Ranking the 15 Best Free Agents of the 2015 Class
Forget about regular-season NBA action for a second. Think about the 2015 free-agency class instead.
Yes, I know: The season just started. You're only just coming to terms with all that's happened since the end of last year. LeBron James is back in Cleveland. Kobe Bryant is teammates with Carlos Boozer. Chris Douglas-Roberts' shorts aren't as short as you thought they would be.
It's madness.
But that doesn't make this any less necessary.
Halloween has come and gone, and so too has the deadline for fourth-year players to sign contract extensions. Some studs successfully brokered one; Ricky Rubio now has 56 million reasons to continue working that boyish smile of his, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein. Other extension-eligible talents weren't so lucky, and the free-agency landscape has changed as a result, even if only slightly.
Restricted free agents rarely find new digs. Incumbent teams have the ability to match any offer the players receive, making it hard to leave. Sometimes, though, it happens, and there are now more than a few cases to monitor.
Which of these restricted free agents stand among next summer's best available mercenaries? Who else makes the cut?
Age, position and past statistical prowess are our guide. Immediate performance outlook counts, too. Then there's the subjective aspect of all this, which, basically, consists of asking yourself: How good is Player X compared to the rest of his free-agent class?
Put that way, Kostas Papanikolaou obviously lords over all. Everything else about this exercise isn't as certain. Join me, then, in finding clarity.
Honorable Mentions
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Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Tim Duncan's contract expires following the 2014-15 season, at which point he'll be 39 years old. If he wants to continue playing, it's pretty much guaranteed that the Spurs bring him back as their starting power forward, or their starting center, or their resident tweed, plaid and Costco jeans expert.
Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
Like Duncan, Manu Ginobili's deal is up at the end of this season. He turns 38 in July, and you have to believe his fate is tied, even if only loosely, to Duncan's. Prediction: They return to the Spurs together, or they retreat to their private, yet luxurious bungalows somewhere off the coast of the Galapagos Islands—also together.
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Dwyane Wade holds a player option for 2015-16 worth over $16.1 million. Even if the then-33-year-old exercises his right to become a free agent, he isn't going anywhere. Pat Riley would let Mario Chalmers make all his life decisions before letting Wade walk.
The Honorable Mention of All Honorable Mentions: LeBron James
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James' return to the Cleveland Cavaliers was almost tainted by him signing an option-overloaded, two-year deal. But then he put the kibosh on any preemptive "He's leaving for the Utah Jazz in 2015!" talk.
"It was a business decision," James told CNN's Rachel Nichols of his contract, per Northeast Ohio Media Group's Joe Vardon. "They (Cavaliers fans) just got to get excited about this year, which is, I don't even need to say that."
By "business decision," James of course means he's planning to go dollar-signs searching in 2016, when the revenue from the NBA's new national television deal with ESPN and Turner Sports will presumably be funneled into the salary cap.
"The league right now projects a jump to $66.5 million for 2015-16, a modest rise pegged to the final year of that modest $930 million TV deal," Grantland's Zach Lowe writes. "If the new TV deal kicks in for the 2016-17 season just shy of $2 billion, the cap could exceed that same $14 million leap, all the way to around $80-plus million, in a single year."
Worry not, Cavaliers fans. James (probably) isn't going anywhere. He just wants a bigger slice of annual-salary pie.
15. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
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Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $2 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $44 million
Call this an ambitious ranking, which is fitting, because Jimmy Butler is being ambitious in pursuit of his next contract.
Butler's camp rejected the Chicago Bulls' final extension offer, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. His agent, Happy Walters, said the team was searching for a "hometown discount," so the 25-year-old will enter restricted free agency in July.
Once he gets there, the market figures to be weird. Butler is an elite defender—he held opposing shooting guards to a player efficiency rating of 11 last year, well below the league average of 15, per 82games.com—but he's been an unreliable scorer, and his career three-point splits are fantastically confusing.
Honing that three-point stroke upon returning from his thumb injury will be pivotal in driving up his price tag. He's seen Klay Thompson net four years and $70 million from the Golden State Warriors, per Marc Stein, so he knows the stakes. At the same time, he's seen fellow wing Avery Bradley get four years and $32 million from the Boston Celtics. Specialist money. Butler falls somewhere in between at the moment.
This year is all about proving that he can change for the better.
14. Luol Deng, Miami Heat
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted (player option)
2014-15 Salary: $9.7 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $46 million
Luol Deng is another player-option holder. No matter how well he plays this year, there's always a chance he doesn't opt out of his contract and instead waits until summer 2016, when player salaries are expected to detonate.
That he barely crept out of the honorable mentions section is a sign of how far his stock has fallen. While Derrick Rose battled injuries, Deng struggled to assume the role of a featured scorer. He's more of an offensive complement who dominates defensively. That makes him a specialist. Cruel though that sounds, it's true.
More complicated still, Deng has been a warrior, playing through injuries when he can. Between 2009 and the end of last season, only five players logged more minutes than him. He'll be entering his 12th year in 2015-16 with plenty of wear and tear on his treads. Teams should be reluctant to invest in the 29-year-old's health long term. That he's failed to develop into a reliable three-point shooter further harms his stock.
Playing for the Heat could be a boon for his offseason value. But in the meantime, he's toting the burden of proof as he tries to show his star hasn't begun to dim.
13. Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $7.3 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $40 million
Despite what Wesley Matthews thinks, he isn't the league's best two-way shooting guard. He is a two-way talent, to be sure. He provides instant offense and lights-out shooting, and while the Portland Trail Blazers didn't fare well on the defensive end last season, he held opposing 2-guards to a 12.9 PER, according to 82games.com.
Securing $10 million annually on average is certainly possible given what he does. He's especially valuable to the Blazers, who are short on two-way talent not named Nicolas Batum.
Three-point shooting is also a hot commodity these days. Ask Jodie Meeks. Matthews, 28, is shooting 39.4 percent from deep for his career and has never converted less than 38.2 percent of his long balls for an entire season. Over the last five years, only two other players have launched at least two threes per game and shot 38 percent or better on those looks: Kyle Korver and Stephen Curry.
Yes, he keeps that brand of company. Expect his next contract, and the league-wide interest leading up to it, to reflect such a feat.
12. Reggie Jackson, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $2.2 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $48 million
Enjoy Reggie Jackson while you can, Oklahoma City Thunder fans. He may not be around much longer after failing to sign a contract extension by the Oct. 31 deadline.
Sensing this was the road Oklahoma City and Jackson would travel, Daily Thunder's Steve Pierce explained why the two parties may go separate ways next summer:
"So Jackson will undoubtedly opt to test the waters next summer and will almost certainly receive a max offer from some owner flushed with a bunch of new TV cash and looking for a starting point guard. This offer could realistically come under a newly expanded cap, which would make Jackson’s contract worth much more than players who signed max deals this year.
"
A max deal for a still-unproven point guard sounds steep. Heck, the above-$48 million prediction seems high. But this is all based off Jackson, 24, being more valuable outside Oklahoma City.
When the Thunder are healthy, he's the fourth option behind Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Small markets aren't ones to foot eight-figure salaries for No. 4 options.
Jackson won't fall as low on other teams' totem poles, hence why he cracks this list. He averaged 13.1 points, 4.1 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 28.5 minutes per game last year, emerging as an explosive floor general who could also coexist alongside Westbrook.
Imagine what he could accomplish in a bigger role on a different team with more playing time. This is a James Harden-type situation in so many ways. You have to see Jackson's value beyond his current standing, because it's high.
Really, really (really) high.
11. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $9.5 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $48 million
Paul Millsap won't be making NBA chump change much longer.
The Atlanta Hawks signed themselves a steal in 2013 when the now-29-year-old put pen to paper on a two-year, $19 million deal. There will (likely) be no discounts given this time around.
During his first season in Atlanta, Millsap put up 17.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Not one other player rivaled those baseline totals. Assuming Millsap doesn't fall off the face of the Earth at some point this season, he's speeding toward a significant raise—one the Hawks might not be able to finance.
Signing Millsap to that two-year deal means the Hawks only own his early Bird rights, as Basketball Insiders' Cody Taylor pointed out ahead of 2014-15. That precludes them from stretching his contract longer than four years—just like every other team—which makes re-signing him more difficult.
As someone who has developed into a solid stretch 4—he hit 35.8 percent of his bombs last year, including 36.6 percent from the corners—and can exist within motion-heavy systems, he should incite bidding wars. Millsap need only decide whose money he's taking.
10. Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted (player option)
2014-15 Salary: $8.4 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $58 million
Monta Ellis has to be seeing dollar signs after watching Thompson snag $70 million from Golden State. Though he is almost five years Ellis' junior, the shooting guard has devolved into a relatively shallow position. As a high-scoring combo guard, Ellis should see his value soar in the coming months.
Especially if the 29-year-old picks up where he left off last season.
After turbulent stints with the Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks, Ellis has found a home with the Dallas Mavericks. He averaged 19.0 points, 5.7 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game in 2013-14. He also found nylon on 45.1 percent of his shots, his highest conversion rate since 2010-11.
Consider the list of the four other players who registered at least 19.0 points, 5.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals on 45 percent shooting last year: Chris Paul, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and James Harden.
In the event Ellis keeps similar company this year, those dollar signs he's seeing now won't be hard to find.
9. DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $11.4 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $56 million
DeAndre Jordan has come a long way, and that will inevitably cost the Clippers or another team.
Since signing his last contract three-plus years ago, Jordan has morphed into a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and double-double machine. Last season, he really came into his own under Doc Rivers, averaging career highs in points (10.4), rebounds (13.6), blocks (2.5) and minutes (35). At only 26, he's not someone who's going to slow down either. If anything, his rise through the center ranks is only just beginning.
Vinny Del Negro buried Jordan on the bench during three years coaching in Los Angeles. The 6'11" behemoth never averaged more than 27.2 minutes per game before last season, and he was frequently removed from games late in the fourth quarter because of his poor free-throw shooting (which is, admittedly, horrendous).
But that was many moons ago. Jordan is the league's iron man now. He hasn't missed a game since the 2010-11 season, and he's turned his superhuman athleticism into an imposing offensive weapon.
Next summer figures to be a busy, bank-account-bolstering affair for him. Some team, even if it's not the Clippers, is going to handsomely reward Jordan for his ongoing ascension.
8. Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted (player option)
2014-15 Salary: $13.5 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $52 million
Al Jefferson is a beast, and should he choose to explore free agency next summer, there will be a big market.
Last season he joined Anthony Davis as the only players to average 20 points, 10 rebounds and one block while shooting 50 percent or better from the floor. He and Dwight Howard, meanwhile, are the only players who averaged at least 19 points, 10 rebounds and one block over the last seven seasons.
Pushing 30, Jefferson isn't a child, nor is he the ideal rim protector. But he's one of the few remaining big men who can still serve as a No. 1 offensive option. Competition for his services is bound to be fierce. The Charlotte Hornets or another team will have to pony up the cash if they want him sporting their colors in 2015-16.
Marcin Gortat took home five years and $60 million from the Washington Wizards this past summer. Jefferson's average annual salary should be something similar, if not higher. This will likely be the last huge payday of his career, and it's going to show in his next contract when he's compensated like the star that he is.
7. Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $5.5 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $64 million
Greg Monroe's roller-coaster ride continues.
Instead of signing an offer sheet as a restricted free agent this past summer, Monroe inked his qualifying offer and will now reach unrestricted free agency in 2015. That doesn't bode well for his future with the Detroit Pistons.
"The Pistons and Monroe could still form a long-term partnership, presumably if things go better than expected this coming season," wrote The Detroit News' Vincent Goodwill. "But the odds are Monroe is likely playing his last season in Detroit, the franchise that drafted him in 2010."
Gauging the 24-year-old's worth will be difficult as the season wears on. There's a chance head coach Stan Van Gundy will bring him off the bench to stagger his and Josh Smith's minutes. That will inevitably affect Monroe's playing time and the numbers he's able to put up.
Until now, though, he's been uber-productive. He's averaged at least 15 points, nine rebounds, two assists and one steal per game in each of the last three seasons. No other player in the league can say the same. Monroe also received two max offers in restricted free agency, according to USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt, so he holds value around the league.
Van Gundy's rotation-tinkering could hurt his numbers, but that won't lower Monroe's ceiling. He'll stand among next year's elite free agents because of what he's done since 2011-12 alone.
6. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
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Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $2.9 million
Predicted Value: Five years, $90(ish) million
October came and went, and it left Kawhi Leonard without a contract extension, which means he'll hit restricted free agency this summer. He was apparently seeking a five-year max deal worth roughly $90 million, and the Spurts wanted no part of it.
Right now.
"San Antonio could sign Leonard to a five-year, $90 million-plus extension now or next summer, if the Spurs are willing to make him their designated player. The Spurs want to keep Leonard’s salary off the books until they have a chance to explore free-agent targets next summer, especially if Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili retire, league sources said.
"
Makes sense. If the Spurs had signed the 23-year-old, his new salary would count against next year's salary cap. Having him hit restricted free agency allows them to explore other options while retaining the ability to match any contract offer he receives, max or otherwise. It also increases the likelihood they avoid signing him for five years, since he can only sign a four-year offer sheet from another team, though the threat of San Antonio matching could curb interest.
Letting Leonard reach the semi-open market is not without its risks. Let's make that clear. He could sign a short deal—maybe his qualifying offer worth $4 million—that would permit him to become an unrestricted free agent sooner.
None of this makes him a true flight risk. It just makes him valuable. The 2014 NBA Finals MVP averaged 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.7 steals on 52.2 percent shooting in under just 30 minutes per game last season. Only two other players (minimum 25 appearances) have ever matched those statistical benchmarks while also logging fewer than 30 minutes a night.
Leonard is supposed to be San Antonio's cornerstone for the future once Duncan and Ginobili call it quits. That, at least for now, hasn't changed. The absence of an extension just ensures this summer's festivities will be a tad more interesting.
5. Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted (player option)
2014-15 Salary: $7.5 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $62 million
Yes, Goran Dragic is absolutely the fifth-best should-be free agent.
Six players tallied at least 20.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.0 steal per game in 2013-14: Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James and Dragic. Each of them, with the exception of Dragic and Irving, will take home $10 million-plus this season. And Irving only falls alongside Dragic because his extension doesn't kick in until 2015-16. When it does, he'll earn more than $14.7 million.
If Dragic is able to follow up last year's eruption with another All-Star-deserving campaign, he's a candidate for a max contract. Landing one will be difficult, if only because the league is flush with all-world point guards—especially in Phoenix.
But if Eric Bledsoe is worth five years and $70 million, Dragic, who will turn 29 in May, is certainly worth more annually. Four years and an average salary exceeding $15 million feels right. A max contract, however, is not out of the question.
After all, it appears the Los Angeles Lakers will be both interested (per Stein) and desperate next summer.
4. Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $12.9 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $79 million
Rajon Rondo thinks he's worth a max contract, and he's in line to get one—or close to one—from the Celtics (five-year max) or another team (four-year max).
Health is the buzzword here. Rondo, who turns 29 in February, appeared in just 68 games combined the last two seasons, so he'll need to remain healthy and productive if he's to receive max-contract offers while playing a point guard position overrun with stars.
If he can stay healthy, the production will come. He's a playmaking wizard and a nightly triple-double threat, even while playing for a rebuilding Celtics squad. He's also on pace to become just the third player in NBA history to average at least 11.0 points, 8.0 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game for his career. The other two are Magic Johnson and Jason Kidd. Such company will help him earn serious coin next summer. So, too, will the rising cap.
"Essentially," wrote NBC Sports' Dan Feldman, "Rondo is entering the market with two limitations—in the last year before he’s eligible for the larger max for players with 10 or more years of experience, in the last year before the cap is pegged to skyrocket—that make him more appealing to potential suitors."
Model your offseason spending accordingly, teams; bidding begins next July.
3. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $16 million
Predicted Value: Five years, $108 million
As far as stoic poses against blood red-lighted walls go, LaMarcus Aldridge's reigns supreme. So does his scoring ability—specifically that logic-foiling mid-range game of his.
Although he's not always recognized as a superstar, Aldridge is a three-time All-Star and the only player to average at least 21 points, nine rebounds and one block per game between 2010 and 2014. The last time he failed to average at least 20 points per game (2009-10), Jonathan Bender was still in the NBA.
Hands off this guy, though. Aldridge, 29, seems to be one of those almost-extinct loyal types.
"I'm happy to stay, happy to be here, happy with the direction the team has gone the last year or two," he told The Oregonian's Joe Freeman. "This has no impact on my interest in staying in Portland. I just want to get a five-year deal."
And get a five-year deal from the Blazers he shall. Portland isn't a market that attracts star free agents. If the Blazers have the opportunity to keep their own, well, they will.
Market-perusing suitors can still try, of course. It never hurts to try—unless there's a cinder block head-butting contest involved.
2. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $15.8 million
Predicted Value: Four years, $72 million
Marc Gasol's free agency is going to be...interesting. He's truly one of the game's elite centers—easily top three—and can make an impact on either end of the floor. He has the offensive range of an almost-stretch forward, the court vision of a [insert your favorite point guard here] and the defensive aptitude of a Joakim Noah.
Translation: As next summer's second-best free agent, he's going to get paid. It's just unclear how much.
Joe Mullinax of Grizzly Bear Blues had some nice thoughts on this front:
"Yes, it is possible to overpay Marc Gasol. As skilled and impressive as Marc is, he is not LeBron James. He is not Kevin Durant, or Dwight Howard or any other superstar who can score in bunches, or take over and dominate a game by himself on both sides of the court night in and night out. He cannot, and has shown a tendency to not want to, take over a game offensively in particular.
[...]
He is a consummate teammate, a terrific facilitator, a tenacious defender and the most uniquely talented big man in the NBA. Is that worth three years, $54.6 million? Absolutely. Five years, almost $108 million? This is where uncertainty should begin to creep in.
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Handing centers max money at all is risky business these days. Shelling them out to towers who will be on the wrong side of 30 is even more dangerous. Offenses are built around big men in today's three-point-oriented NBA, which often marginalizes their role. Investing tens of millions of dollars in massive frames that have been through interior hell for nearly a decade is also cause for concern.
This writer won't be shocked if Gasol remains with the Memphis Grizzlies. But he will be shocked if they offer him a max deal spanning four or five years. That commitment would inevitably take a toll on the rest of the roster.
Regardless, there will be plenty of teams—including Memphis—ready and willing to pay him a whole lot. For as much downside as there is when rolling the dice on veteran centers, Gasol remains a two-way game-changer.
1. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted (player option)
2014-15 Salary: $15.7 million
Predicted Value: Five years, $108.7 million
Kevin Love's free agency is already complicated. He was almost an honorable mention because 1) he's one of the big names who could opt into the last year of his deal or sign a shorter contract with the intention of entering free agency in 2016 and 2) who would leave James high and dry?
Even Love's predicted contract length implies he isn't going anywhere, since the Cavaliers are the only team that could offer him a five-year deal. Wojnarowski also reported that Cleveland traded for the power forward with "a firm agreement Love will opt out of his contract in 2015 and re-sign" next summer. In all likelihood, he's staying put.
Still, if his plan is to opt out, there will be a courting frenzy. Big-market squads such as the New York Knicks, Houston Rockets and Lakers could all have cap space to burn, and the 26-year-old is the type of player to burn it on.
Just last season, he became the first player in league history to average 26 points, 12 rebounds and four assists while also hitting at least one three-pointer. He's a superstar, a top-10 player, a fortunes-turning building block.
Barring an unforeseen, relationship-ruining lover's spat between James and Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert, Love will be next summer's alpha dog.
*Salary and contract information via ShamSports. All contract predictions based on a projected $66.3 million salary cap for 2015-16. Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference unless otherwise cited.
