Complete Stat Predictions for Every Cleveland Cavaliers Starter This Season
Kevin Love has spent years compiling historic numbers for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but now faces the challenge of sharing the spotlight, and shots, with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
It's an adjustment he, and some other Cavs, will have to get use to this season.
"I'd be lying to myself and lying to everybody here if I was telling you I didn't have to sacrifice," Love told Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick. "I think it's going to have to be an effort throughout the entire team to do what's best for the Cleveland Cavaliers."
Such is the case for not only Love, but fellow stat-stuffers like LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and others.
While James has proven he can still put up impressive numbers when surrounded by an All-Star cast, it's up to the rest of the Cavs' starters to prove they can do the same.
Here's what to expect statistically from every Cleveland starter in 2014-15, compared to their numbers from a season ago.
Anderson Varejao, Center
1 of 5
2013-14 Season Stats: 8.4 PTS, 9.7 REB, 2.2 AST, 0.6 BLK, 49.5 FG%, 17.0 PER, 27.7 MIN
2014-15 Projected: 6.2 PTS, 8.1 REB, 2.1 AST, 0.5 BLK, 52.1 FG% 16.5 PER, 24.2 MIN
Now entering his 11th year with the Cavaliers, Varejao returns to his early days of hustling, grabbing rebounds and serving as the ultimate role player. The past few seasons forced Varejao to accept a greater scoring role, something he won't have to worry about doing so much anymore.
Varejao may have won the starting center job, but don't be surprised if backup Tristan Thompson still receives more minutes. Given his extensive injury history, coach David Blatt would be wise to limit Varejao's minutes to 22-26 per game.
How will that affect his stat line?
Well, Varejao's still going to collect a high amount of rebounds regardless of court time. He's become a vacuum around the basket. Only Love (13.0) and Dwight Howard (12.9) have averaged more boards than Varejao (11.1) over the past three years.
His scoring should see a dip, as Varejao will collect most of his baskets off cuts to the hoop and wide-open mid-range jumpers.
Don't expect Varejao to become an immediate shot-blocker overnight either, much to Blatt's dismay.
While rebounding and efficiency will remain high, look for Varejao's minutes, and the rest of his stats, to drop.
Kevin Love, Power Forward
2 of 5
2013-14 Season Stats: 26.1 PTS, 12.5 REB, 4.4 AST, 0.5 BLK, 45.7 FG%, 26.9 PER, 36.3 MIN
2014-15 Projected: 18.9 PTS, 11.8 REB, 4.5 AST, 0.4 BLK, 48.5 FG%, 22.4 PER, 35.1 MIN
Love may see the greatest statistical drop-off, even if he'll still be putting up All-Star numbers.
There's just no way Love comes close to his gaudy scoring average of a season ago. Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic were nice scorers, but didn't demand nearly the amount of shots that James and Irving will.
Rebounding should still be a strong point, even if Love is forced to share some caroms with Varejao and Thompson. Since coming into the league in 2008-09, only Dwight Howard (13.3) has a higher rebounding average than Love (12.2).
One area where Love could actually increase his already impressive average is the passing department. Playing in Blatt's Princeton-based offense means Love will be handling the ball at times, with plenty of assist opportunities available. Love racked up a power-forward best 4.4 dimes a game last year throwing outlet passes to Corey Brewer. Just how many will he amass now snapping them off to James?
Love's shooting numbers should also increase due to open looks following the double-team of players like James and Irving. In six preseason games, Love shot 48.1 percent from the field and 43.5 percent on three-pointers, via RealGM.com.
Although he'll see his scoring and rebounding numbers take a hit, Love should still thrive statistically this season.
LeBron James, Small Forward
3 of 5
2013-14 Season Stats: 27.1 PTS, 6.9 REB, 6.3 AST, 1.6 STL, 56.7 FG%, 29.3 PER, 37.7 MIN
2014-15 Projected: 24.3 PTS, 6.5 REB, 8.1 AST, 1.7 STL, 54.2 FG%, 30.5 PER, 37.5 MIN
When James morphed from solo act to "Big Three" member, his stats underwent a noticeable change.
Teamed up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, James' efficiency numbers spiked during his four seasons with the Heat. He shot just 47.5 percent from the field over seven seasons in Cleveland, then converted at a 54.3 percent rate in Miami.
While James didn't see as big of a scoring drop-off as most would have predicted (27.8 to 26.9), this could have been contributed to Wade's continuous trips to the trainer's table.
Even though 24 points a game seems like a lot to 98 percent of NBA players, it would actually represent James' lowest scoring output since his rookie season.
Cleveland doesn't need his scoring, however, and James knows it.
Expect an increase in assists from James, who averaged a career-high 8.6 during his last season in Cleveland. He won't reach that peak again, but could certainly come close.
Blatt is very aware of his superstar's minute load, telling Joe Vardon of the Northeast Ohio Media Group:
"I don't have a number but I am cognizant of the fact and we are conscious of the fact that, certainly early on 39 minutes a game is a lot. We gotta keep our wits about us in terms of thinking long term with LeBron.
"
James has never played less than 37.5 minutes per game in any of his 11 pro seasons.
Don't be surprised if Blatt keeps the soon-to-be 30-year-old forward under that mark this year.
Dion Waiters, Shooting Guard
4 of 5
2013-14 Season Stats: 15.9 PTS, 2.8 REB, 3.0 AST, 0.9 STL, 43.3 FG%, 14.0 PER, 29.6 MIN
2014-15 Projected: 13.1 PTS, 2.2 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.1 STL, 46.8 FG%, 15.7 PER, 28.8 MIN
Waiters is a tough player to project now that he's won the starting job.
He could very well be the Cavaliers' biggest X-factor, notes Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group:
"The truth of the matter is that if the Cavaliers are to have any high level of success this season, Waiters, as the team's starting two-guard, is going to have to play smart, team basketball. He's got the skill-set to provide a valuable service. He has the opportunity to re-brand himself as a top perimeter defender, not just an offensive force.
"
After finishing last season as the team's second-leading scorer, Waiters now becomes the fourth offensive option in the Cavaliers' starting five.
This means a lower scoring average and likely a drop in assists as well. With Irving and James sharing the court, Waiters won't get to handle the ball as much as he has in the past.
One area where Waiters should improve is his shot selection. Stopping the flow of the offense so he can play one-on-one with an opposing guard isn't going to fly with James.
Look for Waiters' shooting percentages to spike, while the rest of his stats may take a hit due to a drop in overall usage.
Kyrie Irving, Point Guard
5 of 5
2013-14 Season Stats: 20.8 PTS, 3.6 REB, 6.1 AST, 1.5 STL, 43.0 FG%, 20.1 PER, 35.2 MIN
2014-15 Projected: 17.8 PTS, 3.4 REB, 7.6 AST, 1.6 STL, 47.8 FG%, 21.2 PER, 36.5 MIN
With no proven veteran behind him, Irving's minutes should remain plentiful.
Add in a dream supporting cast, and there's no reason why his assists shouldn't reach career-best levels.
For three years, Irving was the Cavaliers' offense.
Mike Brown especially relied on Irving to create off pick-and-roll and isolation opportunities, offensive schemes that would ultimately hurt his shooting percentages. His 43 percent shooting from the floor was a significant drop from the 45.9 percent Irving averaged over his first two seasons.
Irving must now adapt his role from scoring guard into true floor general. His play will be needed setting up guys like James and Love while still finding time to score here and there. This could mean the lowest scoring average of his career, but also the highest assist and shooting percentage as well.
As D.J. Foster of ESPN.com reports, it's finally time for Irving to cash in his talent for better point guard play:
"There have been negative side effects to the overreliance on those abilities, though, as Irving has developed into a sometimes reluctant distributor, content with taking the first shot that is available to him. Irving’s usage percentage was practically identical to Stephen Curry’s last season, but Curry’s 39.9 assist percentage was drastically higher than Irving's 31.6.
"
While Irving's scoring total will be interesting to watch, it's his increase in assists that will ultimately help lead to Cavalier victories.
Greg Swartz has covered the Cleveland Cavaliers for Bleacher Report since 2010. Connect with him on Twitter for more basketball news and conversation.
All stats provided by Basketball-Reference.com and my imagination unless otherwise noted.
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