Grading Miami Heat's Final 15-Man Roster

After a tumultuous offseason and a handful of interesting preseason battles, the Miami Heat have their final 15. The roster the four-time defending Eastern Conference champions will enter 2014-15 with is set. And while a fifth straight Finals berth is likely out of reach for this group, this is a team with the pedigree and the talent to potentially make some noise in a conference that’s still lagging behind its counterpart to the West.

Miami’s mix of young and old, raw and seasoned, is interesting—if incongruous. If everything breaks right, this could be a very good basketball team. It’s not impossible to imagine a 50-win campaign.

If Shabazz Napier develops into a sound starter, Dwyane Wade fights off Father Time for another year, Chris Bosh flourishes in his return to an alpha-dog role, Josh McRoberts continues his ascent, Luol Deng bounces back from a down year to All-Star form and Chris Andersen keeps marching on—well, that would be a hard squad to beat.

That said, there’s not a sure thing in that bunch, and a sub-40-win season seems as likely as not for an organization that’s accustomed to setting its sights on loftier goals. This is what happens when a team loses LeBron James. Better to have loved and lost—then watched them find new Love—than never to have loved at all.

"We're going to have those growing pains all year," Wade told the Sun Sentinel’s Ira Winderman. "But we're going to do it together, and that's the only way we're going to be successful."

What follows is a position-by-position breakdown of the 2014-15 Heat, with an eye on what each group can do to nudge Miami back in the direction of the league’s elite.

Point Guard: C-

Brandon Dill/Associated Press

The less Heat fans see of Cole, the better.

Starter: Norris Cole

Backups: Mario Chalmers, Shabazz Napier

This group will go a long way toward determining how Miami’s season pans out. There’s a pretty wide range of possible outcomes here.

Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers are both known quantities—albeit very different ones—while Shabazz Napier is the wild card.

We’ll take it from the bottom. Cole is a consistently below-average player. According to Basketball-Reference.com, by measure of win shares per 48 minutes, he’s never had a year where he offered even 30 percent the production of an average point guard. The less Miami plays him, the better.

Chalmers meanwhile is relentlessly mediocre: His career win shares per 48 minutes is exactly .1—the league average—and his statistics across the board, advanced and otherwise, have barely budged since he entered the NBA out of Kansas in 2008.

That brings us to Napier. Though he struggled mightily in the summer league, the rookie from Connecticut showed signs of growth in the preseason. He has, without question, the most potential in this group. He led the NCAA in win shares last season, per Sports-Reference.com, while leading the Huskies to the national title. And at 23, he should be ready to make good on it right away.

Shooting Guard: B-

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

The Heat will need a healthy Wade in 2014-15.

Starter: Dwyane Wade

Backups: Shannon Brown, Andre Dawkins

Miami’s hopes at the shooting guard position are simple: Hope Dwyane Wade stays healthy.

Miami showed a smart commitment to resting Wade last season. The guard played just 54 games and, when he did suit up, played a career-low 32.9 minutes a night.

“Wade was on a strict maintenance program last season to keep his knee from flaring up during the playoffs as it did the year prior, and that left him a game-time decision most nights,” ProBasketballTalk’s Brett Pollakoff elaborated in September.

If this continues, they have a good chance to keep the 32-year-old upright.

Given the dearth of talent behind Flash, his health becomes especially high stakes. Wade’s backup, Shannon Brown, hasn’t hit a three-point shot since 2012-13, and the third man off the bench, rookie Andre Dawkins, is an undrafted free agent out of Duke.

Small Forward: B-

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Deng was brought over from Cleveland in the offseason to shore Miami up at forward.

Starter: Luol Deng

Backups: Danny Granger, James Ennis

This is a frisky group.

Luol Deng had a rocky season in 2013-14, as he was shuttled from the Chicago Bulls to the then-moribund Cleveland Cavaliers in a surprising trade, and his defense appeared to slip a notch or two. But it’s not difficult to envision Deng finding the form that made him an All-Star in 2012 and 2013 in a culture like Miami’s.

Danny Granger appears to be at the end of the rope, but he’s a former All-Star and 25 points-per-game scorer who can still shoot the basketball. If things break right, he could be a useful piece.

James Ennis, meanwhile, could be a lot of fun to watch. The 6’7” second-round pick from the 2013 draft spent last season in Australia—and briefly in Puerto Rico—where he averaged better than 21 points and seven rebounds and was named All-League. He was tremendous for Miami in the preseason and summer league and could carve out a significant role with the Heat this season.

Power Forward: C+

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

McBob's passing and shooting skills will carry Miami at the position.

Starter: Josh McRoberts

Backups: Shawne Williams, Udonis Haslem

This is a thin group, but it has a very interesting talent at the top of the rotation.

Josh McRoberts came over from the Charlotte Bobcats—now Hornets—this summer to act as a sweet-shooting, post-passing, complementary piece to LeBron. Well, we know how that worked out.

But McRoberts, irrespective of James’ presence, should be a huge help to Miami. He’s entering his age-27 season, coming off a career year, and as a stretch 4 who can move the basketball, he has a skill set that makes him a perfect fit in the modern NBA.

There isn’t a lot to say about the backups here.

Shawne Williams has never managed to be a productive player in his six-year NBA career, and Udonis Haslem, at 34, has too many miles on the odometer to continue to be one.

The Heat would have been wise to hang onto undrafted free agent Khem Birch at this position. The rookie was dominant at UNLV and has the athleticism and rim-protecting abilities to be an immediate impact player at the NBA level.

Center: A-

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The two reasons Miami is so strong at the 5.

Starter: Chris Bosh

Backups: Chris Andersen, Justin Hamilton

This could be a dominant group.

According to NBA.com, in 2013-14 Bosh was fourth in the NBA in field-goal percentage from within five feet. This augers well for a player who will be spending plenty of time inside this season as the anchor of Miami’s offense.

Bosh’s primary backup is also a quietly effective player. Chris Andersen has long been one of the most efficient backups in the NBA and, as seen via Sporting Charts, has posted one of the highest true shooting percentages in basketball—both in the regular and postseason—for several years.

Backup Justin Hamilton hasn’t put together a large enough body of work to say a great deal about him, but this trio still looks like the strongest positional group on the Heat and—potentially—one of the best center units in the NBA.