How Gerald McCoy Extension Impacts Ndamukong Suh, Lions Negotiations

Some news from the NFL interrupted Saturday's college football bonanza, and it has strong pertinence to the Detroit Lions. 

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The Bucs have agreed to a long-term contract with DT Gerald McCoy reportedly worth $98 million w/$51.5M guaranteed http://t.co/SpPEu5FNtC

— Bleacher Report NFL (@BR_NFL) October 25, 2014"

Ndamukong Suh, your market is officially set. 

Suh is headed for free agency at the end of this season, as was McCoy before he and the Bucs reached agreement on the new deal. While both sides worked at getting a deal done, the Lions suspended negotiations at the start of training camp in July. 

The two defensive tackles are inextricably linked. Suh was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft, with McCoy following one spot later. Both have been impact talents.

	Games	Tackles	Sacks	TO Created	Pro Bowls
Suh	70	153	31	4	3
McCoy	57	103	21	5	2

Pro Football Focus (subscription required for premium content) has graded them out a little differently. It's worth noting Suh's run defense score has improved dramatically over the last two seasons, where it totals 13.9 to McCoy's 3.6.

	Run Defense	Pass Rush	Penalty	Overall
Suh	-15.2	89.0	-17.3	60.0
McCoy	5.3	106.0	-12.5	100.8

While Suh has the advantage of durability, NFL general managers are extremely valid in viewing the two players as equals. Those who value advanced statistics probably value McCoy higher than Suh. 

So when Suh tries to demand a richer deal than the one McCoy signed, he's going to meet a lot of resistance.

Joel Corry breaks down the details of McCoy's new deal at National Football Post. In his comprehensive breakdown, Corry notes,

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McCoy’s deal contains $51.5 million in guarantees. It is the second-largest amount of guarantees ever in an NFL contract for a defensive player behind J.J. Watt’s $51,876,385.

$14,757,308 is fully guaranteed at signing, which consists of a $2.5 million October 26 roster bonus and McCoy’s $12,257,308 base salary for the remainder of this season.The roster bonus is treated like signing bonus and prorated over five years because it’s in the season of signing with a contract executed after the final pre-season game. An additional $36,742,692 is guaranteed for injury at signing. McCoy’s $5 million 2015 base salary, $6 million 2016 base salary and $6.5 million third day of the 2015 league year roster bonus become fully guaranteed.

"

It's going to be hard for Suh to extract more guaranteed money than either McCoy or J.J. Watt received. Guaranteed money is what really matters in the contract, as few stars ever play out the entirety of their massive contracts.

In terms of the increase in total contract value, Corry observes that McCoy's extension represents "an 18.4% increase over the average salary of his rookie contract."

The agreement came after quite a bit of negotiating. Both sides actively pursued the deal for months, a stark contrast to what has happened with Suh and the Lions.

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The #Bucs and Gerald McCoy exchanged countless proposals, working on this deal every week since before camp. Both sides wanted it.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 25, 2014"

This is another area where Suh and McCoy are divergent. Suh has made it clear he takes the business side of his game very serious. He has held his leverage advantage over Detroit like a sledgehammer, and he seems hellbent on seeing what he can get on the open market.

Based on what the top four defensive contracts are at the moment, the former Nebraska star is not going to like what he hears.

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The Bucs Gerald McCoy now has the 2nd-highest guaranteed money to a defensive player and the top to a DT. pic.twitter.com/9QqhtIxQDe

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 25, 2014"

While the details of the negotiations between Suh and the Lions have not been made public, it's safe to assume the defensive tackle wants to be firmly in that above picture. As reported over the summer at Detroit Lions Draft, 

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While there are no official, documented details of the contract talks, several “insiders” have offered pretty consistent figures when asked about what the Lions were offering and what Suh was (sort of) demanding. People whom I trust have told me the Lions offered substantially more than the 5 years/$53.3 million the Bengals signed Geno Atkins to last year. Substantially more. 

"

Suh and his representation know where the Lions stand. They have a very solid idea of how much Detroit will be willing to pay to keep the spearhead of its defense. 

McCoy's deal probably put a wet blanket on their aspirations of how much more he can command at season's end. It's not going to be more than a token amount above McCoy, and it's hard to imagine anyone paying him what Houston is giving Watt—almost inarguably the best defensive player in the league.

Could this actually improve the odds the star tackle remains in Detroit?

Perhaps. If the market reality is such that Suh finds Detroit's offer fair, he might value the familiarity and chance at winning compensates for an extra cosmetic million or two from teams like the Jets and Raiders. 

Only one person can answer that, and he is not talking. This issue will continue to hang over Ndamukong Suh and the Detroit Lions for the rest of the season.