Playing Pretender or Contender with Current Crop of NBA's Top Teams
Disguises aren't permanent in the NBA.
Early-season basketball is a hotbed for optimistic performances. Small sample sizes allow teams to mask their imperfections and ceilings in abnormally high winning percentages, complicating attempts to make sense of the championship picture.
Smart people such as us, however, cannot be fooled. We see NBA teams for what they really are. We know the surprising Milwaukee Bucks aren't preparing for an Eastern Conference takeover, and we know the lead-blowing Sacramento Kings aren't fitting one another for championship rings.
More importantly, we understand how far each of the league's top outfits can actually travel. These aren't surprise squads like the Kings. They aren't even the expectedly sound squads like the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns. They're the ones that, as of now, are supposed to chase championships.
Some of those teams are for real and are equipped to make it out of their respective conference. Others won't be able to overcome their limitations. Using what we've seen thus far, along with a healthy dose of statistics and subjective outlooks, we're going to spot the impostors.
Try as they might, these pretenders cannot hide among the contenders for long.
The Not-Yet-There Squads
1 of 9
Toronto Raptors
As one of the league's most balanced teams, the Raptors have a chance of wreaking havoc in the wide-open Eastern Conference. If by some miracle they made it to the NBA Finals, though, a quick exit would await. They can't hang with the big boys just yet.
Washington Wizards
Maybe when Bradley Beal returns, the Wizards offense won't be so woof. Until such a time, they remain on the outside looking in at where they might be one day soon.
Portland Trail Blazers
Start talking about a Blazers championship once they're not so reliant on their starting five being made of indestructible steel.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Even if both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook return, stay healthy and play dominant basketball, the Thunder will struggle to record 50 victories. In the event they successfully reach the postseason, there's a good chance they'll have to dethrone three top-four seeds en route to the Finals. So, yeah. Not this year, Oklahoma City. Not this year.
San Antonio Spurs
2 of 9
Let's start with the formalities of all formalities.
Yes, the San Antonio Spurs are off to a fitful start. Their offense ranks in the bottom eight in efficiency, Tim Duncan is being forced to log more minutes than he has since 2008-09 (32.0) and three-pointers aren't falling (32.0 percent). They're barely playing .500 basketball through eight games, a blowout win over the moribund Los Angeles Lakers notwithstanding.
However, this isn't a time to panic. There's never a time to panic when it comes to the Spurs. They're still a top-five defensive team, despite their slow start, and Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Manu Ginobili won't clang three after three after three off the rim forever. The offense will come.
When it matters most—and when Gregg Popovich doesn't decide to rest everyone and their second cousins, thrice removed by divorce—this team turns it loose. Three of its first four victories came against the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks, all of which are dangerous playoff squads.
These Spurs—the reigning champs who have faced the league's toughest schedule to date—are going to be fine.
Verdict: Contender
Memphis Grizzlies
3 of 9
Who's better than the Memphis Grizzlies?
Right now, no one.
Winning eight of their first nine games has the Grizzlies tied with the Houston Rockets for the league's best record. They're once again a top-five defensive team, and Marc Gasol is doing a whole lot of everything. Their start to 2014-15 is promising.
Not convincing.
The Grizzlies, like always, will grit and grind their way to a playoff berth. They may even wind up with a top-four seed. But their offense still isn't good enough. It ranks 16th in efficiency, doesn't fire nearly enough threes (14.2 a night) and too much of its point-piling potential is tied to Courtney Lee playing beyond his means.
None of the Grizzlies' victories have come against heavy hitters either. The Thunder didn't have Durant or Westbrook, the Indiana Pacers are nobodies without Paul George, the new Charlotte Hornets are playing like the old Charlotte Bobcats, they barely cut down the worst Los Angeles Lakers team ever, and it took Lee's tenths-of-a-second heroics for them to beat the Kings.
Defense will carry these Grizzlies into the playoffs. Deep into the playoffs, even. But as we've seen before, in each of the last four years, their imbalance will betray them at some point—even if it's during the Western Conference Finals.
Verdict: Pretender
Houston Rockets
4 of 9
Pencil me in as a believer. The Rockets have earned my vote of confidence. And yours.
Profound conclusions shouldn't be drawn roughly 10 percent into the regular season. Houston's conference-championing start may prove unsustainable. But these Rockets have done enough to show they've changed.
James Harden is playing like his beard actually does have superpowers. He's basically a score-first point guard these days, and the Rockets—despite losing their No. 3 and No. 4 scorers from last season—were enjoying a top-eight offense before Friday night's sputtering win over the Philadelphia 76ers because of him. Trevor Ariza is also burying threes (44.1 percent) like he's been possessed by the spirits of Kyle Korver and Stephen Curry.
Credit head coach Kevin McHale, too. His rotations have been godly. The 1980s star is embracing the three-ball, running one-in, four-out lineups that have the Rockets pacing themselves toward setting the record for most treys made and attempted.
If nothing else, though, believe in Dwight Howard. He's no longer 2011-12 Dwight Howard or the Dwight Howard who played for the Lakers or even the Dwight Howard who signed with Houston. He's 2008-09 Dwight Howard incarnate—the one who anchored, and is now anchoring, the league's best defense.
There's no caging the Rockets so long as he is healthy. They are legitimate title-chasers.
Verdict: Contender
Chicago Bulls
5 of 9
Derrick Rose's brutal love affair with injuries continues. That could, in theory, be enough to derail the Chicago Bulls' championship hopes—except it's not.
Though Joakim Noah and Rose keep battling bumps and bruises, the Bulls keep winning. They're tied for the Eastern Conference's best record and have an early hold on alpha-dog status after unseating the Raptors in Toronto.
Following years of tactical incongruity, the Bulls are no longer defensive giants who are offensively challenged; they rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While Rose's availability, however uncertain, definitely counts for something, Pau Gasol's presence lends an enormous helping hand. NBC Sports' Kurt Helin explains:
"He is playing the best basketball we have seen from him since the 'I’m an All-Star and the Lakers are contenders' years. We saw it again on Thursday night as he put up 27 points on 19 shots plus pulled down 11 boards against the Raptors in a game where the Bulls looked like the best team in the East.
Gasol was 9-of-13 inside 8 feet of the rim — Tom Thibodeau is using him like a post player, not trying to force him to be a stretch four like Mike D’Antoni too often did. Gasol also defended — the Raptors were 3-of-12 shooting at the rim when he was protecting it.
He is a great fit for this team and after spending the summer with his friends on the Spanish national team you can see his passion for the game is rekindled.
"
Depth has buoyed the Bulls' stock more than Rose's return. Gasol has brought playmaking and scoring, while Nikola Mirotic, Doug McDermott, Mike Dunleavy and Jimmy Butler have brought sweet shooting (Chicago ranks fifth in three-point success rate).
At long last, the Bulls have an outstanding offense to complement their dominant defense. Most of the enfeebled Eastern Conference doesn't stand a chance against these two-way whales.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Clippers
6 of 9
Doc Rivers-guided teams are typically revered for their defensive stinginess. The 2014-15 Clippers, though, are not your typical Rivers-guided team.
Impregnable defense hasn't been a Clippers staple following last season's top-seven finish. They currently rank 22nd in efficiency, largely thanks to a dearth of stoppers.
DeAndre Jordan is their best—and only—rim protector. Depending on him to shoulder the iron-policing load hasn't gotten the Clippers anywhere—other than last place in rim protection. Instability at the small forward spot has also crimped their defensive style, as ESPNLosAngeles.com's Arash Markazi unpacks further:
"For all the talk of the Clippers being a championship contending team, they are missing the one big threat most of the other contending teams have -- an elite wing defender.
"
In fact, the Clippers don't even have a starting small forward at the moment. Rivers started a collection of players at the position during the preseason and went withMatt Barnes through the first five games of the season before benching him in favor of Jamal Crawford, a shooting guard and far from a threat defensively.
Middling offensive sets haven't helped the Clippers' cause either. They rank an unimpressive 12th in efficiency and haven't been able to find their touch from beyond the arc. Blake Griffin and Jordan are also the only players shooting north of 45 percent while attempting at least five shots per game.
Mediocre offense and lackluster defense won't get the Clippers far out west. And though there's still time for them to remedy their greatest issues—shooting, rim protection, etc.—they look to be two or more players shy of genuine title contention.
Verdict: Pretender
Golden State Warriors
7 of 9
Make way for the Warriors.
Offensive progress has been minimal out of the gate, but Golden State remains a top-three defensive team that has carved out convincing victories against the Rockets, Clippers and Blazers. Steve Kerr's system, a triangle-motion hybrid, has also provided flashes of its peak potential, despite the relatively slow start.
Stephen Curry's hand has seldom doubled as an incendiary device from deep, and the team ranks 17th in offensive efficiency, but the ball movement is there. Stagnant sets killed the Warriors under Mark Jackson last season, when they averaged the fewest passes (245.8) per game. They're already deferring 75 times more (320.8), good enough for 11th in the league.
But passing has come at the expense of ball protection. The Warriors are committing a league-high 20.8 turnovers per game and coughing the rock up 19 percent of the time. If that mark holds, they'll own the worst turnover percentage in NBA history.
Even so, it's nearly impossible not to be high on this group. The Warriors offense looks primed for an extended transition period, but the Dubs have still won 75 percent of their games while playing through the third-toughest schedule without David Lee.
With a system in place—and an abundance of firepower to go with it—it's only a matter of time before everything comes together for a team that is already one of the Western Conference's most lethal.
Verdict: Contender
Dallas Mavericks
8 of 9
Dallas' offense is good. The best in the league, actually.
Ask the Philadelphia 76ers.
Below-average defense hasn't even killed the Mavericks' title hopes. After a disastrous start that saw them relinquish 100-plus points to rebuilding factions such as the Utah Jazz and Boston Celtics, they've settled down and now rank in the top half of points allowed per 100 possessions.
But their points-prevention strategy is still shaky at best, its success predicated on a 32-year-old Tyson Chandler turning the clock back at least two years. The Mavericks' bench play has been inconsistent as well. Head coach Rick Carlisle has done a nice job fiddling with his rotations, but no one outside the starting lineup is averaging double-figure point totals.
This offense is also incredibly dependent on Dirk Nowitzki. More than 28 percent of the Mavericks' plays run through him, which puts Nowitzki on pace to register the eighth-highest usage rate of anyone, aged 36 or older, in league history. Counting on him to hold up while shouldering that load is risky business.
“Our mission is to build this back up and get ourselves in a position so we can advance in the playoffs and become one of those small handful of teams that has a real chance,” Carlisle said ahead of 2014-15, per The Dallas Morning News' Eddie Sefko. “We’re in the early stages. We like our team and so far, the chemistry feels good. But it’s a long trek.”
A long trek that, barring some midseason trade, the Mavericks have neither the stamina nor depth to complete.
Verdict: Pretender
Cleveland Cavaliers
9 of 9
Frankie say relax. LeBron James, too.
Slow starts aren't atypical of newly formed superpowers. The 2010-11 Miami Heat began their inaugural season 9-8. The 2011-12 Chris Paul-piloted Los Angeles Clippers went 9-6 through their first 15 games. Superstars don't always come together and flirt with world domination, hence the 2014-15 Cleveland Cavaliers playing just above .500 basketball, despite employing three All-Stars.
Initial projections implied that their offense would be historic. It hasn't been. They rank a strong, though not unprecedented, fourth in offensive efficiency.
Disappointing still, the Cavaliers defense has been every bit as bad as advertised. They rank 29th in efficiency and allowed at least 100 points in five of their first six games. The last team to win a title with a bottom-10 defense was the 2000-01 Lakers, which doesn't bode well for a Cavaliers contingent that figures to struggle preventing baskets all year.
Then again, the Cavaliers play in the Eastern Conference. They're in their own conversation with the Chicago Bulls because of star power alone. Making it out of your conference is half the battle, and it's totally feasible that an obviously imperfect Cavaliers squad waltzes right into the NBA Finals. Once it's there, anything can happen.
And that's assuming Cleveland doesn't improve, which it will. Kevin Love is still a double-double and three-point machine, and Kyrie Irving is adjusting to his diversified role quite nicely. Those who have watched James at all over the last decade also know his current 46.7 percent shooting and cyclical passiveness won't hold.
“I’ve been playing a lot of basketball the last four years,” James said, per The Boston Globe's Shira Springer. “So, getting my body back into the flow of things and then stepping into a new system with new players...It takes time, even for me, to get the chemistry, how I want to attack, how I want to play to help the team. It’s a process for myself, as well.”
In due time, that process will come full circle, and the Cavaliers will be exactly who they're supposed to be: a championship-contending powerhouse.
Verdict: Contender
*Stats are accurate through Nov. 14, 2014, and come courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
