Realistic Statistical Expectations for LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers
First they were anointed the NBA's next big thing. Then they lost three of their first five games.
What should we really expect from the Cleveland Cavaliers after LeBron James and Kevin Love brought their talents to the rescue of a fledgling rebuilding project? With Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters adopting different roles and new head coach David Blatt debuting his system, there's a very real learning curve attached to this otherwise ambitious experiment.
Even James knew this wouldn't be an overnight sensation.
"We're not ready right now. No way," he wrote with Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins in July's return announcement. "Of course, I want to win next year, but I'm realistic. It will be a long process, much longer than it was in 2010. My patience will get tested. I know that."
Those words—admittedly penned prior to Love's arrival—have proven prescient so far.
But no one expects this team to win just 40 percent of its games. No one expects James to continue averaging just 23.4 points per game.
What do they expect?
That's the task at hand. Here's a look at what kind of statistics we should expect from the Cavaliers this season—both collectively and individually. Only time will tell, but it's never too soon for a few educated guesses.
Defensive Efficiency
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Anderson Varejao hasn't received much attention in the wake of Cleveland's superstar coup, but he's still the guy primarily responsible for defending the paint and protecting the rim. That makes him an important asset on a team whose defense remains the single-biggest question going forward.
The Cavs offense will come along in time. There's too much talent to believe otherwise.
But getting stops won't be quite as easy.
Cleveland ranked 17th in defensive efficiency a season ago, giving up 104.8 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Stats. That's on par with the 104.1 points per 100 possessions the Minnesota Timberwolves yielded with Kevin Love on the floor last season, per NBA.com (subscription required).
The hope is that James turns those kind of trends around.
We'll see. His Miami Heat only ranked 11th in defensive efficiency last season, coughing up 102.9 points per 100 possessions, despite strong perimeter defenders such as Dwyane Wade and Shane Battier.
There's no doubting LBJ's unique ability on the defensive end, but he can't create stops single-handedly.
He'll need help from a young perimeter including Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. He'll need Varejao and Love to lock down the interior.
Five games into the season, results have been mixed. USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt recently noted that, "Cleveland's big men are struggling with defensive assignments."
And that's the kind of thing that's bound to happen through to first weeks and perhaps months of a new rotation. The bigger concern is whether this team will have the focus and discipline to defend when it's at its best.
James will attempt to set a tone. If the younger Cavs follow suit, it's certainly possible for Cleveland to be as good as the 11th-ranked Heat were in 2013-14.
Odds are they don't quite get there.
Prediction: 103 opponent points per 100 possessions (ranking No. 15-20 in NBA)
Offensive Effiency
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This is where we'll see the most immediate and dramatic improvement in Cleveland's overall performance.
James is an elite scorer and playmaker, while Love is the best stretch 4 in the business. They'll transform this club's offense in time, particularly under the watch of head coach David Blatt and his Princeton-inspired approach.
The Cavs of old relied on heavy doses of Irving and Waiters, both guards who like to work with the ball in their hands, often looking for their own shot in the process. That will change.
Even if it takes a little while.
"There's a lot of bad habits, a lot of bad habits been built up the past couple years," James told reporters after a recent loss to the Portland Trail Blazers. "When you play that style of basketball, it takes a lot to get it up out of you."
In a subsequent loss to the Utah Jazz, Cleveland tied a franchise record-low with just six assists.
"You just can't explain [the low assist totals]." James told media afterward. "There's no way you're going to win a basketball game like that, just having six assists. ... We just can't win like that, and we got to figure out a way to help each other and not make it so tough."
These things don't happen overnight. Clearly.
But we should remain optimistic about the possibilities.
James' Heat ranked second league-wide a season ago with 109 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Stats.
Granted, that team benefited from four years' worth of chemistry. The Cavaliers may not really reach their stride for another season or two.
But they'll be good in the meantime, especially with Love and Irving still discovering the primes of their careers.
Prediction: 107.5 points per 100 possessions (ranking Nos. 5-10 in NBA)
Pace
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Just five games into the 2014-15 season, Cleveland ranks 28th in pace with only 93.3 possessions per game, according to Hollinger Stats.
That's exactly how many per-game possessions the Heat averaged last season, ranking 27th at the time.
On the one hand, one expects LeBron's teams to value their possessions. He's a patient and deliberate playmaker, one who works within the flow of offensive movement.
On the other hand, you'd like to see this team push the tempo and thrive in transition. It has a rare combination of scorers and athletes who reason to be at their best before opposing defenses are completely set up.
A quick glance at Blatt's recent track record overseas suggests that his teams don't play at an especially rapid pace. Perhaps that trend will continue in Cleveland, particularly as all the new pieces grow more accustomed to executing offense within a new system.
That said, Irving and Waiters' shoot-first instincts will likely keep the Cavaliers' pace a bit closer to the 95.7 possessions per game they averaged last season.
Prediction: 95 possessions per game (ranking Nos. 15-20 in NBA)
3-Point Shooting
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Love made 37.6 percent of his three-point attempts last season, while James made 37.9 percent of his.
The former will be the more prolific long-range shooter, but both additions bring a level of reliability to an offense that made only 35.6 percent of its threes in 2013-14, the league's 18th-best mark. Irving and Waiters are solid long-range shooters in their own right, but they needed some help.
As a team, the Cavaliers are only making 33 percent of their three-point attempts so far this season, a figure that's bound to rise—perhaps significantly.
Once this team gets its spacing and execution down, the looks from downtown will improve.
Prediction: 37 percent (ranking Nos. 5-10 in NBA)
LeBron James' Line
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James' numbers have been remarkably consistent over the last four seasons, so it's hard to imagine any extreme deviations with the Cavaliers. The ball will frequently be in his hands, and good things tend to follow when that happens.
The four-time MVP will produce across the board, and he'll do so efficiently. Don't let the slow start to the season fool you.
It's certainly possible that James' scoring will take the slightest of dips with so many weapons around him. Love, Irving and Waiters are all accustomed to getting plenty of touches, and it remains to be seen how each will adjust to the newfound talent at his side.
In turn, though, James' assist numbers could trend slightly upward as a result.
Prediction: 25 PTS, 6 REB, 7.5 AST, .540 FG%
Kevin Love's Line
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Love is no stranger to maintaining his elite rebounding numbers alongside other capable rebounders. He did it next to Nikola Pekovic in Minnesota, and he'll do it next to Varejao in Cleveland.
He's averaging 11.2 rebounds through his first five contests, and that's just a start.
To his credit, Love has turned himself into one of the league's most well-rounded big men. He's an exceptional three-point shooter and a much-improved passer, coming off a career-high 4.4 assists per game in 2013-14.
There won't be quite the same need for his playmaking ability in Cleveland, but Love will remain a stat-stuffing machine on both ends of the floor.
The biggest question is how close he'll get to the 18.5 field-goal attempts he averaged a season ago. Something will likely have to give now that Love is surrounded by so many scorers.
"It's tough to say. There will be things. I don't know one stat in particular that will have to take a hit," Love said in October, reports The Washington Post's Michael Lee. "I've been fortunate and unfortunate. Very, very, very bittersweet to say the least that I've had to watch playoff basketball for the last six years.
"I've watched [Chris] Bosh. I've watched guys like [Dwyane] Wade and different players throughout that teams have to sacrifice. I'd be lying to myself and everybody here if I was telling you I didn't have to sacrifice. I'm willing to do whatever it takes for this team to win because at the end of the day, that's what we want, is to win."
That likely rules out a return to the 26.1 points per game Love averaged in 2013-14.
But as Cleveland's most dangerous long-range threat, his number should get called more than enough.
Prediction: 23.5 PTS, 12.5 REB, 2.5 AST, .440 FG%
Kyrie Irving's Line
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This is a new world for Irving.
The ball won't be in his hands like it used to be, and he won't be the one initiating the lion's share of offense. That's the difference James makes.
You may not see that difference play out in Irving's scoring. That's his bread and butter, and the Cavaliers didn't just hand him a maximum extension to watch James go to work. Irving could conceivably score even more points than he did a season ago, when he averaged 20.8 per game.
The bigger evolution will likely be in Irving's distribution. That's where James shines, and Irving won't have as many assist opportunities now that he's doing more of his half-court work off the ball.
Prediction: 19.5 PTS, 2.5 REB, 4.5 AST, 46 FG%
Dion Waiters' Line
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After coming off Blatt's bench for the last two games, Dion Waiters poses an intriguing case study for the Cavaliers this season.
What role does he play? How can Cleveland get the most out of him without getting in the way of the bigger names on this team? Will the 22-year-old ultimately accept his more complementary responsibilities after cementing himself as this club's second scoring option in the old days?
"I got to do whatever I got to do for the better of the team," Waiters said this week, per Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. "If it's starting, if it's coming off the bench, if it's the water boy, I got to do it. Whatever is best for the team."
Spoken like a man who doesn't want to disappoint the best player on the planet.
James said:
"For the best of the team, that should be Dion's role. Dion comes off the bench and brings us that scoring mentality but more than that, he brings us another defender off the bench, which we need. Someone that's tough, someone that can guard one through three. It's a new role, but it's a good role for him.
"
And it's a role that may free Waiters to be even more aggressive. He tallied a season-high 17 points in his second stint off the bench.
Prediction: 13.5 PTS, 2 REB, 2.5 AST, 42 FG%
Final Record
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It won't be the perfect season.
But it also should not disappoint. Once the Cavaliers have had a couple of months to mesh, much of the hype will be vindicated. By March and April, this team could well have firmly established itself among the league's very best.
"Our team, it's a work in progress, and when you have a lot of new players—particularly a lot of new, very talented players—sometimes it's a little harder to put together," Blatt told reporters this week. "If you look historically, that's sort of been the case in many of these situations."
Managing expectations is part of the business, especially for the coach charged with keeping all these personalities focused on the bottom line.
Ups and downs aside, though, any club featuring James and a star-caliber supporting cast is going to win a lot of games. James won 58 of them in his first season with the Heat.
Similar results may await in Cleveland.
Prediction: 55 wins
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