What to Expect from Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings Offense in Week 12

The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers will continue their 53-year rivalry this coming Sunday at TCF Bank Stadium in downtown Minneapolis. With the Vikings struggling to get anything going on offense and the Packers clicking on all cylinders over the past two weeks, this contest has the making of a blowout. Sustaining offensive drives and keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field will be Minnesota's only chance to make this game competitive, but expecting this to happen would be foolish.

Minnesota may have missed the playoffs last season, but the emergence of then-rookie wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson had many optimistic about what the future may hold. This optimism continued to grow when the Vikings hired offensive mastermind Norv Turner to replace Bill Musgrave and his painfully simple offensive scheme.

Wade Payne/Associated Press

With Patterson on the verge of a breakout season and Turner part of the coaching staff, only one offensive concern remained—Christian Ponder. In what has apparently become his signature move, general manager Rick Spielman traded back into the first round of the 2014 NFL draft and selected highly touted Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, effectively ending the Ponder problem.

Minnesota's offensive lineup included two Pro Bowl linemen, arguably the best running back in the NFL, multiple athletically gifted wide receivers and a tight end built from the same mold as Rob Gronkowski. The stage was set for Bridgewater. He was blessed with everything a rookie quarterback could ask for.

What could possibly go wrong? Everything.

In a matter of weeks the Vikings offense was in shambles. Following an impressive Week 1 victory over the St. Louis Rams, superstar running back Adrian Peterson was placed on the commissioner's exempt list following an indictment alleging he physically harmed his four-year-old son with a switch. Just a couple of days later, wide receiver Jerome Simpson found himself in trouble with the law again and was subsequently released by the team, handicapping Minnesota's offense even further.

After their second loss in as many weeks, the Vikings were informed that right guard Brandon Fusco and then-starting quarterback Matt Cassel would miss the remainder of the 2014 season due to injury. Shortly after, tight end Kyle Rudolph, who also was injured against the New Orleans Saints, was ruled out for six weeks due to a sports hernia.

With Cassel injured, Bridgewater was thrust into starting much earlier than originally expected. As fate would have it, the man responsible for protecting his blind side, left tackle Matt Kalil, had become as effective in pass protection as a traffic cone and the last remaining offensive playmaker, Patterson, was struggling with both his route running and creating separation at the line of scrimmage.

Given these dire circumstances, why would anyone expect the Vikings offense to be remotely dangerous?

Admittedly, Minnesota's "situation" has improved over time, with rookie running back Jerick McKinnon quickly developing, Rudolph returning from injury and tight ends Chase Ford and Rhett Ellison quietly providing solid production. Still, the Vikings' anemic offense ranks 30th in total yards per game and 28th in points per game.

In their 21-13 loss to the Chicago Bears last weekend, the Vikings offense totaled a whopping 243 yards on 46 plays and averaged a shameful 4.6 plays per drive. In comparison, Jay Cutler, who has been no better than mediocre this season, passed for 330 yards—becoming the first quarterback this season to reach the 300-yard mark against the Vikings defense—which amounts to 87 more yards than the Vikings had in total.

Despite these embarrassing offensive totals, Minnesota still had a chance to tie the game with a touchdown and a two-point conversion on their final drive. However, if the Vikings offense plays poorly again this weekend against the Packers, I can assure you, this game will be over by halftime. 

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From @EliasSports: The #Packers are the 5th team in NFL history to have 50 points in consecutive games

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) November 17, 2014"

Green Bay, who is averaging 54 points a game over the past two weeks, will turn Minnesota's unsustained offensive drives into points in a hurry.

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Packers have scored more points in their last 2 games (108), than the Raiders have scored in their last 6 (101).

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) November 17, 2014"

Embarrassing for the Oakland Raiders, huh? Well Minnesota fans, the Vikings have actually been even worse at scoring points over the same timespan, totaling 90 points over their past six games.

In fairness, the Vikings are starting a rookie at both quarterback and running back. Additionally, Patterson is playing in just his second NFL season and Jarius Wright is in the midst of his third season. Growing pains are real and player development takes time, but there is simply no excuse for how poorly the Vikings offense has consistently played this entire season, with exception to a Week 4 outburst against the Atlanta Falcons and their last-ranked defense.

Patterson Must Step Up

With rookies at quarterback and running back, somebody has to step up for the Vikings to exceed offensive expectations this Sunday. That man is Patterson.

The other candidates for this role include Greg Jennings and Rudolph. Rudolph is still attempting to get back to full speed, according to Mike Zimmer via Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune, so he gets a pass.

"

Coach Mike Zimmer said that #Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph was "a little bit rusty" in his return: http://t.co/WGuMzRQlyu

— Matt Vensel (@mattvensel) November 17, 2014"

And the veteran Jennings is a bit banged up as well, which brings us back to Patterson.

"

Mike Zimmer said Jarius Wright (hamstring) and Greg Jennings (ribs) seem to be OK.

— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) November 17, 2014"

Patterson was the first name that came up when Peterson was suspended. He was coming off a solid performance against the Rams, which was preceded by a five-game stretch to end the 2013 season where he scored six total touchdowns. He was the guy then and he is the guy now.

Weeks	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
1	5	3	26	0
2	7	4	56	0
3	5	4	61	0
4	4	2	38	0
5	4	2	8	0
6	8	2	15	0
7	4	2	9	1
8	12	6	86	0
9	7	1	9	0
11	3	2	24	0
Total	59	28	332	1

Note: Vikings were on bye Week 10

Patterson is not having a breakout season, but his coach still has faith in him. 

"

Mike Zimmer said Vikings will continue to be patient with Cordarrelle Patterson. Says he's young.

— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) November 17, 2014"

Upon further review of the above chart, there are a couple of strange trends.

Patterson, who was consistently producing average numbers at the beginning of this season, has seen his production fall off the table since Week 3, with exception to a strong Week 8 performance. In addition, the percentage of his targets that have resulted in a reception have dramatically decreased as well.

Coincidentally, Week 3 marks the last game Cassel started at quarterback for the Vikings. Patterson caught 11-of-17 targets (64.7 percent) in Weeks 1-3, but has caught only 15-of-38 targets (39.4 percent) since, which excludes statistics accumulated with Ponder at quarterback in Week 5.

In games Cassel started, Patterson averaged 5.6 targets per game. Strangely, in games Bridgewater has started, Patterson is averaging 6.3 targets per game, yet Patterson has caught only four more passes with Bridgewater at the helm in three more games.

With that said, the question becomes: Is Bridgewater failing Patterson or is Patterson failing Bridgewater? Per usual, it is not solely one player's fault. These statistics scream chemistry issues, which means Bridgewater and Patterson are failing one another.

These chemistry issues were on full display last weekend. Oddly enough, both Patterson and Bridgewater put together subpar performances, as revealed by the chart below.

Teddy Bridgewater	18 Completions	27 Attempts	64.2 Completion Percentage	158 Passing Yards	5.6 YPA	1 TD	1 INT	21.3 QBR	76.2 RTG
Cordarrelle Patterson	2 Receptions	3 Targets	66.7 Reception Percentage	24 Receiving Yards	12.0 YPC	0 TD	17 Long	N/A	N/A

Let's take a look at this chemistry issue on film. In this first example (below), which occurred with 11:39 left in the second quarter, Patterson is in the process of breaking away from coverage in to a wide-open right side of the field. Bridgewater, who has his eyes downfield in Patterson's general direction, has a perfect view of Patterson breaking into space. However, he also notices a Bears safety hovering over Patterson, roughly 15 yards downfield.

Although Bridgewater does have (more than enough) time to deliver a pass to Patterson before the Bears safety can make up the coverage difference, he opts for a safer pass to running back Matt Asiata, which results in an incompletion.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

This second example occurred at the 2:46 mark in the second quarter. With the two-minute warning quickly approaching and the Vikings not yet at midfield, Turner calls a play to work the ball down the field. On this particular play, Wright has been asked to run a seam route down the right side of the field and Patterson has been asked to run a 15-yard hitch route.

The explanation for how this play develops is simple: Bridgewater does not even look in Patterson's general direction. While Wright may be the No. 1 option on this play, he is tightly covered by a Bears defensive back. On the other hand, Patterson runs a good route and the hitch creates significant separation. Had Bridgewater taken a glance in his direction, this play would have been an easy completion, barring an errant throw.

Regardless, Bridgewater lofts a deep pass downfield in Wright's direction, which results in another incompletion.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

While Bridgewater is at fault in the two above examples, Patterson is the problem in the following example. In this example, we have reached the third quarter and the clock reads 2:17. 

As shown below, Patterson is clearly the No. 1 option on this particular play, as proven by Bridgewater's initial fixation on him. However, Patterson is redirected at the line of scrimmage by a Bears defensive back, causing him to run a slow and inefficient route.

Naturally, Bridgewater moves on to his next read, as he assumes Patterson is no longer a viable option.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Bridgewater made the right decision to move on to his next read, but had he made a stereotypical rookie quarterback error and stared down his No. 1 option, this likely would have resulted in a Bridgewater-Patterson completion—and potentially even a touchdown given Patterson's elite ability to make defenders miss tackles.

As you can see, Patterson manages to rebound from being initially tied up at the line of scrimmage by Bears rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller (No. 23). He breaks loose into the open, but Bridgewater has moved on and he isn't coming back. What was the result of this play? You guessed it, an incompletion to McKinnon in the middle of the field.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

With only slightly more than half a quarter to play, a Bridgewater pass finally results in a Patterson reception. Here, Patterson is going to run a 15-yard dig up the left side of the field. As you can see, Bridgewater and Patterson are nearly in sync, as Patterson releases from his route just as Bridgewater begins to load up.

Although Bridgewater's pass would be a bit high, Patterson is able to snag it out of the air and fall forward for an extra two yards and a 17-yard pass completion.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

To review, Bridgewater and Patterson both have flaws and this strains chemistry. However, the two most important offensive players in the Vikings' future are capable of getting on the same page.

Bridgewater appears to trust Jennings, Wright and even Charles Johnson, who caught a team-high six passes on seven targets for a team-high 87 yards against the Bears last Sunday, more than Patterson. This is not to say that he never throws in his direction, as proven by Patterson's 12 targets in Week 8. However, Bridgewater seemingly avoids throwing risky passes to him.

In addition, he doesn't fully trust himself yet either, which is normal for a rookie quarterback. Bridgewater should definitely have thrown in Patterson's direction in example one, but he either does not trust himself to throw that pass accurately or he doesn't trust Patterson to make a play on the ball if coverage closes (extremely) quickly.

It may take some time, but Bridgewater and Patterson will simultaneously build chemistry and refine their techniques over the next few seasons, which should create a dangerous quarterback-wide receiver pairing—hopefully sooner rather than later.

In the meantime, Patterson is still very capable of making plays; he just waits until Week 13 to get going. Next week!

Final Thoughts

Assuming Kalil struggles again this weekend, is it time for him to head to the bench? The biggest concern here is that the Vikings don't have any other options. On the contrary, left guard Charlie Johnson would likely welcome the opportunity to move back to his original position.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Johnson allowed a total of 16 sacks from 2008-11, compared to Kalil, who has already allowed 11 sacks this season. In fairness, eight of his 16 sacks allowed came in 2011 with the Vikings or the final year before he was moved to left guard.

Johnson's past production aside, Joe Berger has been exceptional at right guard and Vladimir Ducasse would likely be an improvement over Johnson at left guard. Given that Johnson is a liability in the interior, moving him back outside—and bumping Kalil to the bench—could really only make the situation better, as it would be hard for Johnson to match Kalil's awful totals.

LT Charlie Johnson—LG Vladimir Ducasse—C John Sullivan—RG Joe Berger—RT Phil Loadholt

It is hard to imagine Johnson as an upgrade at LT for many NFL teams, but it truly does not get much worse than 2014 Kalil.

For those curious about where 2014 fifth-round pick guard David Yankey is and why he has not been active this season, allow Chris Tomasson of the Saint Paul Pioneer Press to explain:

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Mike Zimmer said David Yankey has got "to get stronger.'' That's why he hasn't been active.

— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) October 31, 2014"

Given that Johnson doesn't exactly set the bar very high, it would be nice to see Yankey get a chance.

The Vikings not only need to develop Bridgewater, but they must protect their investment (from injury) as well. In my humble opinion, Kalil probably has two more weeks to find his groove before he becomes a full-time benchwarmer.

My Score Prediction: Vikings 13, Packers 38

This game forecasts as a blowout because it will be. The Packers' creative blitz packages will give the Vikings offensive linemen problems and, as a result, the offense will struggle to sustain drives, again.

Fear not Vikings fans, Ben Tate is on his way...

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Vikings claim RB Ben Tate one day after he was released by Browns. (via @FieldYates) pic.twitter.com/bjKyr2IlAd

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 19, 2014"

For more Vikings news and analysis, follow me on Twitter @RobertReidellMN