Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cleveland Browns struggled for years to get a winning NFL quarterback, but it seems they may have found one with Brian Hoyer. After a win last week over rival Cincinnati, the Browns are now 9-3 straight up and 8-2-2 against the spread in games Hoyer has started for them. Cleveland and Hoyer hope to keep those runs going when they host the Houston Texans Sunday afternoon.

Point Spread: Browns opened as three-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL Pick, via Odds Shark Computer: 23.3-21.2 Browns

Why the Texans Can Cover the Spread

The Texans are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS over their last five games, but three of those four losses came by one score or less. Last time out, Houston lost to Philadelphia 31-21 but only trailed by a field goal before the Eagles iced their victory with a touchdown with four minutes to go.

A few weeks ago, the Texans led Pittsburgh late into the second quarter but gave up three touchdowns in less than two minutes on their way to a 30-23 defeat. Just before that, Houston fell way behind Indianapolis but rallied to within 33-28 before running out of gas; and just before that, the Texans lost in overtime at Dallas. With a good bounce here and there, Houston could be 5-4 instead of 4-5.

Why the Browns Can Cover the Spread

The Browns have won three games in a row and five of their last six, following their 24-3 victory at Cincinnati last Thursday. Cleveland outgained the Bengals 368-165, outrushed them 170-86, won time of possession by a 36-24 margin and forced four turnovers. That's how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

The AFC North-leading Browns now get a chance to make it four wins in a row, with a home game against a sub-.500 team. Cleveland ranks 13th in the league in total offense and 12th in rushing, and while the defense struggled a bit earlier this season, it's allowed a total of just 33 points over the last three games.

Smart Pick

Cleveland seems like a chic pick these days, as the Browns bandwagon begins taking on new members, but this team has still been outrushed by 17 yards per game this season. Meanwhile, Houston seems to pull defeat from the jaws of victory more often than the reverse but has outrushed opponents by 20 yards per game.

And so far this NFL season, teams that have won the ground battle are 99-45 ATS. So the smart money here lies with the Texans, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• Houston is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games.
• The total has gone under in five of Cleveland's last five games when playing Houston.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.