Chances for Mets to Land Each of Their Expected Offseason Targets

Two big questions are facing the Mets this offseason. Who will play shortstop? And who will play left field?

The Mets have just endured their eighth consecutive season without a postseason berth and sixth straight losing season. Big moves need to be made in order to get the Mets back in the playoff mix.

General manager Sandy Alderson and his assistants will have a lot on their plates this offseason to get the Mets to move in the right direction. The team already has a lot of young talent, particularly among their pitchers, but more veteran leadership is always good to have.

The Mets need another bat or two to help the lineup get on base more often and produce more runs. Some power and/or speed would be nice additions as well.

Here are some predictions as to whether the Mets will end up signing a few of the more prominent free agents this offseason.

Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera

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If the Mets feel they can do better at shortstop, one option to consider in free agency is Asdrubal Cabrera.

Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Cabrera will end up signing a three-year, $27 million deal this offseason, whether it's with the Nationals, for whom he played in the latter part of the 2014 season, or elsewhere.

Cabrera hit .241 with 14 home runs and 61 RBI this year and will be just 29 next season, which means that he is in the prime of his career.

However, though the switch-hitter may have youth on his side, his numbers have declined the past two seasons. This could be a red flag.

All in all, Cabrera should be able to provide similar run production in comparison to Wilmer Flores, or maybe even a bit more. He also has more veteran experience, which could be a plus for such a young team like the Mets.

However, the Mets would probably be better off playing Flores, who will be making very little money, instead of signing Cabrera to a $9-10 million-per-season salary.

Chance the Mets sign Cabrera: 20%

Shortstop Jed Lowrie

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Another shortstop the Mets could look into signing is Jed Lowrie.

Lowrie is coming off a down year this season, but the switch-hitter has shown some power in the past with 16 home runs in 2012 and 15 in 2013. But unlike Cabrera, Lowrie at his age has only been a starting shortstop the past two seasons. Because of this, the Mets may not even look at Lowrie as a definitive starting shortstop but rather as very good middle-infield depth.

However, Lowrie has already stated that he would like to play a position on a full-time basis, whether it be at shortstop or second base. This very likely means he would only want to play somewhere he was going to start every day instead of being a utility infielder.

If Lowrie does not command a high asking price, he could be useful to the Mets, but there is no guarantee that he will be able to provide noticeably more offensive production than Flores.

Because committing to Lowrie would mean committing to him as an everyday shortstop, the Mets should be somewhat cautious with him at first and see how the free-agent market plays out before really thinking about signing him.

Chance the Mets sign Lowrie: 30%

Shortstop Hanley Ramirez

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The big prize among free-agent shortstops is Hanley Ramirez. 

Ramirez is one of the most elite shortstops in all of baseball. However, he has not played for a full season in the past two years, and thus injury risk will likely become a greater concern for him as he gets older.

But Ramirez will be 31 next season, which means that he will almost certainly ask for a massive contract. This would be quite a high-risk, high-reward scenario for the Mets to consider, but as a big-market team, the Mets should at least see what kind of contract he would want and then go from there.

Ramirez has as much talent as any shortstop in baseball, but giving a $100-plus million contract to an injury-prone player could risky enough that the Mets will most likely not end up being major suitors for him.

Ramirez is a great example of a high-risk, high-reward player. He could have a few great seasons and give the Mets another feared right-handed bat alongside David Wright, but Ramirez could also spend a lot of time on the disabled list or underachieve, which would make the signing look foolish and remind Mets fans of what happened when Jason Bay was around from 2010-2012.

So while in a dream scenario Ramirez could be the missing piece to a Mets championship, the Mets will almost certainly not be the team that ends up signing him this offseason.

Chance the Mets sign Ramirez: 5%

Outfielder Melky Cabrera

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Melky Cabrera is one outfielder the Mets should consider for the void in left field.

Cabrera is coming off a solid season that included a .301 average, 16 home runs and 73 RBI and has played well in the past few years. He provides contact, power, some patience and reliable defense in the outfield.

However, the Blue Jays seem very interested in keeping Cabrera around for the future and will likely give him a qualifying offer if they cannot agree on a long-term extension just yet.

But if talks fall through and he becomes a free agent, Cabrera would be worth a reasonable contract for around three years. If he wants more years, though, it will be a riskier deal.

Chance the Mets sign Cabrera: 30%

Outfielder Nelson Cruz

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The Mets could definitely use another power bat in their lineup, which makes Nelson Cruz someone to consider for the outfield.

Cruz led all of baseball this season with 40 home runs and also had 108 RBI. However, he is 34 and spent the majority of the year as a designated hitter, so it seems like Cruz would be better suited for an American League team that has the DH option.

Furthermore, the Orioles are probably going to give Cruz a qualifying offer, which shows that they certainly want to keep him around next season. That, plus the fact that the Mets are in the National League, means Cruz likely won't be a Met.

Chance the Mets sign Cruz: 2%

Outfielder Michael Cuddyer

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Another free-agent outfielder the Mets should look into is Michael Cuddyer.

Andy Martino of the New York Daily News has already suggested that Cuddyer could be a very good fit with the Mets because he could turn into a bargain signing and the Mets would not have to part with any of their young pitchers to get him in free agency.

Cuddyer is also from the same hometown as David Wright (Chesapeake, Virginia), so that connection could only make a potential match more likely to happen.

Cuddyer might be on the older side but still has quite a bit of power and is an above-average outfielder. He would be a great short-term fix in the outfield for the Mets until top outfield prospects Brandon Nimmo and Cesar Puello are ready to be called up.

Nimmo and Puello are both a year or two away from becoming major leaguers, so a two-year deal for Cuddyer could seem quite likely.

Chance the Mets sign Cuddyer: 70%

Outfielder Nick Markakis

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Yet another outfielder the Mets should keep an eye on is Nick Markakis.

Markakis' $17.5 million option for 2015 will not be picked up by the Orioles, which means that the two sides will try to come to terms on a cheaper contract.

However, don't expect Markakis to try to seek a big contract this offseason on the open market. Markakis has spent his entire career with the Orioles and is a fan favorite. But if Markakis somehow ends up becoming a free agent, the Mets would likely see him as one of their most desired targets.

Markakis can hit for both average and power, draws his fair share of walks and does not strike out much. He has hit 10 or more home runs in every season in his career thus far and has also played in 150 or more games in seven of the past eight seasons. This kind of reliable durability could be just what the Mets need in the outfield: a proven hitter who is successful and doesn't get hurt.

Again, whether Markakis even hits the open market has yet to be determined, and with the deep ties he already has to the Orioles it's very likely he will remain in Baltimore for the foreseeable future.

Chance the Mets sign Markakis: 5%

All statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.