Kyle Orton Proving Worth for Bills, but Is It Enough for Playoff Berth?

The Buffalo Bills earned a dominant 38-3 victory over the New York Jets on Monday night to move to 6-5 and remain in the AFC playoff race.

The Bills bested the Jets in literally every phase of the game. Two different receivers and two different running backs scored touchdowns. The team registered seven total sacks and blocked a punt into the end zone for another touchdown.

When the Bills play at a high level in all three phases, like they did on Monday night, it is fairly easy to envision Buffalo as a real postseason contender.

However, there have been a number of times this season when the team hasn't played up to par in all phases and has more closely resembled the also-ran Bills teams of years past than the one playing meaningful football in November.

We saw one of those less-than-stellar performances as recently as Week 11. 

Against the Miami Dolphins the Bills managed just nine points and 237 yards of total offense. While the defense held Miami to 22 points, settling for field goals on all three scoring drives cost Buffalo any realistic chance of winning the game.

The difference between that game and the beatdown the Bills produced on Monday night was the performance of quarterback Kyle Orton.

While Orton did not throw an interception in either game, his performance on Monday was much more crisp and complete. His ball placement was solid, he connected on deep passes, went through his progressions and beat the blitz as a seasoned veteran should. Per ESPN Stats & Info:

The end result was a 24-of-32 performance that yielded 230 yards and two touchdowns. 

Both of his touchdowns came in the first half and allowed Buffalo to take a 14-3 lead into halftime. Had the Bills settled for field goals there, the lead may have been as low as three points, which would have completely changed the complexion of the final two quarters.

A three-point lead is exactly what the Bills took into halftime against the Dolphins. A big reason why Buffalo's early drives stalled in that game was a very off day from Orton.

Against the Dolphins, Orton rushed several throws and often seemed to hurry though his progressions to find the checkdown before it was necessary. This led to several over- and under-throws and a frequent failure to sustain drives.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Orton was the second-least efficient quarterback in Week 11.

The end result was three field goals and a 13-point loss to a division rival and fellow playoff contender.

Since Orton was inserted into the lineup in Week 5, he has gone 4-3 as a starter. Only once have the Bills won a game when his completion percentage was below 61.0 percent. That was against the Jets in Week 8, a game that saw Geno Smith yanked and replaced by Michael Vick.

	Comp	Att	Comp %	TDs	INTs
In Losses	75	125	60.0	3	1
In Wins	95	135	70.3	9	2

Only once have the Bills lost a game in which Orton has completed 61 percent of his passes or more. That came against the New England Patriots in Week 6.

Not-so-coincidentally, the Bills won both games where EJ Manuel completed more than 60 percent of his passes and lost the two where he did not.

The bottom line here is that while Orton brings the type of veteran presence that Manuel did not, the Bills' fortunes still hinge on efficiency. 

Finding the end zone is also key for the Bills, no matter how well that sixth-ranked defense (321.6 yards per game allowed) is playing. The Bills have won only one game this season when scoring 17 points or fewer and have lost only once when finding the end zone three times or more.

Week 13	vs. Browns
Week 14	@ Broncos
Week 15	vs. Packers
Week 16	@ Raiders
Week 17	@ Patriots

Orton has the experience and the tools to guide the Bills to the postseason this year. However, to get this 6-5 team there, he will need to play more consistently like he did against New York on Monday and a heck of a lot less like he did just one week earlier.

At 6-5, the Bills currently sit behind the New England Patriots (9-2) and the Miami Dolphins (6-5) in the AFC East race. Buffalo also sits a game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Diego Chargers (all 7-4) in the AFC wild-card race. 

With critical games against the Browns, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers upcoming, Orton isn't going to have to prove he has what it takes immediately.