Indianapolis Colts Face Test of Year in New England Patriots, Rob Gronkowski

By the second half of the season every year, there's one game that fans can circle for each NFL team that will be their biggest test. 

For the Indianapolis Colts, that test is less than a week away, going against the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

It's easy to point to everything that's gone well for the Colts, who have a two-game lead in the AFC South at 6-3 as well as one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. Thanks to offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton letting Andrew Luck loose, the Colts rank first in the league with 337.4 passing yards and 32.2 points per game.

But as the season continues, the wins for the Colts are starting to look less impressive than they did earlier in the season. Their wins have come against teams with a combined record of just 21-34-1, while two of their three losses came against legitimate playoff contenders in the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles.

	No. Teams	Combined Record	Win %
Wins	6	21-34-1	.384
Losses	3	20-8	.714

Coming off a bye week, the Colts need a statement win at home against the Patriots to prove that they can be legitimate Super Bowl contenders once the playoffs begin. If they come out flat on Sunday night, then that wouldn't bode well for later tests against teams like the Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys.

This is the game where the Colts can prove that they're for real, but if they're going to have a chance in prime time, there's one player on New England's offense that they'll need to contain.

Stopping Rob Gronkowski

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After a somewhat slow start offensively this season, Tom Brady and the Patriots have started to find their groove once again, averaging 40.2 points per game during their current five-game win streak.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski has been a big reason for that success, as it looks like he has finally returned to form after tearing his ACL last season. During the win streak, Gronk has been targeted at least nine times a week, catching 36 passes for 516 yards and five touchdowns.

With his numbers through nine games, the 25-year-old tight end is on pace to have his best season since 2011, the last time he played in all 16 games. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Gronkowski has easily been the league's top tight end, posting a 16.6 overall grade compared to Greg Olsen in second at just 10.7.

So far, teams have found it almost impossible to cover Gronkowski, and it will likely be even harder for the Colts, who have seriously struggled defending tight ends all season. Football Outsiders has the Colts as the 29th-ranked defense covering tight ends in terms of defense-adjusted value over average, or DVOA.

Having either D'Qwell Jackson or Jerrell Freeman covering Gronkowski will likely mean that Brady continues to go his way. The two tried to cover Denver's Julius Thomas in Week 1, but he was able to go off for 104 yards and three touchdowns on seven receptions.

Defensive coordinator Greg Manusky is going to have his hands full trying to figure out how to deal with Gronkowski, but he may not have the answer to containing one of the best tight ends in the league.

The Best Defense is a Good Offense

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In all likelihood, the Colts probably won't have an answer to stopping Gronkowski, who simply presents a huge mismatch in the middle of the field at 6'6'' and 265 pounds. Instead, it may be up to the offense to keep up with New England's dangerous passing attack.

That may sound easy considering how productive Luck has been this season, but he has not played well when going up against the Patriots. In two previous meetings against New England, including last year's loss in the AFC divisional round, the Colts have gone 0-2 and Luck has thrown seven interceptions.

Date	Comp.	Att.	Yds	TD	INT	RAT
1/11/2014 (L 43-22)	20	41	331	2	4	53.0
11/18/2012 (L 59-24)	27	50	334	2	3	63.2

Luck talked about New England's defense on Tuesday, via Mike Wells of ESPN.com:

"

You've got to expect something unexpected. They do a great job with their scheme and they have great players. I think that's why they've been so successful for so long and consistently. Again, we're excited about it. Like we say every week, we go in confident and we're going to put the work in this week, enjoy practice and get to Sunday.

"

The offense has answered the call so far this season, putting up at least 20 points in every game, but Patriots coach Bill Belichick always has something up his sleeve when going against Indianapolis. He may decide to try to bring pressure with some disguised blitzes while eliminating Luck's emergency option by putting Darrelle Revis on T.Y. Hilton.

An effective ground game could end up taking a lot of pressure off of Luck. Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson have been a solid one-two punch this season, helping the Colts average 113.8 yards per game on the ground, and they'll be going against a Patriots defense thanks ranks 26th in DVOA against the run.

Conclusion

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This won't be the last tough matchup for the Colts before the season is over, but it may very well be the biggest.

With Luck under center, the Colts will always be a potential title contender, but like Peyton Manning during his time in Indianapolis, the third-year quarterback has struggled early in his career against New England. Before they can reach the Super Bowl, the Colts are almost guaranteed to have to play either the Broncos or Patriots to get through the AFC.

There will be a lot to watch for on Sunday, but regardless of how the Colts play, it should give us a better picture as to whether or not this team has enough pieces to win three or four postseason games to give Indianapolis its second Lombardi Trophy.

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