Florida State Football: Game-by-Game Predictions for the Month of November

No. 2 Florida State caps off the month of October Thursday night at Louisville, and a victory on the road over the Cardinals would be the ideal way for the Seminoles to kick off the final month of the regular season.

November is more than favorable for an FSU team with hopes of hanging on to its undefeated record. Three of the Seminoles’ four games are at home, and the lone road contest is against a Miami team they have defeated in seven of the last nine meetings.

Needless to say, Thursday’s game at Louisville very well could be FSU’s final test before postseason action begins. 

Here are the game-by-game predictions for the month of November.

Nov. 8 vs. Virginia

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Like most of the ACC's Coastal Division, Virginia enters November at .500 in league play to go along with its 4-4 overall record. The Cavaliers have lost three straight and play at Georgia Tech Saturday, Nov. 1, before making another trip south a week later to play at FSU Nov. 8 in a 6:30 p.m. ET game on ESPN.

Virginia hung tough with then-No. 7 UCLA in the season opener before falling 28-21 and boasts a 23-21 triumph over then-No. 21 Louisville earlier in the year. But since then, the Cavs have juggled quarterbacks—Matt Johns and Greyson Lambert have a combined 1,837 yards passing this year with 12 touchdowns and 11 interceptions—and have been middle-of-the-road defensively. 

Virginia will likely struggle against Jameis Winston and the potent FSU offense. The Cavaliers are currently surrendering 236.2 yards passing per game. They make up for it against the run, though. Virginia is currently third in the ACC with an average of 100.4 yards per contest.

That won’t be enough, though. Facing the reigning national champions on the road in a game that will be played primarily under the lights of Doak Campbell Stadium isn’t a recipe for success for this average Virginia squad.

Florida State 35, Virginia 13

Nov. 15 at Miami

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Florida State hasn’t lost to Miami away from Tallahassee since Jan. 1, 2004, in the Orange Bowl and hasn’t lost a regular-season showdown with the Hurricanes since Oct. 11, 2003.

FSU’s four-game win streak at Miami hasn’t always been easy—three of those victories have been by four points or less—but it has certainly helped write the narrative of the Seminoles’ current status as Miami's superior.

This year, the 'Canes may be generating the necessary momentum they need to put an end to that home losing streak. They are coming off impressive wins over Cincinnati and Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks after a disheartening loss at Georgia Tech dropped them to 3-3 overall back on Oct. 4.

Miami hosts North Carolina this weekend before experiencing the benefit of a bye and then welcoming its biggest rival to Sun Life Stadium Nov. 15. If the Hurricanes are riding a three-game winning streak and continuing to ride the legs of star tailback Duke Johnson, could an upset be on the horizon?

This one won’t be as easy for the Seminoles as many may have predicted before the season started—or even a month into the year—but FSU still has superior talent and more depth. It will be close, though.

Florida State 31, Miami 24

Nov. 22 vs. Boston College

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Last year’s game between Florida State and Boston College featured a season-defining second half for the eventual champion 'Noles. FSU was outplayed by BC in the early part of that game before making the necessary adjustments and never struggling in a game again until it reached the title game against Auburn.

This year’s edition of the series won’t have the same defining FSU moments, but it still should result in the same outcome with a Seminoles victory—but it won’t be easy.

The 'Noles will face a familiar foe in Eagles quarterback Tyler Murphy, who transferred from Florida in the offseason and has been a tough, dual-threat leader for the Boston College offense this year. Murphy is never going to wow anyone as a pure passer—he has just 1,034 yards passing and six touchdown tosses this year to go along with six interceptions—but leads the team with 843 total rushing yards.

Murphy’s 105.4 yards-per-game rushing will be a point of emphasis for the FSU defense when this game rolls around the schedule.

The Eagles have to play at Virginia Tech and then host Louisville, but they get a well-timed bye the week before playing at FSU. The extra time will do Boston College well, but it won’t be enough for it to derail what I think will be a still undefeated Florida State team.

Florida State 49, Boston College 17

Nov. 22 vs. Florida

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The Seminoles need to be careful. This year’s annual showdown with rival Florida could prove to be a lot like the 2004 rendition. 

That year, the Gators headed to Doak Campbell Stadium as heavy underdogs in much the same way they are likely to do this year. UF also entered that 2004 game with a lame-duck coach in Ron Zook, who had already been fired.

Fast-forward 10 years and the coaching situation is likely to be just as tumultuous for Florida, as current head coach Will Muschamp is not likely to hang on to his job after a 3-3 start and games against Georgia and South Carolina still on the schedule before FSU.

But despite the struggles and the coaching issues, Florida won that 2004 game 20-13 on the very night Florida State honored legendary coach Bobby Bowden by naming the field after him.

While Muschamp isn’t likely to be hoisted on his players’ shoulders in gleeful exuberance and carried out of Doak Campbell Stadium like Zook was a decade ago, there’s no denying that UF players will be focused on sending their coach out a winner.

There’s only one problem for the Gators: that offense. The UF defense is going to cause a swamp full of issues for Winston and FSU, but that offense has shown no signs to date that it will have any success against the 'Noles defense.

In this case, the team with Winston under center—and not Jeff Driskel (or Treon Harris)—will emerge victorious.

Florida State 24, Florida 9

Final Analysis

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November Record: 4-0

Overall Record through November: 11-0

I wrote a month ago that I thought FSU would emerge from the gauntlet that was the month of October with an unblemished record—and at the time of publication of this article (Tuesday, Oct. 28) that remains true.

FSU’s toughest test the rest of the year is playing at Louisville, and should the 'Noles beat the Cardinals, they should have no issue earning a spot in the ACC Championship Game in December without a notch in the loss column.

But if FSU loses to Louisville, the picture becomes a lot less pretty for the playoff-hopeful Seminoles. A one-loss ACC team is probably on the outside looking in at the College Football Playoff, and there’s no telling how this team will respond should it sustain its first loss since late November 2012.

Assuming Florida State pushes its winning streak to 24 games with a victory at Louisville, a second consecutive undefeated November will likely happen—and with it, a spot in the game’s final four and a chance at a second consecutive national title.

Brandon Mellor is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of Seminoles.com and TheACC.com. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.

Follow @BrandonMellor on Twitter.