Who Has Edge in 2014-15 Installment of Clippers-Warriors Rivalry?
The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers square off Nov. 5 in the continuation of what has quietly become one of the NBA's greatest ongoing rivalries.
Thanks to a playoff series win last season, the Clips hold an undeniable advantage in the intrastate competition.
But that's about to change.
A Brief History
Neither the Warriors nor the Clippers have been very good for very long. This incarnation of the Dubs has been relevant for precisely two seasons, and the Clippers—as they presently exist—only started to matter in 2011-12.
This is not a multigenerational Hatfield-McCoy situation. Nobody's Pa poisoned the well of anybody else's Pa back in Aught Four. Still, the intensity is real, augmented by an entertaining back-and-forth in which both sides have struck blows.
We've seen highlights aplenty on both sides, as well as every NBA lip-reader's favorite video snippet:
The Warriors have gone 5-3 against L.A. over the past two regular seasons, but their margin of victory in those matchups is a combined three points. The Clips knocked a depleted Dubs squad out of the playoffs in a hard-fought seven-game series last season despite dealing with the Donald Sterling fiasco.
That series taught us a few things about both teams—things we should keep in mind as the rivalry renews itself this year.
First of all, we learned the Clippers' first, second, third and fourth priorities will always be taking Stephen Curry out of the game. Doc Rivers' club took the midcourt trap to new extremes, sending defenders at Curry early and often in hopes of forcing him to relinquish the rock. Curry managed to put up 23 points and 8.4 assists in the series, but he worked for every scrap.
We also learned that the Clippers' defensive rebounding issues (they ranked 26th in the NBA last season) made them surprisingly vulnerable to small-ball lineups. Golden State had no choice but to get diminutive with its frontcourt last spring because Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli both missed the postseason, and it was interesting to see that tactic nearly pay off against L.A.'s ultra-bulky front line of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.
In addition, that first-round meeting in 2014 proved that neither team's bench could be relied on for major production. It also affirmed that Chris Paul is still the orneriest competitor in the league, and that L.A. could reliably gum up the Warriors' offense by taking Curry away and daring others to pick up the slack.
Oh, and we also learned that the Clippers were the better, more complete team.
New Wrinkles
Things are different now, though. The Warriors have a healthy Bogut anchoring their offense and defense, and his presence on the floor will be a major boost for Golden State. Always a vital centerpiece on D, the big Aussie now functions as a fulcrum for the Dubs' scoring attack—an attack that looks nothing like it did a year ago.
The Warriors have exchanged predictability for dynamism, swapped out isolations for the three-man weave. As a result, they won't be nearly so easy to knock off-kilter. When Curry isn't bringing the ball up and trying to initiate his 19th pick-and-roll in a row, it's a whole lot harder to blitz him.
We are only seeing the early stages of new head coach Steve Kerr's system overhaul, but all signs point to major offensive progress.
The Dubs are playing smarter, varying their tactics and involving everyone. They have become moving targets, far harder to hit than they were at any point in the last two seasons. Through their first three games the Warriors rank fourth in assists per game, ninth in passes per game (after ranking dead last in 2013-14) and first in secondary assists with an average of 8.7 per game, according to NBA.com.
These are not last year's Warriors. Well, except in one respect: They currently rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency, continuing the trend of improved stopping power that began with a No. 3 ranking last season.
Now, you might be thinking, "Offensive dominance? That's the Clippers' calling card." And you'd be right; they ranked first in points per 100 possessions last year. But Alvin Gentry, the man who masterminded that attack, is now drawing up plays on Kerr's bench. Mike Woodson, lover of iso-ball and stagnant offense, is Rivers' right-hand man in Los Angeles.
Tactics aside, the Warriors also have an edge in depth. Getting Bogut and Ezeli back is huge, but so are the additions of Shaun Livingston, Brandon Rush and Leandro Barbosa to the rotation. Barbosa in particular has meshed well with Andre Iguodala on the second unit. The Brazilian blur routinely gets the rock on the move and has put up 8.7 points on 52.4 percent shooting in just 16.0 minutes per game this season.
The Clips added Spencer Hawes, a skilled offensive player who lacks mobility on defense. Golden State is going to attack him relentlessly whenever he sees the floor.
And of course, Klay Thompson is a changed player. The NBA's current scoring leader has been unguardable in the early going, torching defenders from distance and featuring a potent off-the-dribble game that has come out of nowhere. In the past, the Clippers could have been confident in J.J. Redick or Matt Barnes handling Thompson on the perimeter.
Not anymore, B/R's Fred Katz notes: "Matt Barnes, who looks a year older and step slower, isn't acting as the effective perimeter stopper his reputation boasts. He's part of the reason why OKC is now 'Perry Jones' team,' after Jones dropped 32 on the Clips in an almost-victory Oct. 30."
In many ways, the Clippers are who they are. That's not a knock; there are far worse things to be than title contenders led by two established superstars and a widely revered head coach. And if you look past the decline of the team's perimeter players and the failure to add meaningful depth, you can actually see a path to improvement.
After all, Griffin's new jumper makes him even more dangerous than he was when his scoring happened only within a few feet of the bucket. He and Paul are 1 and 1A now, and any team with two of the league's top 10 players is a scary one.
For all the impressive changes in Golden State's offense, L.A. has outperformed it in many key areas this year. The Clippers, despite a start that has Paul discouraged, are still creating more points via assist (55.8 per game) than the revamped Warriors (54.8), according to NBA.com.
Golden State hopes to join the club of offensive elites this year; the Clips are founding members.
This is a close call.
Who's on Top?
Technically, the edge right now has to belong to the Clippers. They took that playoff series last year, which means the rivalry belt is theirs. But don't ask Andre Iguodala about that.
But given all the changes we've seen over the summer and during this young season, it seems likely the Warriors will emerge from the upcoming matchup with the advantage. Golden State is a different team—improved, sharpened in all the right areas.
Los Angeles can't approach this new version of the Warriors like it approached the old one.
It's not just the return of Bogut, and it's not just the fact that the Dubs are the deeper team now. It's the way Golden State is using its talent—both pre-existing and newly added—more intelligently.
The Clippers have a new owner, a fresh start and the unquestioned dominance of their top-end stars. In some ways they've grown, and that's good.
But the Warriors have done them one better: They've evolved.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com.
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