Time for Green Bay Packers to Prove They Belong Among the NFC Heavyweights

The conference title game participants from last January have been weakened by injury, the two teams now in possession of the NFC's top seeds were not in the postseason a year ago and Aaron Rodgers is a healthy MVP candidate.

Now is the time for the Green Bay Packers to prove they belong among the heavyweights in the NFC.

Sunday provides a showcase opportunity, as the Philadelphia Eagles—last season's NFC East champion and a 7-2 football team in 2014—arrive in Green Bay for an important Week 11 matchup.

The currently constructed NFC looks as wide open as it has all season. Both the Seattle Seahawks (defensive tackle Brandon Mebane) and San Francisco 49ers (inside linebacker Patrick Willis) placed key defensive cogs on season-ending injured reserve this week. The Arizona Cardinals (who also just lost their starting quarterback) and Detroit Lions sit atop the standings, despite neither participating past Week 17 last season. Meanwhile, the best quarterback in either conference resides in Green Bay.

1.	Arizona Cardinals	8-1
2.	Detroit Lions	7-2
3.	Philadelphia Eagles	7-2
4.	New Orleans Saints	4-5
5.	Dallas Cowboys	7-3
6.	Seattle Seahawks	6-3
7.	Green Bay Packers	6-3
8	San Francisco 49ers	5-4

The door appears ajar for the Packers. But Green Bay could also use a win against an opponent like the Eagles.

"Every game is a measuring stick when it becomes this time of year," Rodgers told reporters, via the team's official website. "These are important games. You have to win these kind of games at home if you want to have postseason potential."

The Packers have won 26 games (25 in the regular season, one postseason) since 2012, which is tied for seventh in the NFL. Of those 26 wins, just three have come against teams qualifying for the postseason that season—a road win against the Houston Texans, a home win against the Minnesota Vikings and a home playoff win over the Vikings.

All three wins came in 2012. Rodgers threw six touchdown passes to beat the Texans in Houston. Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder tossed two game-changing picks in a Packers comeback at Lambeau Field, and now-Carolina Panthers receiver Joe Webb started at quarterback for Minnesota in the one postseason win. 

	Year	Score
vs. NYG*	2011	20-37, L
vs. SF	2012	22-30, L
at SEA	2012	12-14, L
at IND	2012	27-30, L
at HOU	2012	42-24, W
vs. MIN	2012	23-17, W
at MIN	2012	34-37, L
vs. MIN*	2012	24-10, W
at SF*	2012	31-45, L
at SF	2013	28-34, L
at CIN	2013	30-34, L
vs. PHI	2013	13-27, L
vs. SF*	2013	20-23, L

Counting the upset playoff loss to the New York Giants and both playoff losses to the San Francisco 49ers, the Packers are just 3-10 against playoff teams since January 2012. Green Bay is also 0-3 against teams currently in position for a postseason spot so far in 2014 (Seattle, Detroit and New Orleans). 

To be the best, you have to beat the best. The Packers' win over the Bears in Chicago last January was infinitely more important, but a victory Sunday against the Eagles—who are 17-9 under head coach Chip Kelly—would likely qualify as more impressive overall.

"A quality opponent coming in, it's going to allow us to see where we're at," receiver Jordy Nelson told reporters. "I think our tougher games we haven't played our greatest, so we need to do that. And again, win at home."

Last season, Green Bay dropped road games to San Francisco and Cincinnati early in the year and then lost by two touchdowns to Philadelphia at home while Rodgers was out with a broken collarbone. He returned to push the Packers into the playoffs, where the 49ers once again ended Green Bay's season.

In 2014, the Packers have already dropped road games in Seattle, Detroit and New Orleans. Green Bay was outscored 99-46 in the three losses, as prime-time showdowns against the Seahawks and Saints spiraled out of control in the second half. The Lions held the Packers to just seven points.

	Wins	Losses
Opponent W-L	20-35-1	17-10
Margin	+125	-53
Points Scored (Avg)	38.5	15.3
Points Allowed (Avg)	17.7	33.0

According to the playoff odds at Football Outsiders, Detroit (90.1 percent) and New Orleans (77.3) are both overwhelming favorites to make the postseason, while Seattle currently remains more likely (67.9) to qualify than San Francisco (25.7).

The 7-2 Eagles, who are coming off a 45-21 drubbing of the Carolina Panthers, have an 85.9 percent chance of making the postseason. Almost certainly, the Packers would need to beat one of the four to advance to the Super Bowl come January.

Playing at home Sunday gives the Packers a real chance to deliver the team's first affirmation win in some time.

Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field this season. The Packers have outscored visiting teams by a healthy 166-65 margin, good for an average victory of over 25 points. The New York Jets jumped out to a 21-3 lead in the home opener, but Green Bay has since enjoyed a 163-44 run—including blowouts over the Vikings (42-10), Carolina Panthers (38-17) and Bears (55-14).

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Rodgers has been a major reason why.

At home, Rodgers is completing almost 69 percent of his passes and averaging 9.9 yards per attempt. He's thrown 15 touchdowns against zero interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 140.1 at Lambeau Field in 2014.

In fact, Rodgers hasn't thrown a regular-season interception in Green Bay since early December 2012. His last 10 games at Lambeau Field—which include 26 touchdown passes and zero interceptions—are a sight to behold:

	Cmp/Att	Yards	TD/INT	Rating	GB Points
vs. DET (2012)	14/24	173	0/0	80.7	27
vs. TEN (2012)	27/38	342	3/0	125.1	55
vs. WAS (2013)	34/42	480	4/0	146.0	38
vs. DET (2013)	20/30	274	1/0	106.8	22
vs. CLE (2013)	25/36	260	3/0	117.8	31
vs. CHI (2013)*	1/2	27	0/0	95.8	20
vs. NYJ (2014)	25/42	436	3/0	109.8	31
vs. MIN (2014)	12/17	156	3/0	138.7	42
vs. CAR (2014)	19/22	255	3/0	154.5	38
vs. CHI (2014)	18/27	315	6/0	145.8	55
TOTALS	195/280	2,718	26/0	131.5	359

Since the start of the 2010 season, the Packers are 28-2 in home regular-season games in which Rodgers starts and finishes without injury. The Dolphins won in overtime in 2010, and the 49ers won the 2012 opener. That's it.

This season, the Packers are averaging almost 42 points at home.

Scoring in bunches will likely be necessary to beat an opponent ranked fourth in scoring at 31 points per game in 2014. While more explosive at home (four games with 34 or more points), the Eagles are still averaging just under 26 points per contest on the road this season.

However, the Packers defense has allowed an average of 16.3 points at home, with eight total takeaways. Only the Jets cracked 20 points.

The idea of a "statement win" is more of a superficial storyline, but Sunday's contest also carries postseason ramifications.

The Packers and Eagles are both members of a top-heavy conference, one in which six teams have at least six wins, the 4-5 Saints lead the dreadful NFC South and the 49ers continue to hang around at 5-4. Green Bay is fighting tooth and nail with the 7-2 Lions in the NFC North, while the Eagles lead the NFC East by just a half-game over the 7-3 Dallas Cowboys.

The potential exists for the Packers and Eagles to be fighting over the same wild-card spot come the final quarter of the season. And even if both win their divisions, the winner Sunday will have a tiebreaker in any seeding scenario. The Packers (2-3 on the road in 2014) want as many home playoff games as possible.

No team can win or lose the Super Bowl in November, and regular-season wins count for nothing once the playoff positions are locked and the postseason dance begins. Still, the Packers could use the gained confidence of beating a top team inside the conference, especially after early disasters on the road.

The door in the NFC has since opened for the Packers. The first step through it begins Sunday against a conference opponent likely to be playing in January.

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2