Denver Nuggets 2014-15 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown, Win-Loss Prediction
After ending the 2012-13 NBA season third in the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets could not escape the injury bug last year and fell into the lottery for the first time since 2003.
The Nuggets bring back the majority of their core heading into this year and are hoping a healthy season from their starters will help them land a playoff spot in a loaded Western Conference.
Denver is an interesting team, as it is one of the deepest squads in the league. But its lack of a dominant offensive player may preclude it from competing with some of the star-loaded lineups in the West.
It’s clear that the Nuggets' success predominately rides on their ability to stay healthy, as Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawson, Nate Robinson and JaVale McGee all went down with significant injuries at some point last season.
This is a young, talented team with a lot of potential that could turn into a legitimate threat in the Western Conference if it can develop chemistry and significantly cut back on the number of injuries in 2014-15.
Biggest Question Mark
After missing the entire 2013-14 season from a knee surgery, there is no question that Danilo Gallinari should be considered the biggest question mark this year. Once considered the prize of the Carmelo Anthony trade, Gallinari has failed to live up to the hype due to a string of injuries over the past few seasons.
Gallinari’s main strength is his ability to score in a variety of ways. After starting his career as predominantly a three-point shooter, Gallinari has since expanded his offensive game to the point that he is an efficient scorer who can draw fouls and knock down free throws.
In 2012-13, his last healthy season, Gallinari shot 37.3 percent from beyond the arc and knocked down 82.2 percent of his free throws. Assuming he has fully recovered from his knee injury, Gallinari should have another strong scoring performance.
In addition to a strong offensive game, Gallinari is also a sound defender as well. In 2012-13, he had a defense-per-100 rating of 1.2. To put that into perspective, renowned defender Patrick Beverley had a rating of minus-0.5 that same year.
Clearly, the tools are there for Gallinari, but as always, he will need to stay healthy to contribute to the Nuggets this season.
Best Five
Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, Timofey Mozgov
Despite not having an All-Star in their starting lineup, the Nuggets will still throw out a solid group that doesn’t appear to have any holes.
The lineup is very young and loaded with potential, as no player is over 29. In addition, every player in the starting unit except for Arron Afflalo has yet to reach his peak as a basketball player.
The least-accomplished player in the starting unit is Timofey Mozgov, but he still averaged 10.8 points per game, 7.6 rebounds per game and 1.3 blocks per game as a starter last year. Mozgov has looked great so far in the preseason for the Nuggets and should see his game elevate in 2014-15.
However, for the Nuggets to compete, one or two players from this group must develop into a star player. Lawson, Afflalo, Gallinari and Faried have all looked like very good players at times in their careers, but they’ll need to become more consistent for the Nuggets to have a chance this year.
Youth Movement
After pulling off multiple trades on draft night, general manager Tim Connelly acquired two first-round draft choices in Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris.
Nurkic is a 6’11, 280-pound raw center from Bosnia and Herzegovina who could eventually turn into the Nuggets' big man of the future. With a massive body that he uses to post up and grab rebounds, Nurkic has the ability to become a very good offensive player.
He will take time to develop, but a few years down the road Nurkic could end up being one of the hardest big men to cover on the block. Some experts, via NBADraft.net, compare Nurkic to Nikola Pekovic of the Minnesota Timberwolves, who has quickly developed into one of the best offensive centers in the league.
The other first-round pick rights they acquired were for Gary Harris, a 6’4” shooting guard out of Michigan State. Although a good shooter and scorer in college, Harris may struggle to adjust to the pros because of his size.
He is stuck in a tough position, as he has the game of a shooting guard but body of a point guard. However, if he can develop a three-point shot and use his athleticism to blow by bigger defenders, he could end up becoming a very good offensive threat for the Nuggets for years to come.
Team Award Predictions
Breakout Player: Ty Lawson
In a point guard-driven league, the jury is still out on whether Ty Lawson is just an average starter or capable of being a top-10 player at his position. After missing 20 games in 2013-14, a full 82-game season will give Lawson a stronger case for the latter.
He still had a strong year statistically in 2013-14 with 17.6 PPG and 8.8 RPG. Although critics may state that Lawson has become a less efficient player with the increased workload—his turnovers have increased, and field-goal percentage has decreased over the last few years—he was still second in PER with the Nuggets last season.
With the addition of Arron Afflalo and Danilo Gallinari coming back from a year-long injury, Lawson will not be asked to take as many tough shots on offense and should become even more efficient this season.
Without a true star on the roster, the opportunity is there for Lawson to make the Nuggets his team. 2014-15 will be the year Lawson develops into a premier player in the Western Conference.
Best Addition: Arron Afflalo
After one of the biggest offseasons in recent memory, with LeBron James and Kevin Love changing teams, GM Tim Connelly quietly pulled off one of the best trades of the summer by re-acquiring Arron Afflalo from the Orlando Magic for Evan Fournier and a second-round pick. Afflalo brings scoring, defense and experience to the shooting guard position, three things the Nuggets lacked at the 2 last season.
If Afflalo can average between 18-20 PPG, play quality defense and limit the number of mistakes the Nuggets make, Denver will have a strong chance of reaching the postseason in 2014-15. Fortunately, this is Afflalo's second stint with the Nuggets, so it shouldn't take long for him to develop chemistry with his teammates.
Least Valuable Player: JaVale McGee
The second-highest paid player on the Denver Nuggets is center JaVale McGee, a player who has lost his starting job after injuries plagued him for all but five games in 2013-14.
The problem with McGee was that he was not particularly good when he was healthy. The 7-footer averaged just 3.4 RPG and shot .447, an abysmal mark for a player his size. One could argue that this is a small sample size, but McGee’s low basketball IQ has always made him a frustrating player no matter what team he’s played for.
With two years and 23.25 million left on his contract and Mozgov taking over the starting duties at center, McGee is clearly the least valuable player on this young, talented roster.
When Dust Settles…
In the Northwest Division, the Denver Nuggets are stuck between two teams with title aspirations and two other teams who are more focused on who they are going to draft come June.
Even with Kevin Durant out for the beginning of the season with a foot injury, the Oklahoma City Thunder are still one of the best teams in the NBA. Right behind them are the Portland Trail Blazers, led by Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Trail Blazers are young and talented, and they figure to be even more dangerous this season.
On the other side are the Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz. The Timberwolves showed everyone in the league they’re looking to rebuild after trading perennial All-Star Kevin Love to the Cleveland Cavaliers this summer. The Jazz are still a few years away from contending for the postseason, with no player in their starting unit over the age of 24.
That puts the Denver Nuggets right in the middle of the division. With a starting lineup that has few holes but no star player, the Nuggets are an average team in the Western Conference. If they can stay healthy, they could squeeze into the No. 8 spot in the West, but you should expect a very early exit if they do reach the postseason.
Assuming health isn’t a concern like it was last year, the Nuggets will finish the 2014-15 season with a record of 44-38.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, HoopsHype.com and ESPN.com.
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