Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans: Complete Week 13 Preview for Houston

A division-rivalry game like this should be exciting and carry some significance, but sadly, neither of these teams will be playing still when the calendar rolls over to January.

At 2-9 the Titans will be officially eliminated from playoff contention with one more loss or another win by the glut of AFC teams with seven wins on the season, while the Texans are technically still alive, but rigor mortis isn't far away.

TeamRankings.com has the Texans' odds of making the playoffs at 11.8 percent. There's still a chance, but I'm not a believer with Ryan Fitzpatrick back at quarterback. They should go 3-0 in their three remaining games against Jacksonville and Tennessee, but there's no way they'll beat both Baltimore and Indianapolis.

Neither the Colts nor the Ravens are great teams, but both teams have much better quarterbacks, and the game against the Colts is at Indianapolis, where the Texans have never won before in franchise history.

They'll have to win each of their remaining five games to have any chance of reaching the postseason, but even if they get to 10-6 they'll likely be on the wrong end of too many tiebreakers—lose tiebreakers to Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and likely Indianapolis—so you can call me skeptical.

Houston Texans Week 12 Recap

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Well that felt like a kick in the gut huh?

In a season full of roller-coaster moments, the Houston Texans' loss last week to the Cincinnati Bengals felt more soul-crushing than the other five losses that came before. Every loss hurts, but to follow up what seemed like a season-changing win over Cleveland by laying an egg last week was deflating.

If the Texans had pulled out a victory over the Bengals, they would have been a legit playoff contender. A victory would have made them 6-5 with 8-5 just around the corner by having two very winnable division games on deck.

Instead their record dropped below .500 once again and they lost another important tiebreaker to a team in the playoff race; their odds are looking pretty bleak at the moment. If the Texans win out to reach 10-6 they'll have a chance to make it still, but their tiebreaker situation makes them a long shot.

With a game at Indianapolis still on the remaining schedule, winning-out is unlikely anyway.

So how did they lose the game to Cincinnati that many—including myself—thought they'd win? Their offense was a train wreck, the defense was hit-or-miss and they were out-played physically on both sides of the ball; other than that, they played great!

Of course, we have to start with the play of quarterback Ryan Mallett, who looked great the week before but had a "Welcome to the NFL" moment against the Bengals. Mallett had a very "Fitz-like" stat line by completing under 50 percent of his pass attempts for 189 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception.

Of course, we've now found out that he was hurt going into the game, so I guess his poor performance can be excused in terms of evaluating his future potential, but he was definitely a big part of why they lost to the Bengals.

To be fair, when one of your tackles has an awful game like Derek Newton did, it would be difficult for any quarterback to play well while being hit or laying flat on his back. 

"

Poor footwork from the beginning by Newton. He is better than this. #Texans https://t.co/Qe5axWe5vO

— PDS (@PatDStat) November 26, 2014"

It also doesn't help when your receivers drop passes that should result in easy completions. 

"

Damaris can't drop this. #Texans https://t.co/F8nn36CUqd

— PDS (@PatDStat) November 26, 2014"

The running game that performed so well the week before against Cleveland also abandoned the Texans against the Bengals. Against Cincinnati, the Texans rushed for just 64 yards; 149 yards fewer than the week before and their second-lowest total of the season.

The Bengals front-seven played the outside-zone runs very well by slanting, stacking and flooding defenders into the would-be running lanes. They did a great job up front of pressing the line and penetrating instead of running with the offensive lineman which creates holes and lanes.

Arian Foster might have had more success because Alfred Blue's vision for the cutback lane is minimal, but the coaching staff should have adjusted to more of a power game with traps, counters and lead dive plays; running side to side worked in the Bengals' favor with their speed on defense.

The defense wasn't awful—the 372 total yards allowed is right in the middle of the totals they've allowed this season—but they gave up crucial plays in the most important situations. In particular, the catch-and-run by rookie back Jeremy Hill late in the fourth quarter was a dagger; the linebackers really struggled in coverage. 

J.J. Watt was great overall and stuffed the stat sheet once again, but one of his few flaws did have a negative impact on their run defense.

Stay with me for a minute, because I know most of you are skeptical with my claim of Watt making a mistake. Watt makes a positive impact on nearly every play with his deflected passes, sacks, tackles for loss and quarterback hurries, but he's not perfect on every play. 

"

Watt deflects the pass. Can see Green show late. #Texans https://t.co/GcfJMPOBRj

— PDS (@PatDStat) November 26, 2014"

Here's what I mean by that: He's able to make a lot of plays by kind of doing his own thing based off what he sees on the field instead of executing his assignment on a given play. That results in dynamic and amazing plays, but it can also take him out of position and allow the opponent to pick up yards. 

"

Watt creating running room. Swims OG and lets him get to Cush. Dent fills. Watt puts defense in bad spot ru... https://t.co/57ov3WZFyP

— PDS (@PatDStat) November 26, 2014"

By getting out of his lane, smart offensive linemen can use his momentum against him and push him out of the play, which creates a massive hole where Watt was supposed to be. Obviously, we're all willing to deal with his bad plays because his great plays outweigh them by two tons, but it can be a problem.

That tendency and "weakness" is why as an opponent I would run at Watt more often than running away from him.

The biggest problem on defense, however, was the secondary, and in particular second-year corner A.J. Bouye. Even the best corners in the league are going to give up yards to Bengals star receiver A.J. Green, but the scheme and his performance made that even worse. 

"

Bouye in press man. Still not good enough to stop Green. #Texans https://t.co/cOKvg3DbfR

— PDS (@PatDStat) November 26, 2014"

I've said this on here probably a hundred times, so you guys likely know how I feel, but lining up your corners six to eight yards off the line of scrimmage on a short-yardage play puts them in an awful position. Any smart quarterback will throw it to the receiver on a quick hitch and let him do the rest. 

"

Close to 7 yard cushion on 1st and goal from the 6. Bouye too passive here after the ball is caught. #Texans https://t.co/p8LtOsj2U7

— PDS (@PatDStat) November 26, 2014"

Thankfully Darryl Morris was eventually put into the game and performed much better in press against Green. 

"

Morris with no help, man up with Green. Gets the pass deflection. Nice drive on the ball. #Texans https://t.co/DgDQL2lVlK

— PDS (@PatDStat) November 26, 2014"

Think the coaching staff could have helped out their defensive backs regardless of who was on Green by playing them tight to the line more often to take away the quick-hitch passes and also leaving a safety over the top to double-team Green if he broke past the corner?

Seems like a very simple and possibly effective strategy, but the Texans rarely used it against Cincinnati.

The Texans—or any other NFL team—won't win many games with inefficient play from the quarterback, low production from the running game or poor coverage and scheme in the secondary; the Bengals really should have blown the Texans out.

News and Notes

Don Wright/Associated Press

Texans Sign Former Buffalo Quarterback Thad Lewis and Put Ryan Mallett on IR

With Ryan Mallett being put on IR, the Texans quickly signed veteran quarterback Thad Lewis, who has experience in the Bill O'Brien offense. 

"

The Texans have agreed to terms with QB Thad Lewis, pending physical. Lewis was Bill O'Brien's quarterback when he was OC at Duke in 2006.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) November 25, 2014"

Who the backup quarterback will be for the rest of the season remains a question, but my guess is it'll be Lewis, who has also run versions of this offense at the pro level. 

"

Thad Lewis knows the offense from Josh McDaniels in STL. Another reason the #Texans signed him, doesn't have to teach him ground up.

— PDS (@PatDStat) November 26, 2014"

We shouldn't expect anything great from Lewis if he ever gets into a game—he has only five career touchdown passes—but at least he won't face much of a learning curve.

Texans Want Ryan Mallett Back Next Season

I hope the reports about the Texans' desire to re-sign Ryan Mallett this offseason are true. The sample size is extremely small—microscopic, really—but he did show a few flashes of big potential. 

"

#Texans didn’t get to find out if Ryan Mallett is their franchise QB. But they did inform him today they want him back for 2015, source says

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 25, 2014"

"

Likely scenario for #Texans QB Ryan Mallett: A short-term contract extension, while the #Texans bring in a young QB to compete with him.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 25, 2014"

The scenario laid out by Ian Rapoport makes a lot of sense as a plan for next year. Houston likely won't have a draft pick high enough in the first round to take one of the elite quarterbacks like Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston, so whoever they take probably won't be ready to start right away.

The perfect situation would be for them to sign Mallett to a two- or three-year deal without crazy guaranteed money so they can get out of it after just one season, start Mallett for most of if not all of 2015 and then hand it over to the draft pick in 2016.

Unless, of course, Mallett plays well. Then you can trade the draft pick.

That's what I'm sure the Texans hoped would happen with Ryan Fitzpatrick and fourth-round pick Tom Savage, but you know how well that's played out so far.

Injury Report

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Kareem Jackson	Knee	Out
Brian Cushing	Knee	Questionable
D.J. Swearinger	Ankle	Questionable
Jadeveon Clowney	Knee	Questionable
Arian Foster	Groin	Questionable
Akeem Dent	Neck	Questionable
Johnathan Joseph	Knee	Questionable
Ryan Pickett	Back	Questionable
Jeff Tarpinian	Knee	Probable
Mike Mohamed	Hip	Probable
Darryl Morris	Thigh	Probable
Kendrick Lewis	Knee	Probable
Tyson Clabo	Foot	Probable

Source: Pro Football Reference

X-Factor and Matchups to Watch

David Richard/Associated Press

Who Covers Delanie Walker?

As I mentioned on a previous page and as you've probably noticed this season, the Texans linebackers have struggled this season in coverage. Hopefully the Texans will mix up their looks and use their safeties in coverage on tight ends at times, but the bulk of that duty will likely fall on the shoulders of the linebackers.

The last time these two teams met the Texans did a pretty good job on Delanie Walker by allowing him to catch only four passes for 37 yards and most of that came late with the game already decided. Of course, part of the reason for those low totals was without a doubt due to the rookie quarterback throwing him the ball.

Since then, quarterback Zach Mettenberger has become more comfortable with the offense and the speed of the NFL and is starting to put up big numbers. His tight end has been one of the beneficiaries of that improved play, as Walker caught five passes for 155 yards last week against Philadelphia.

Picking a defender to cover Walker will be a tough decision since none of the linebackers cover well in man and neither does safety D.J. Swearinger. Their other safety Kendrick Lewis is probably their best option, but he's also their best deep-cover defender.

I say "best" loosely since the Texans have allowed the most receptions over 40 yards in the league, but his best role is still playing a deep zone to protect the corners instead of playing man-up on a tight end.

Tough decisions will have to be made.

Which Receiver Will A.J. Bouye Be Lined Up Against?

Obviously no one on the Titans' group of receivers comes close to A.J. Green, but considering how poorly A.J. Bouye played last week, his matchup will be one to watch closely. Hopefully Darryl Morris takes away some playing time, but Bouye will be on the field, and when he is, who should they put him on?

Both Kendall Wright and Nate Washington had receptions of more than 40 yards in their last meeting, and Justin Hunter leads the team—and ranks third-best in the league—with 17.8 yards per reception; Washington is also in the top 10 in that stat.

Mettenberger has a cannon for an arm, and his three top receivers are all proven deep threats. Expect the Titans to test the Texans deep early and often with their propensity to give up big plays in the passing game.

X-Factor of the Week: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Alright, I know: It's too obvious to name the quarterback as the X-factor, but seriously, name another player that will impact their chances of winning more than Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Texans won't win if they're severely outplayed at that position.

Being an X-factor doesn't necessarily mean that the player will be counted upon to make a positive impact. Looking at it that way, the obvious choices would be guys like J.J. Watt or Arian Foster.

With Fitzpatrick, it's more that they need him to not lose the game with multiple turnovers than needing him to win the game with a great performance.

More than just the turnovers, they'll need Fitzpatrick to operate the offense with the tempo getting up to the line and by getting rid of the ball quickly like Ryan Mallett did against Cleveland. Hopefully he picked up on a few things while watching from the sideline.

They can scheme around Fitzpatrick's weak arm to some degree, but he has to get rid of the ball more quickly to help out the offensive line, and he needs to hurry up to the line instead of walking the offense up to hopefully fatigue the defense and exploit any formation advantages by catching them in a heavy-set or sub-package.

We all knew that Fitzpatrick was a flawed quarterback with many weaknesses, but the play of Mallett against Cincinnati exposed a few others that had been blamed on different parts of the team. He's a 10-year veteran, no excuse for not improving with tempo and a quicker release.

Prediction

David Richard/Associated Press

The Tennessee Titans are a team the Texans "should" beat, as "should" most of the other teams in the NFL; the Titans have played pretty poorly this season, as their 2-9 record would indicate.

However, their rookie quarterback has played better since their first meeting, and with the situation of losing Ryan Mallett to injury and having to go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Texans, there's a reasonable concern that their morale or confidence could be down entering this game.

That's just a guess on my part, but it would be understandable for the guys on the roster to be frustrated and a little down after being given a glimmer of hope and a glimpse at the future with a physically talented quarterback and then having all of that ripped away with a return to Fitzpatrick.

It could impact how they prepare mentally and how intense they are out on the field, or it could mean nothing, but signs of frustration carrying out to the field should be watched for on Sunday.

Again, though the Titans are a really bad football team, so the Texans are capable of beating them even if they come into the game a little down.

As mentioned earlier, their rookie quarterback has played better since the first time the Texans and Titans met on the field this season. Mettenberger's stat line didn't look bad by the end of that game, but most of his positive stats were put up late with the game out of reach already; he was inept when it mattered.

However, over the Titans' last two games—Pittsburgh and Philadelphia—Mettenberger has averaged just over 300 yards passing per game with four touchdowns, two interceptions and a 96.5 quarterback rating.

He also averaged 9.65 yards per attempt over those two games, which is a full yard better than Aaron Rodgers' numbers for the season, who leads the league in that stat. Mettenberger is still a rookie on a bad team, but he won't be the confused and overwhelmed player the Texans saw for most of the last game.

Where should the Texans have a big advantage if it's not at quarterback? If Arian Foster plays, the Texans should dominate the ground game against Tennessee.

This season, the Titans rank 28th in rushing yards on offense, 32nd in rushing yards allowed on defense, 21st in rushing touchdowns scored, 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 24th in yards per rushing attempt allowed. They've been awful on both sides of the ball all season long.

Last week, Philadelphia out-gained the Titans by 112 yards—164-52—on the ground. In their last matchup against Houston, the Texans out-gained the Titans by even more—176-yard differential—including Foster's best game of the season with 151 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 carries.

Coach Bill O'Brien was quoted earlier this week as saying that "Arian Foster has a good chance of playing," which in coach speak with him has usually meant that the player would play. O'Brien tries to give away next to nothing with injuries, but my gut feeling is that Foster will play this week. 

"

#khou #texans Bill O'Brien confirms that Arian Foster practiced today & he feels Foster will play Sunday. pic.twitter.com/e8CC0ppDcZ

— Matt Musil (@KHOUSportsMatt) November 26, 2014"

If he does, then the Texans should be able to pull out a close win on the strength of running the ball well and stopping the run on defense to make the Titans a one-dimensional offense.

Prediction: Texans 24, Titans 23