Sacramento Kings 2014-15 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown, Win-Loss Prediction

The expectations for the Sacramento Kings have changed heading into this 2014-15 season. 

Last year—his first as owner and with a new general manager and head coach—Vivek Ranadive wasn't concerned with the team's win-loss record. It was a good thing, as the Kings ended up finishing with a 28-54 record, identical to the previous campaign.

However, Ranadive's outlook has changed this season. The owner talked to reporters at media day and told them he expected an improvement in the team:

"

Last year, when the season started, I said it wasn’t going to be about wins and losses. When I came here and we bought the team, there was dysfunction in the locker room, there wasn’t mutual respect, the arena was literally falling apart, the roof was falling down.

So we brought in a new team, we restored stability, restored respect, we put in a strong culture. But this year, let’s be clear, it is about wins and losses.

"

While the owner declined to put a specific number or expectation on the table, he did add, "We have to do a lot better than we did last year."

Making the sort of improvements ownership expects will be a task in the difficult Western Conference. The Kings didn't add any marquee players. They drafted Nik Stauskas and signed Ramon Sessions, Darren Collison, Ryan Hollins and Omri Casspi in free agency. 

The franchise's biggest trump card is more familiarity with head coach Mike Malone in his second season with the team. Hopefully that, coupled with improvement from players already on the roster, will be enough to make serious headway.

However, there are still plenty of question marks. Starting with...

 

Biggest Question Mark: How Do They Replace Isaiah Thomas' Offensive Production?

The Kings lost one of their key players when point guard Isaiah Thomas signed an offer sheet with the Phoenix Suns. As a restricted free agent, the Kings were able to execute a sign-and-trade with Phoenix, but the package the Kings received (a $7 million trade exception and the rights to Alex Oriakhi) doesn't compare to the production they lost.

That means Sacramento will need to replace Thomas' production through other means. 

Most notably, Collison and Sessions will be asked to fill those shoes. But despite Thomas' 5'9", 185-pound stature, they're big shoes to fill.

The point guard averaged 20.3 points and 6.3 assists in 34.7 minutes of action. He also produced a team-high 6.4 offensive win shares.

Going off of what Collison and Sessions did last season, the duo combined for 23.7 points and 7.8 assists in 52.6 minutes. The two also produced 6.9 offensive win shares. 

It'll require a similar effort—if not a better one, considering each will probably see a small reduction in playing time—to make up for what the Kings are missing. 

However, if the preseason is any indication, they should be up to the task. Their average of 25 combined points and 9.3 assists would do the trick. But there's obviously a big difference between the preseason and the regular season. 

Yet if the Kings are to make the jump in the standings the front office expects, that production will need to hold up.

 

Best Five

Point guard: Darren Collison

Shooting guard: Nik Stauskas

Small forward: Rudy Gay

Power forward: Jason Thompson 

Center: DeMarcus Cousins

This is more like a projection of the best five players for the upcoming season. Although no starting lineup for the regular season has been announced, Ben McLemore will probably get the nod over Stauskas to start the year. He's started five of the team's six preseason games at 2-guard.

However, Stauskas' shooting ability, which we'll get to momentarily, should be enough for him to supplant McLemore by the end of the season.

Point guard is also up in the air, with Collison or Sessions the two options to start. Collison gets the nod here for a couple reasons.

For one, he's started four of the six preseason games, while Sessions has only started two. Collison is also primarily a point guard, whereas Sessions is capable of playing both backcourt spots (52 percent of his minutes came at the point and 48 percent at the 2 between his stops with the Charlotte Bobcats and Milwaukee Bucks last season). 

Power forward is the other spot that has a few options. Namely there's Carl Landry, Reggie Evans and Thompson. Thompson started 61 games there last season, and he's started five of six games this preseason. 

Not to mention Thompson, along with Evans, had a very strong training camp.

All of those factors give him the edge. 

Center and small forward really aren't up for discussion. Cousins is the team's best player, while Gay is unquestionably its second-best player. Both made Team USA for the FIBA Basketball World Cup and are the cornerstones of this franchise.

If the Kings are to do anything at all this season, it'll be because of the production they get from Cousins and Gay.

 

Youth Movement

Stauskas was the Kings' only draft pick this offseason.

The former Michigan Wolverine plays shooting guard and figures to have a prominent role with the Kings. He's averaged 24.4 minutes during the preseason and has started one of the five games he's appeared in. 

The player who's started the other games at 2-guard is also a youngster—Ben McLemore. The 21-year-old is entering his second season in the NBA. After a lackluster rookie season, the Kings are hoping to see improvement from McLemore in 2014-15. 

How the two of them play will be a big determining factor in whether the team can live up to those lofty expectations. McLemore will need to find more consistency to his shot—he only made 37.6 percent of his field goals and 32 percent of his three-pointers as a rookie.

Stauskas, on the other hand, has a great shot. He's made 36.8 percent of his three-pointers during the preseason and knocked down 44.1 percent of them in his two years at Michigan. His major adjustment will be to the increased speed and physicality of the NBA game.

Adding an additional layer to the equation is the long-term outlook of whether the two can develop next to one another. With both playing the same position and being incapable of switching to the 1 or 3 for extended periods of time, they'll need to progress without huge playing time. It'll also be interesting to see if the presence of Stauskas has any effect on McLemore's psyche.

Those were some concerns listed by NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper when the Kings drafted Stauskas.

There's also the possibility power forward Eric Moreland plays with the Kings. The rookie is intriguing because of his ability to block shots and rebound—two blocks and five rebounds in 20 preseason minutes—but he's likely to spend most of the year in the D-League.

 

Team Award Predictions

 

Best Offensive Player: DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins' was the team's highest scorer last season (22.7 points), and it figures to be much of the same this time around. 

Without Isaiah Thomas on the team, who was one of three Kings players to average more than 20 points, the ball will go to Cousins with even more regularity. That's saying something considering the center was third in the league in usage percentage, trailing only Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

But with Cousins, it's not a case of only volume. He gets his points in an efficient manner. In fact, he was fifth in player efficiency rating, with only Durant, LeBron James, Kevin Love and Anthony Davis ahead of him.

Between his ability to get to the charity stripe (9.3 attempts per 36 minutes), his efficiency and his touches, Cousins will be Sacramento's best offensive player. While it'll require improvement from all over the roster to meet expectations, the Kings will go as Cousins goes. 

 

Best Defensive Player: Omri Casspi

There were a few directions to go for the team's best defensive player. Truth be told, Cousins could also win this one as well. However, for the sake of change, let's look at a different player in Casspi.

Casspi deserves recognition because of his ability as a wing player. According to 82games.com, he held opposing small forwards to a PER of 6.9 last season. With 15.0 being league average, Casspi did a solid job shutting down the opposition. 

His previous team, the Houston Rockets, were also a stronger defensive team when he was on the floor. They posted a 103.9 defensive rating with Casspi in the game, opposed to a 107.2 defensive rating when he was on the bench. 

Considering Gay is the unquestioned starter at small forward, Casspi can fill a similar role in Sacramento. Meaning he can be a defensive sub who comes in to help slow down opposing teams. That's an important option to have as he can not only help on defense, but he can do so while giving Gay a rest.

 

Most Improved Player: Carl Landry

Based on last season's output, nobody is likely to improve as much as Landry. That's mainly because he was so poor last year, rather than him making a dramatic improvement over his previous production.

Last season was Landry's first back in Sacramento, after he played for the Kings during a previous stint a few years ago. Unfortunately he was hurt for most of the campaign, only appearing in 18 games throughout the season.

However, his scoring (4.2 points), rebounding (3.2) and win shares per 48 minutes were the worst of his career. Of course, Landry also played fewer minutes, both per game and overall, than he had during any other season. That could partially explain the decrease in scoring and rebounding.

However, his points (11.7) and assists (0.8) per 36 minutes, player efficiency rating (11.2) and free-throw rate (2.6 attempts per 36 minutes) were all career worsts.

At just 31 years old, it's unlikely Landry's athleticism suddenly fell off a cliff. Simply by returning to previous production, he'll be the team's most-improved player.

 

Team MVP: DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins is clearly the Kings' most valuable player. Without him, the team would be lost, which is saying something considering it hasn't been too productive to begin with. 

For evidence, look no further than what happens when Cousins misses games. Last season the center missed 11 games. The Kings' record in those 11 games he missed—0-11.

He also led the team in scoring, rebounding, steals and blocks per game. Not to mention he had the most total win shares, defensive win shares, win shares per 48 minutes, the highest PER and the lowest defensive ranking.

At only 24 years old and coming off an offseason working with Team USA at the FIBA Basketball World Cup, Cousins won't see that production decrease. If anything it'll increase. 

 

When the Dust Settles... 

Ranadive and the front office may be expecting dramatic improvement in the team's win-loss record, but it likely isn't in the cards. 

It's just too tough to compete in the difficult Western Conference. Not to mention the Kings haven't added enough quality players to expect a dramatic improvement in their on-court talent. Therefore, what it'll really come down to is how they adjust to a second year in Malone's system.

More familiarity with the coach and his expectations will definitely help. But at 28-54 last season, there's just too much ground to make up to even qualify for the playoffs. So even if the Kings improve, it may not be enough to satisfy those expectations. 

At this point, a better question isn't whether the Kings make the playoffs—it's whether they can do enough to earn Malone and general manager Pete D'Alessandro another year at the helm. 

Final Prediction: 31-51

 

Unless noted otherwise, all stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

How do you think the Kings will do? Let me know on Twitter @SimRisso.