Shawne Williams Proving to Be Miami Heat's Biggest Surprise

If there was much reason to be optimistic about Shawne Williams in 2014-15, it sure escaped our notice.

Entering this season, the 6’9” journeyman small forward had bounced around a handful of teams, and leagues, without much to show for it. He’d had pit stops with the Indiana Pacers, the Dallas Mavericks, the New York Knicks, the New Jersey Nets and the Los Angeles Lakers—with stints in the D-League and the Chinese Basketball Association mixed in for good measure.

Entering his age-28 season, Williams, per Basketball-Reference.com, had a career win shares per 48 minutes that was half of the league average and hadn’t shot better than 40 percent from the floor in an NBA campaign since 2010-11. When the Heat signed the No. 17 pick in the 2006 NBA draft this offseason, the move was met with yawns.

Which makes what he’s done since all the more incredible. Williams has been a revelation for Miami, certainly the biggest overachiever on the team and perhaps the single biggest reason that—despite up-and-down play and a surfeit of problems both major and minor, correctable and intractable—the Heat are still 8-6 through 14 games and perched in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. He’s been a difference-maker.

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His counting stats don’t jump out at you. He’s averaging 10.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists in 28.8 minutes a night, but this obscures his true value. With 17 percent of the season down, Williams, according to Basketball-Reference.com, leads Miami in win shares with 1.6. On a team with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, an anonymous small forward has been the most productive player on the four-time defending Eastern Conference champs.

Wins produced tells a similar story. According to Box Score Geeks, Williams is pacing Miami with 1.8 wins produced. This is good for 22nd in the NBA. On a per-minute basis, he’s been more than twice as productive as the average small forward.

The key to Williams’ success has been his three-point shooting. He’s been lights-out night in and night out. Six times this young season the forward has hit three or more triples on better than 50 percent shooting. In consecutive games against the Pacers and the Atlanta Hawks in mid-November, Williams was 9-of-11 from three.

On the season, Williams is connecting on 2.2 triples a night, tied for 11th in the NBA. His 50 percent mark on these shots is fifth in the league.

The Association has taken notice. Williams’ head coach has, too.

Erik Spoelstra told the Miami Herald’s Joseph Goodman that Williams has carte blanche to fire away from outside:

"

He’s in this role right now, and we’ll see where he goes from here, but he’s versatile and he brings a toughness, so the things that he brings I like…But he’s that type of shooter. I will never say anything even if he’s contested and has someone draped all over him. He has the absolute neon green light.

"

All of this success raises a question though: What will happen when the threes stop dropping?

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Williams' effectiveness is almost entirely contingent on his offensive efficiency—which is itself contingent on his stellar outside shooting. Williams' 50 percent mark from three is itself remarkable, but so is, per Basketball-Refernce.com, his 61.1 percent average from 16-23 feet. That’s unusual efficacy.

But it’s unlikely to last. Williams’ 67.6 true shooting percentage—good for 13th in the NBA according to ESPN.com—is more than 15 percentage points above his career average. His 50 percent mark from three is, likewise, 15 percentage points better than what he’s done in his career. He’s due for a reversion to the mean. And when it comes, it’s not clear what else he has to fall back on.

According to Box Score Geeks, Williams—for his career and in 2014-15—is, relative to his position, below average with respect to rebounds, assists and steals, and he commits fouls more than usual. It's a fine trick, but he's a one-trick pony.

In other words, in order to continue to produce at even an above-average level—let alone the All-Star clip he’s at now—Williams will have to keep hitting threes at a better rate than Ray Allen did in any of his 18 seasons in the NBA. At risk of understatement, that's pretty unlikely. 

In that way, Shawne Williams' scorching start is a lot like life itself: We should enjoy it while it lasts, because the evidence overwhelmingly suggests that it won’t.