP | NP | NP | Out |
| Reggie Bush | RB | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
| Calvin Johnson | WR | LP | FP | FP | Probable |
| Riley Reiff | OT | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
| Larry Warford | OG | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
| Theo Riddick | RB | Not Listed | Not Listed | LP | Probable |
*Injury report is sourced from DetroitLions.com. All statuses are projections until the official game designations are released.
It's extremely rare for a team to be this healthy this late in the season. Fans should knock on wood, but Detroit is primed to trot out 21 of 22 possible starters against the Bucs.
The only exception is Fairley, who—as we covered earlier—may or may not be back this season. C.J. Mosley will continue to handle the starting duties, and Caraun Reid and Andre Fluellen will rotate in behind him.
As for the offense, even Reggie Bush looks likely to hit the field.
"Jim Caldwell says Reggie Bush is still the starter when he returns to the field. Reggie says he's 100% and playing this week.
— Carlos Monarrez (@cmonarrez) December 4, 2014"
Bush has expressed confidence before and been a late scratch, but all that rest leads me to take him at his word. And Johnson's limited participation is probably more precautionary than anything else.
Reiff and Warford have been full participants all week, leading one to presume they'll be full participants on Sunday. If not, Cornelius Lucas would step in for Reiff, while Travis Swanson has been Warford's fill-in the past few weeks. Both have performed adequately in their replacement roles, but Gerald McCoy would be a tough matchup for the rookie Swanson.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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OG Larry Warford vs. DT Gerald McCoy
Nobody considers Tampa's defense to be a world-beater, but as Kyle Meinke of MLive.com noted: "[t]he Bucs have surged from last to 20th in defense over the past month. They allowed 18.2 points per game in that span."
That's largely due to the large man in the middle. McCoy is rated as the second-best defensive tackle, per Pro Football Focus, because his pass-rushing ability has produced 8.5 sacks, nine quarterback hits and 23 hurries.
There won't be any easing back into things for Warford. After missing three games, Detroit's best lineman must quickly regain the form that made him PFF's Rookie of the Year in 2013.
DE Ezekiel Ansah vs. LT Anthony Collins
The Bucs offensive line has been absolutely brutal this year, and Collins is probably its worst offender. The left tackle has allowed 14 quarterback hits and 14 hurries while leading the team with 10 penalties (a distinction he shares with right tackle Demar Dotson).
Meanwhile, Ansah continues to imitate a 6'6", 278-pound toddler getting used to his legs beneath him. He cannot be stopped from running to his favorite spots without someone holding onto him. It'd be a huge coup for Tampa Bay if Collins could slow down Ansah without drawing drive-killing penalties.
CBs Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis vs. WRs Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson
If the Bucs find a way to keep Josh McCown upright long enough, Tampa has the resources to make Detroit's secondary pay.
Jackson (6'5", 230 lbs) was a known commodity, and pundits thought Evans (6'5", 231 lbs) would catch on at some point. Despite the insecurity at the quarterback position, these two have combined for 103 catches for 1,592 yards and 10 scores.
Slay has earned his billing as a top-10 cornerback, and Mathis has put together another solid league-average season. The secondary has had trouble keeping teams with big wideouts from jumping out to early leads (Atlanta Falcons, Chicago), so these two will be tasked with getting Detroit on the right track early.
Lions' X-Factor of the Week: WR Golden Tate
Johnthan Banks was a favorite target of Lions draft chatter heading into the 2013 NFL draft and with good reason. He's started to come along as this season has progressed, and he pairs well with veteran Alterraun Verner.
But the Tampa 2 scheme means there won't be many one-on-one matchups. The defense is built to contain an offense by limiting big plays, which means short throws are conceded often.
That's why Tate will have the opportunity to put his stamp on this game. His ability to make people miss (15 missed tackles, second among wide receivers) is the reason he has the most yards after the catch (585) for his position. He'll be the key to Detroit's offense this Sunday.
Prediction
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The Tampa 2 defense isn't a new scheme. In fact, Matthew Stafford has seen it multiple times since Lovie Smith used to be a frequent foe during his tenure in Chicago.
It wouldn't surprise me if the present players running the system have less experience with it.
However, after giving up 30 points three times in four weeks, Tampa has only given up 20 three times in its last six outings. The blend of talent and scheme might be coming together for the Bucs.
But the same can be said for Detroit's offense. And allowing Stafford to establish a rhythm by picking up easy yards underneath isn't a good strategy against this Lions offense—especially when your offense is averaging just 18.3 points per game and is facing the league's top scoring defense.
As mentioned, Golden Tate will be given the opportunity to add to his yards-after-the-catch lead, which will produce enough points to force Tampa to rely on Josh McCown for a comeback win. Without a slew of turnovers, it's tough to see that happening.
And Detroit only has only 15 giveaways, while Tampa has 25. There isn't a stat out there that bodes well for the Bucs.
Score: Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 10
Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.
All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus and require a subscription.
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