Predicting Where Jimmy Butler's Price Tag Will Settle at Season's End
After failing to come to an extension agreement, Chicago Bulls forward Jimmy Butler will enter free agency next summer. The question on every Bulls fan's mind: How much money will Butler command in the market?
The bright side to this scenario is that the 25-year-old guard is a restricted free agent—assuming the Bulls extend a qualifying offer—meaning Chicago will be able to match opposing teams' deals if Butler signs an offer sheet.
The Marquette product is off to a scorching-hot start this season, averaging 19.5 points on 50 percent shooting and nearly six rebounds per game. Maintaining that average will be difficult, but if he does, there's no doubt he will command maximum money.
However, as we've seen over the past couple of years, teams have to pay for both recent performance and potential. Chicago will likely have to do the same, even if Butler's scoring number is slightly lower by season's end.
Entering free agency is a risk if the market doesn't value a player as high, but it's a chance the swingman is willing to take, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski:
"It came down to me deciding that I want to bet on myself. It was about me believing that I put the work in this summer to become a better player with the hope that my improvement will give the Bulls a better chance to win a championship.
"
It's a bet Butler will likely win. He's shown constant improvement every season and is about to enter the prime stages of his career.
Figuring out Butler's value can be tough, though. Defense is his calling card, and while his offense has drastically improved this season, he has to remain consistent in order for his price to stay put or increase.
Let's start off by taking a look at the market for a player like Butler.
The Current Market
The last few months have pretty much set the price tag for wing players, with guys like Gordon Hayward, Klay Thompson and Eric Bledsoe receiving deals with max or near-max money.
Hayward averaged 16 points per game on 41 percent shooting last season, a subpar number. But the Utah Jazz paid for upside, and it's worked for them so far as Hayward has performed exceptionally well in 2014-15.
Thompson is one of the league's elite three-point shooters and is quickly rising through the ranks as one of the NBA's top 2-guards.
Bledsoe is one of the better comparisons to Butler.
They're both physical defenders with great athleticism and an improving jump shot. The Phoenix Suns guard is more explosive, but at 6'7" and 220 pounds, Butler has the physique to guard the league's premier players like LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
For Butler to command a max contract, though, he has to maintain his current level of play, primarily on the offensive end. His defense alone won't get him what he wants. Tony Allen—arguably the league's best perimeter defender—signed a four-year, $20 million deal last season, less than half of what Butler's asking price is now.
Butler's Value
Butler was primed for a breakout 2013-14 season, and while his scoring increased to 13 points per game—a five-point bump from the previous year—he did so with a sub-40 field-goal percentage and an atrocious 28 percent from downtown.
There were still some very bright spots, though.
Butler earned All-Defensive Second Team honors and posted career highs in every major statistical category. Still, his value dipped due to his offense, and it's likely the reason Chicago was adamant in sticking to its own valuation of its budding 2-guard as opposed to succumbing to the one set by his representatives.
Outstanding defense and rebounding set Butler's value, but it's his newfound scoring that will make his final price skyrocket. He worked on his post game this summer and is being a lot more aggressive, getting to the free-throw line nearly seven times per game.
His jump shot also looks a lot more fluid, and he's not settling for as many long attempts as before. Only 42 percent of his attempts this season come from 16 feet and out, as opposed to 54 percent last year.
Still, the Bulls weren't willing to pay the cost necessary to make a deal. Happy Walters, Butler's agent, gave Yahoo Sports his thoughts on the situation:
"All the [rookie extension] deals done so far have shown that teams are building around their stars of the future, and they’re compensating those players as such. I was under the impression Jimmy was also viewed as one of those future building blocks with the Bulls.
We tried like heck to get something done, but ultimately, the Bulls wanted a 'hometown' discount. While understandable, I doubt their GM or coaches give Mr. Reinsdorf a discount when negotiating their own deals.
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Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler had some details on the negotiations:
The idea of a hometown discount isn't new for Chicago.
The same happened when the Bulls offered Luol Deng a three-year, $30 million offer, refusing to pay the $12-13 million valuation many believed Deng was worth, per Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports.
Deng was then shipped to the Cleveland Cavaliers and signed with the Miami Heat, accepting a two-year, $20 million contract.
By trading away its captain and best two-way player, it seemed Chicago was setting the stage for Butler to take on the latter role. But with a failed attempt at an extension, the Bulls are in danger of losing one of their core pieces, with seemingly no plan to replace him if they do.
Both sides want to get a deal done, and Butler wants to remain in Chicago, calling the Windy City his "home," per the Chicago Tribune. So, what will the Bulls end up paying Jimmy Buckets?
Projected Contract: Max Deal
Chicago dropped the ball by not getting a deal done prior to the Oct. 31 deadline, and unless Butler gets hurt or his performance radically drops off, the Bulls will find out the $12 million was the hometown discount.
The projected cap for the 2015-16 season is currently set at $66.5 million, per Larry Coon. Based on that figure, a max contract for Butler would give him a first-year salary of $15 to $16 million, 25 percent of the Bulls' cap*. Each year, starting with the second, gets a 7.5 percent raise based on the starting salary.
Since Chicago owns Butler's Bird rights, it can offer him a five-year deal and exceed the cap, whereas other clubs can offer just four years and are limited to using cap room. A max contract for Butler would look something like this:
| Year | Salary |
| 2015-16 | $15,561,000 |
| 2016-17 | $16,728,075 |
| 2017-18 | $17,895,150 |
| 2018-19 | $19,062,225 |
| 2019-20 | $20,229,300 |
| Total | $89,475,750 |
*Calculations for max salaries make it closer to 23 percent. Klay Thompson's new deal was used to determine the percentage.
The Bulls have struggled to find a consistent shooting guard during the Derrick Rose era, and Butler is easily the best one they've found. He fits Tom Thibodeau's system perfectly and has shown significant improvement every year.
It will be pricey for the Bulls, but with championship aspirations for the next few years, Chicago may have to break the bank to keep its current roster.
Note: All salaries gathered from Spotrac.com. Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
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