Why 2014-15 Needs to Be a Banner Year for the Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies sit atop the perennially potent Western Conference these days. And they'd better make the most of it because from that considerable height, they can probably see the change coming on the horizon.
Marc Gasol—the trimmed down, suddenly point-hungry, two-way dynamo center—will reach unrestricted free agency this summer. And in a free-agent class marked by lots of talent and youth (Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, etc.), he'll stand out as the only proven franchise cornerstone.
Gasol has played his entire career in Memphis, and as he nears his 30th birthday in January, the allure of chasing a change—or perhaps a max-level payday—could result in his leaving the Grizz. At the very least, there'll be plenty of teams trying to entice him.
Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reports both the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs will have interest (why wouldn't they?), though Gasol isn't necessarily the type drawn to bright lights and Memphis has played in the last four postseasons: "Otherwise, staying in Memphis will be appealing to Gasol, whose team is a legitimate championship contender. The Grizzlies can offer Gasol the most money, and he has grown to love the city, having lived there since high school when Pau broke in with the Grizzlies."
Gasol is posting career bests in player efficiency rating and usage rate (so far), per Basketball-Reference.com. Contract years typically provide players with extra motivation, but perhaps the loyal Gasol is more concerned with showing the Grizzlies he's worth the max than inducing big offers from the outside.
Either way, the point is this: Gasol is Memphis' foundation, its best player and, in a way, its native son. And there is no guarantee he'll be back next year.
Losing him would take away many of the qualities that define the Grizzlies.
Like elite defense, for example.
Memphis: Steady Now, Unstable Later?
Memphis' defense ranks among the league's top five in efficiency this season, per NBA.com, and Gasol's imperceptible shuffles and brilliant positioning are, as usual, the biggest reason why. Not only that, but the big Spaniard is emblematic of the Grizzlies' valuable core continuity.
He, Zach Randolph, Mike Conley and Tony Allen have been together since the 2010-11 season, and removing one piece (let alone the most important in Gasol) from that group would destroy team chemistry.
A division title would be impressive. A return to the conference finals (which Memphis reached in 2012-13) would be a laudable achievement.
But the very best way to ensure Gasol sticks around is to do something this group has never done: reach the NBA Finals. You'd have to think that would help keep the core intact, while also attracting the free-agent help necessary to prolong its run going forward.
As stable as Memphis' core is, there's actually a downside to its steady predictability. The Grizzlies are who they are. This is a high-floor team, which is a good thing—but it's also a squad whose ceiling may be fixed just an inch or two below that of the league's other top contenders.
If anything, the Grizzlies have to make the most of this season because there's little prospect for organic growth. In fact, the immediate future will almost certainly be one of decline.
Consider: Conley is quietly in his eighth season. And while he's a fantastic two-way guard, he's not on an upward career trajectory anymore. Instead, we're witnessing his plateau.
Randolph is already 33, and his efficiency (both as a scorer and demolisher of opponents' will) is right in line with his marks of the past decade.
Still, we can't expect him to do anything but decline going forward.
Similarly, Allen is who he is: a soon-to-be 33-year-old defensive monster whose offense is almost entirely composed of smart cuts. There is no capacity for growth in his game.
All that sounds pessimistic, but it's really just meant to offer a frank look at where Memphis is in its overall trajectory. The Grizzlies are in great position right now, but there's a very real urgency surrounding the franchise.
Troubling Signs and Opportunity
Memphis will go to war with anyone, and it'll always have a chance to win a series—no matter how imposing the competition. But its hold on conference primacy is a tenuous one.
Memphis has been very good so far, running up a 9-1 record that tops the league. But a deeper look into its performance shows others have been better. The Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers, Toronto Raptors and even the New Orleans Pelicans have higher net ratings, per NBA.com.
And the Rockets, Dubs and Blazers have all amassed those figures while dealing with injuries to key players.
| Grizzlies | 9-1 | +6.2 | None | 0 |
| Rockets | 9-1 | +10.2 | Terrence Jones/Patrick Beverley | 6/6 |
| Warriors | 8-2 | 10.6 | David Lee | 8 |
| Blazers | 7-3 | +8.7 | Nicolas Batum | 3 |
Meanwhile, Gasol, Conley, Allen and Randolph have started all 10 games so far.
In addition, Memphis' schedule has been Charmin-soft to this point. Of its first 10 opponents, just three were playoff teams a year ago: the Indiana Pacers, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Charlotte Bobcats.
All three of those clubs have fallen on seriously hard times this season.
Frankly, the Grizzlies record lacks a single impressive win—unless you count the incredible comeback against the Sacramento Kings. But that was really more about excitement than quality.
At the same time, Memphis has been rolling for a while now. According to Marc Stein of ESPN.com, nobody has had a better winning percentage in the calendar year of 2014 than the Grizzlies and their .729 mark as of Nov. 10.
It's hard to ignore a run that long. But the legitimacy of Memphis' current 9-1 mark isn't the critical issue here. The team's need to capitalize on it is.
Now or (Possibly) Never
The Grizzlies, as they've been plenty of times before, are dark-horse contenders. Their track record, defense-first approach and general willingness to go toe-to-toe with absolutely anyone has made them an under-the-radar darling this year and in seasons past.
Nobody doubts the Grizzlies' potency this year. Well, at least nobody who's been following the league closely.
But if Gasol leaves as a free agent, grit and grind will grind to a halt in short order. And even if he stays, all the toughness and chemistry in the world may not be enough to overcome the difficulty of winning with a core whose key members are approaching their mid-30s.
I guess that means the Grizzlies had better bear down.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
