Colts TE Coby Fleener Should Continue to Produce After Dwayne Allen Injury

While the Indianapolis Colts' embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots was a devastating blow on Sunday night, the play of tight end Coby Fleener was one of the few positives that stuck out. 

The third-year tight end (who I am contractually obliged to say went to Stanford) has been stuck in the shadows this season, as the return of Dwayne Allen has cut into his targets, not to mention his attention in the media. And it's not unwarranted, as Allen has been one of the league's best tight ends while Fleener has continued to bounce around the median. 

Player	Catches	Yards	TDs	DVOA	PFF Grade
Dwayne Allen	26	374	7	34.3%	+10.2
Coby Fleener	29	439	4	6.7%	-4.2

But Fleener did much to help his cause on Sunday night, as he shredded one of the league's worst TE-defending defenses for seven catches and 144 yards. It's the second time in consecutive games that he's gone over 50 yards, although he's only done it in three games all season. 

Now with Allen day-to-day with an ankle sprain and unlikely to play Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, per Mike Chappell of RTV6, Fleener will be asked to step up once again. 

Fortunately, there is production to be had for Fleener, as Pep Hamilton's offense has been very friendly to tight ends this season. 

The only game in which an Indianapolis tight end hasn't scored a touchdown this season was the Colts' loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2. Since then, Fleener and Allen have combined to average six catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. With Allen out, that production has to go somewhere. Considering how well Fleener played on Sunday, he should be expected to carry the bulk of that load. 

The one area where Fleener has exceeded Allen this year is deep shots. Fleener has been targeted past 20 yards 11 times for six catches and 166 yards this year, while Allen has only been targeted five times (three catches, 78 yards), per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Due to the deeper targets, Fleener has caught less than 60 percent of his targets, while Allen sits at over 70 percent, per Pro Football Focus. Fleener's 59.2 percent catch rate is dead last among tight ends with 35 or more targets. 

With Allen out, we could see a few more short targets and easy yards for Fleener, although that wasn't the case on Sunday against the Patriots. Fleener caught all seven targets on Sunday, the most devastating of which came on deep routes. Just three of those passes were aimed within 10 yards, resulting in just 33 yards, while three were deeper than 20 yards, resulting in 89 yards. 

Some of that was due to scheme, as the Colts used leveled routes to get Fleener open against the Patriots' zone coverages on Sunday. 

NFL Game Rewind

Take this 22-yard reception from Sunday. The Patriots are in a Cover 3, and T. Y. Hilton's streak down the seam brings the corner and safety deep while the shallow linebacker is forced to follow Jack Doyle in the flat. The result is a huge window for Fleener in the boundary intermediate zone. 

But the real positive sign from Sunday was Fleener's ability to beat man coverage, specifically against Brandon Browner when lined up to the outside. 

Fleener beat Browner twice on the right side, using his size and speed to get Browner turned the wrong way. 

Browner lines up tight on Fleener on the right side, and Fleener is going to run a streak down the sideline. The tight end gets Browner flat-footed with a hesitation, then uses his strength to knock the cornerback off balance. Then the speed finishes off the play, as Browner can't recover any ground and Fleener is wide-open down the sideline. 

Just two plays later, Luck went Fleener's way again against Browner. After a slight push-off to get separation on the back-shoulder throw, Fleener makes an excellent toe-tapping catch on the sideline to convert on 3rd-and-10. 

NFL Game Rewind

While Fleener has lined up on the outside before, this was quite easily the most notable production the Colts have gotten from him in that scenario. The Colts should be able to scheme Fleener production over the middle and in the red zone, but if he can continue to use his physical attributes well in one-on-one coverage, we could begin to see more consistent production from him. 

First up is the Jacksonville Jaguars, against whom Fleener had 49 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. The rest of the Colts schedule will be fairly light, playing Washington, Houston and Tennessee with road trips to Cleveland and Dallas mixed in. The Colts won't need Fleener to have huge games in order to finish strong, but with Allen potentially missing a game or two, they'll have an opportunity to get Fleener more looks.

If Pep Hamilton can use Fleener's strong play to diversify the Colts passing attack, Indianapolis could be much more dangerous once the playoffs come around.