San Francisco 49ers with Most to Prove in Second Half of 2014 Season
The conclusion of the San Francisco 49ers' first half of the 2014 season came with an embarrassing 42-17 defeat at the hands of the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football.
All considered, the 49ers really had no business winning that game. It was Peyton Manning's show as he tied, and subsequently broke, the all-time record for passing touchdowns. And he did it in prime time.
Facing a tough opponent on a short week and on the road was a difficult task within itself. Doing so with a roster depleted by injuries and setbacks hindered any chances for an upset.
The 49ers enter a bye in Week 8. It is the perfect time for San Francisco to refresh, heal and regroup as the team prepares for an arduous second half of the season.
To be honest, the 49ers have to feel pretty good about where they are at nearing the halfway point. A 4-3 record and in second-place berth in the vaunted NFC West is nothing to scoff at. San Francisco has faced some stiff competition already, having done so with a roster that is not at 100 percent.
Saying the 49ers have weathered a big storm is one thing. Applying improvements and increasing momentum in the second half is another.
Can this be accomplished? Can the 49ers storm back over the remaining nine weeks of the regular season?
If they do—and Niner fans hope they will—the results will largely be based upon the performances of key figures on San Francisco's roster.
We'll break down the 10 49ers with the most to prove in the latter half of 2014.
To do this, let us set up some basic criteria. Each player is considered based on his expected 2014 role. Backups and reserve players obviously do not rank high on this type of list. Even starters may miss the cut, either because they have performed consistently enough or their respective roles are complementary to the players listed herein.
Ranked players are judged on expectations and/or current achievements through eight weeks. Would-be studs who have fallen short of expectations are candidates here. Others, who have excelled already but need to push the envelope further, are also considered.
The second half figures to be the defining time for this San Francisco franchise. This period will be the make-or-break moment that will eventually determine the outcome of the 49ers' 2014 season.
Worthy of Note
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Some players do have a lot of expectations riding on their performance in the latter half of the season. Heck, one can argue that each member of the 52-man roster has a lot to prove over the remaining nine games of the schedule.
But here are some key names whom should at least be mentioned before getting into the bulk of our assessment.
Marcus Lattimore, RB
Second-year pro Marcus Lattimore has yet to take the field in a meaningful game since being drafted by the 49ers in Round 4 of the 2013 NFL draft.
Lattimore's collegiate knee injuries have sidelined him ever since. After starting another season on the non-football injury (NFI) list, Lattimore's NFL debut looks to be on the horizon.
According to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area, Lattimore will be cleared to practice following San Francisco's bye week.
The 49ers are already thin at running back after having lost Kendall Hunter to a season-ending knee injury and releasing LaMichael James. The only two backs on the active roster are Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde.
But Lattimore doesn't make the final list because he'll likely start out as San Francisco's No. 3 back. While spelling his superiors will be a huge asset, it's hard to speculate what type of production he'll provide until he actually takes the field.
Joe Staley, LT
San Francisco's pass-protection problems came to a head when Denver got to quarterback Colin Kaepernick six times during the 49ers' Week 7 loss.
Left tackle Joe Staley was one of the offensive linemen to blame, having been primarily responsible for multiple sacks of San Francisco's signal-caller.
This highlight shows us how badly Staley got burned on one particular play. Staley is supposed to be one of the anchors of what was once an elite 49ers O-line. He has endured an up-and-down season so far, so we should expect more out of him in the second half.
But this entire unit has struggled, so all of the blame cannot be placed on one player alone. Thus, Staley doesn't quite make the final list.
Ray McDonald, DE
Defensive end Ray McDonald has a lot to prove during the second half. No, we aren't talking about just proving his innocence in the wake of his arrest for domestic violence.
According to Chris Mortensen of ESPN, the 49ers are prepared to discipline the 30-year-old veteran with a suspension or termination of contract when, and if, charges are filed.
Let's not get into the argument whether or not San Francisco made the right decision in not deactivating him while the ongoing legal process played itself out. Instead, let's focus on what McDonald needs to do moving forward.
He needs to show that San Francisco made the right decision in keeping him active—both on and off the field.
With character an obvious question, McDonald's subsequent actions will continue to be the center of speculation and discussion.
Bruce Ellington, WR
San Francisco's rookie wideout has scantly contributed to the 49ers offense in 2014 minus, of course, his first NFL touchdown in "garbage time" of Week 7.
Instead, Bruce Ellington has served as San Francisco's primary return man in the wake of James' departure.
While his kickoff returns have been notable, Ellington's punt returns bear need for improvement.
"Bruce Ellington has not figured out when the fair catch, when to return and when to let it go.
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoCSN) October 14, 2014"
Ellington is averaging just 7.6 yards per return on the season.
Granted, it can be tough for a rookie return man to make this sort of adjustment. Coverage units at the pro level are so much better than they are at the collegiate level.
He gets a pass because of this, but it still an area in which he and the 49ers would like to see significant improvement.
Anthony Davis, RT
Right tackle Anthony Davis has endured an injury-riddled season that has seen him make just two starts on the year.
Davis did not look particularly good in his return in Week 7, when he matched up against Broncos pass-rusher Von Miller.
Part of this could be because the combination of knee and ankle injuries have hindered his effectiveness and preparation for a full-time role. Only Davis and the 49ers' medical staff could tell you, though.
Davis does have to prove that he can live up to the lofty contract San Francisco extended to him last season. The bye week will give him a chance to rest and return to 100 percent.
Perrish Cox and/or Chris Culliver, CB
Who should be the 49ers' No. 2 cornerback behind Tramaine Brock? Take your pick between Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver.
Cox has three interceptions on the season and has emerged as a pleasant surprise after San Francisco shook up its secondary during the offseason. On the flip side, Culliver does have a physical presence but has largely lacked the coverage skills desired for what the defensive backfield needs.
With Brock returning from a toe injury, who will the 49ers pick to step up and assume the No. 2 cornerback spot when the secondary finally returns to full health?
Cox doesn't want to see his role diminished. It's hard to imagine Culliver not having the same mindset.
No. 10: NaVorro Bowman, ILB
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First, let us state the obvious.
Linebacker NaVorro Bowman will be able to return to being the type of player that earned him All-Pro accolades last season.
The only question is when.
Bowman's injury in the NFC Championship was about as gruesome as it gets. Expected to miss about half the season, Bowman, in his attempt to return to the starting lineup, has epitomized the hard work and determination we have come to expect out of this exceptional linebacker.
But returning to action and being at 100 percent are two different things. This author would take an 80 percent Bowman over a 100 percent anybody else any day of the week. Yet rushing his return could prove to be disastrous.
According to general manager Trent Baalke (h/t 49ers.com), Bowman's recovery is on schedule, and the All-Pro is making strides in the right direction.
"#49ers GM Trent Baalke on @NBowman53: "He's progressing well. (He's) on schedule." LISTEN: http://t.co/1HpGe2m8g7 pic.twitter.com/iDnUBeUPD7
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 21, 2014"
But the initial projection of a midseason return may not be the case.
Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee (h/t David Fucillo of Niners Nation) speculates that Bowman will return somewhere around Week 14. There's a lot of time between then and now.
Of course the real question will be whether or not Bowman will be able to contribute at the level San Francisco's defense so desperately needs him to.
He'll be hitting the field right at the time the 49ers will hopefully be making a playoff push. So it's safe to say there is a lot riding on his return, given how important of a cog he is within San Francisco's defense.
No. 9: Vance McDonald, TE
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Second-year pro Vance McDonald may be running out of chances with the 49ers, after what is turning into another disappointing season for the team's No. 2 tight end.
We should give McDonald's rookie year a pass. Not all tight ends transition smoothly into a bona fide NFL threat. Delanie Walker had a slow start to his career. Even Vernon Davis took some time to earn his stripes.
But McDonald's struggles have continued to reveal themselves during regular-season games. Yes, he has had some notable moments in training camp and during the preseason, but his most memorable play in his two seasons was a negative one—the fumble he gave up in Week 6 against the St. Louis Rams.
"Very well-designed pass play to Vance McDonald ends with the tight end coughing up the ball on impact with man 50 pounds lighter.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) October 14, 2014"
This play, among others, has epitomized the 24-year-old's difficulties at the NFL level.
McDonald has just two receptions for 30 yards on the season. We won't go so far to say that the book on McDonald should be closed. But it could very well be nearing that point.
With No. 3 tight end Derek Carrier waiting in the wings, the window for McDonald to emerge as the complementary piece to Vernon Davis and the passing game is starting to close.
He'll have the second half to sort this out.
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No. 8: Marcus Martin, C
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Welcome to the pros, rookie.
Rookie center Marcus Martin may have lost the starting battle at center to Daniel Kilgore at the beginning of the season, but he'll have a chance to showcase himself now that Kilgore is lost for the year after suffering a broken leg in Week 7.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh stated via Tyler Emerick of 49ers.com that Martin has been pegged to start in place of Kilgore from this point onward.
"#49ers rookie C @TheRealDoubleMs pegged to replace injured starter @DanielKilgore67. READ: http://t.co/J9fFWgGxK5 pic.twitter.com/jemgOdYDOG
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 21, 2014"
The USC prospect was widely viewed as one of the best collegiate centers coming out in the draft. Now it is his turn to shine.
San Francisco's offensive line has endured its fair share of injuries over the course of 2014. Kilgore was one of the few O-linemen who played with any degree of consistency.
Martin will look to fill that void.
In doing so, the rookie will have to live up to the expectations San Francisco has for its O-line going into the second half of the season. This unit has struggled over its first seven games, and the coaching staff will look to Martin to help get the line back on track.
That's a lot to ask for a rookie, especially when considering how much the 49ers rely on the O-line to ignite its ground game and provide adequate protection for Colin Kaepernick.
Hopefully Martin proves equal to the task.
No. 7: Michael Crabtree, WR
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So far into 2014, it has been Anquan Boldin who has been Colin Kaepernick's favorite receiving target.
The 34-year-old leads the team in receptions (39) and receiving yards (447) after seven games. But these are numbers we probably expected to see out of Michael Crabtree.
One might have thought a healthy combination of Boldin and Crabtree would vastly improve San Francisco's passing game. Perhaps it has, as we should not dismiss the notion that the defenses' concentration on Crabtree opens up opportunities for Boldin and the other 49ers receivers.
But Crabtree has not been as much a factor as one might expect—surprising considering that he is in the midst of a contract year.
Crabtree has totaled 32 receptions for 322 yards and three touchdowns. He is averaging just 46.0 yards per game—certainly not the numbers one might think a No. 1 receiver would generate.
"#49ers WR Michael Crabtree 2014 yards by week: 25, 82, 80, 43, 16, 49, 27. Has caught 50% or less of his targets in 3 of 7 games.
—Dylan DeSimone (@DeSimone_80) October 21, 2014"
Steve Berman of Bay Area Sports Guy speculates this could be due to three different factors: Crabtree is dealing with a nagging injury; there are simply too many receiving weapons, and/or it's a long season and Crabtree's biggest games may yet come.
We might also speculate the 49ers are preparing an offense for life after Crabtree, if the team elects to take that route.
Any of these possibilities may be the case. Or all of them for that matter. We really don't know.
What we do know is that Crabtree will be seeking a hefty contract during the offseason. As of now, the production doesn't match a lofty salary.
We'll see how Crabtree responds to this in coming weeks. He has big expectations, as do the 49ers, so it is impossible to rank him any lower on this list when considering the context.
No. 6: Aaron Lynch, OLB
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One might think that rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch does not need to be mentioned on this list, especially as high as No. 6.
He has already proven capable of competing at a high level. In fact, one could argue that his insertion into pass-rushing formations has saved what has largely been an inept 49ers pass rush.
It's hard to argue against that.
But here is where Lynch needs to prove even more.
Even with the rookie linebacker's presence on the field, San Francisco's pass-rushers have generated just 12 sacks on the season. That's good for No. 22 in the league. After taking over the outside pass-rushing duties for second-year pro Corey Lemonier, Lynch has been a force with which to be reckoned.
He's done plenty. He'll need to do more.
Here is where we can get into the speculation and why his importance is ranked so high.
Suspended linebacker Aldon Smith—we'll get to him soon—is scheduled to return shortly. While it's widely anticipated that Smith will resume his duties as San Francisco's primary pass-rushing threat, Lynch can ill afford to slow down his maturation process.
Here's the expectation: Imagine a scenario in which the 49ers employ a pass-rushing tandem that includes both Lynch and Smith.
"Aldon Smith and Aaron Lynch both on the field could add up to winning games Niners otherwise might lose.
— Tre9er (@Tre9er) October 20, 2014"
Suddenly, San Francisco's pass rush goes from a prime weakness to a preeminent strength.
But is that a lot to live up to for this rookie?
You bet, and we should assume that Lynch wouldn't have it any other way.
Given the struggles San Francisco's pass-rushers have endured this season, there is a lot riding on the shoulders of this troubled linebacker-turned pass-rusher in his first pro year.
Hopefully he can continue his upward surge.
No. 5, Tank Carradine: DE
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Let's stick with the 49ers pass rush, but notch it up a bit.
The expectations of Aaron Lynch were certainly never higher than those of second-year pro Tank Carradine.
Carradine missed his rookie season recovering from a collegiate injury, which certainly hindered his development and growth. But one might have speculated—especially with Justin Smith's age and Aldon Smith's suspension—that the 49ers would have figured out a way to get Carradine more involved this season.
This is especially compounded by the anemic San Francisco pass rush through seven weeks.
But Carradine has been active just once this season. The rest of the time, this talented Florida State pass-rusher has been with the 49ers' inactives—certainly not meeting the expectations one would hope for when San Francisco drafted him No. 40 overall a year ago.
Why has this been the case?
Carradine and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio have both stated via Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee that the physically gifted defensive end is not quite there when it comes to picking up the mental aspects of the game.
“I'm close, you know?” Carradine said. “There are some things that I get, a lot of stuff I get. Then there's some stuff I don't get. And when you compare that to somebody else who's been in the system longer, of course they're going to know more than you.”
So when does Carradine reach that vital turning point?
"Vic Fangio transcript: Tank Carradine 'improving' in assignments *VIDEO* http://t.co/R8ifMbuMkZ #NFL #49ersTalk pic.twitter.com/RVP1cltAG3
— Comcast SportsNet (@CSNAuthentic) September 25, 2014"
Considering San Francisco's woes in the pass rush, it's hard to figure out exactly why Carradine has been inactive so frequently. Granted, the coaching staff has better information on this topic than this author, but it still prompts a serious question.
Keep in mind that Justin Smith, while playing at a high level, isn't getting any younger. We also don't know what will happen regarding Ray McDonald and his domestic violence case.
The pressure is on you, Tank.
No. 4: Mike Iupati, LG
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It all starts up front with the offensive line.
Left guard Mike Iupati ranks the highest on this list for O-linemen, which is not surprising given a variety of factors.
First, Iupati is entering a contract year. Has his level of play warranted the type of contract he will likely seek during the offseason?
Second, the 49ers have performed poorly this season overall in pass protection. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been sacked 19 times over this stretch, and it is hard to count the number of times he has been under pressure without running out of fingers and toes.
Granted, not all of this is on Iupati's shoulders. Almost each member of the 49ers O-line has struggled at some point this season. Injuries and inconsistent play have factored into this discussion.
But Iupati is supposed to be one of an interior anchor of this line, both for the running game and in pass protection. He has performed well enough in the former area, while not so much in the latter, according to Jeff Deeney of Pro Football Focus (prior to Week 7).
"Mike Iupati has struggled in pass protection, but his +10.9 run block grade leads all LGs. He will be missed against Broncos stout run D.
— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) October 19, 2014"
If San Francisco wants to get its offense, especially the running game, back on track, Iupati's play will be vital. Anchoring the left side of the O-line with Joe Staley, Iupati will be called upon to protect Kaepernick's blind side as well as set up the multitude of interior running plays the 49ers love to execute.
But Iupati is playing for more than just the 2014 season. Having drafted rookies like Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas (NFI), one has to wonder what the 49ers' plans are for Iupati after this year.
Will they re-sign him?
This author's guess would be no, but the second-half performance of Iupati will provide us with a better assessment of what the future holds.
Oh, and that performance will be vitally necessary to the success of the 49ers in 2014.
No. 3: Frank Gore, RB
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2014 may very well be Frank Gore's swan song with the 49ers, perhaps as an NFL player.
The 31-year-old running back has already crested the age where most backs hang up their cleats. With younger players like Carlos Hyde and Marcus Lattimore waiting to get into the mix, Gore is already feeling the pressure of being the "old man" on the team.
But regardless of how many four- and five-wide sets we see San Francisco employ, the fact remains that this is Gore's offense. He remains the bell cow upon which the offense so often ebbs and flows.
"Stat Greg Roman fans will enjoy: This year Frank Gore is averaging 18.5 carries in wins, 9.3 in losses.
— Chris Biderman (@ChrisBiderman) October 22, 2014"
Gore has both father time and the expectations of the 49ers offense riding on his shoulders, which is why he is ranked so high on this list.
But let's take a look at a smaller sample size to evaluate what those expectations are in coming weeks.
Gore rushed for 119 yards on 24 carries in Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles. He followed up that performance with a 107-yard, 18-carry performance against the Kansas City Chiefs the subsequent week.
The St. Louis Rams, who sold out to stop the run, limited Gore to just 38 yards in Week 6. But the veteran still got 16 carries. Yet he touched the ball only nine times in San Francisco's Week 7 loss to the Denver Broncos.
Part of the reason why Gore's Week 7 results were low was because the 49ers found themselves trailing 21-3 early in the contest. Some of the blame may also fall on offensive coordinator Greg Roman for not utilizing him properly.
But we can understand Roman's game plan, provided this is the reason, to hold back on using Gore so frequently. Gore needs to be kept fresh for another playoff run. Burning him out early is the last thing the 49ers can afford to do.
Yes, San Francisco may consider utilizing Hyde and Lattimore on a more frequent basis. One could even make the argument that Hyde deserves to be on this list, like Lattimore. It would be hard to disagree.
But the running game still revolves around Gore. The 49ers offense is strongest when it has the ground game working in full force.
You see the importance here.
Gore wants his ring, and it will require his utmost efforts in the second half if San Francisco hopes to achieve its prospects for a Super Bowl crown.
No. 2: Colin Kaepernick, QB
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This author struggled with the Nos. 1 and 2 guys on this list and determining exactly who should rank out as the top guy with the most second-half pressure placed upon him.
But No. 2 wound up being San Francisco's signal-caller Colin Kaepernick.
The quarterback position is obviously the most important job on offense, perhaps on the entire roster. The 49ers put their faith in Kaepernick with the lofty extension granted to him during the offseason.
Now comes the time for Kaepernick to live up to those expectations.
Prior to the season, Hall of Famer Steve Young commented via NFL Live (h/t Michael David Smith of NBC Sports) that Kaepernick should run less and learn to work through his progressions more frequently.
We can perhaps evaluate Kaepernick's progress in that area by comparing his accuracy from last year to 2014.
Through seven weeks of this season, Kaepernick is completing 63.8 percent of his passes—up from 58.4 percent from a season ago.
Granted, Kaepernick has more weapons with which to work this season. But he has been hindered somewhat by the general ineffectiveness of San Francisco's pass protection in 2014. Having been sacked 19 times on the year, Kaepernick is well on his way to equalling the total number of sacks he suffered in 2013 (39).
But lets look at Kaepernick's Week 6 performance as an example of what can happen with San Francisco's franchise quarterback.
In that matchup, Kaepernick tossed for 343 yards and three touchdowns, completing 62.86 percent of his attempts in the process. This was against a St. Louis Rams defense that currently ranks No. 4 in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed (1,404).
Fast forward to Week 7 against the Broncos' seventh-ranked pass defense (1,455 yards allowed), and Kaepernick played particularly well—minus one costly Aqib Talib interception, of course.
During this contest, Kaepernick threw for 263 yards with one touchdown and one interception, completing just over 61 percent of his passes. He was hindered by four crucial drops during the process.
Here is what CBS Sports' Pete Prisco felt about Kaepernick's performance.
"The past two weeks, Kaepernick is playing much better in the pocket, staying there and making throws.
— Pete Prisco (@PriscoCBS) October 20, 2014"
On the surface, it sounds like Kaepernick is doing a good job of late heeding Young's advice.
Yet San Francisco's prospects for a Super Bowl will likely ride on how far Kaepernick and his talents carry the offense. With Frank Gore, the 49ers at least have some quality backups that can spell the veteran running back from time to time.
This isn't the case with Kaepernick.
San Francisco will need Kaepernick to be at his best during the team's predicted playoff run. Making more plays and eliminating mistakes will be at the heart of what transpires with this team over the final half of the season.
With all the weapons around him, and nothing short of a Super Bowl in sight, the pressure could not be higher for the 49ers' man under center.
No. 1: Aldon Smith, LB
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The 49ers need linebacker Aldon Smith back on the field.
Now.
Here is the reason why Smith edged out Colin Kaepernick for the top spot on this list: San Francisco is a run-based team with a stout defense. These are the elements that have ignited the 49ers' return to greatness during the Jim Harbaugh era.
Kaepernick is vitally important. We cannot, will not, deny that. But the defense is what makes this team elite.
Granted, San Francisco's defense has held its own without players like Smith and NaVorro Bowman. This unit currently ranks No. 6 in the NFL in fewest total yards allowed (2,142). But the biggest weakness has been the 49ers pass rush, or lack thereof.
As noted previously, the 49ers have generated just 12 sacks on the season—ranking them No. 22 in the league.
While the pass-rushing prowess of players like Justin Smith and Aaron Lynch help, this unit clearly needs to improve once the second half of the season commences in Week 9.
Enter Aldon Smith.
The fourth-year linebacker could not be returning soon enough for this famished pass rush.
Even more enticing is the possibility that Smith could return a game, or two, earlier than what the NFL's initial nine-game suspension mandated. Mike Florio of NBC Sports' ProFootballTalk.com hinted at this possibility, though Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee noted that Trent Baalke and the 49ers front office were unaware of any developments.
Still, the possibility of an early return is certainly a positive.
But then comes the question as to whether or not Smith will be able to contribute at the level San Francisco so desperately needs.
Baalke noted via Taylor Price of 49ers.com that Smith is in excellent shape and is ready to contribute, physically.
"#49ers GM Trent Baalke says LB @AldonSmith is in "great shape." READ: http://t.co/AwcnmJGP6w pic.twitter.com/Vr4Vbgn1vw
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 21, 2014"
This is obviously great news. But will there be any rust that needs to be dusted off the Smith? Or will he combine with other members of the front seven—like rookie Aaron Lynch—to formulate another vaunted pass-rushing unit? Those will be the biggest questions facing Smith and the 49ers defense.
San Francisco needs Smith to be in midseason form once he takes the field. While the 49ers defense has gotten by during the first half, any playoff push would be in jeopardy if Smith is unable to compete at the high levels expected of him.
Take into account San Francisco's three losses on the season. What would the results look like if Smith had been on the field? Would he have been the critical difference?
We can ask what-ifs all day, but it won't get us anywhere. Instead, let's reemphasize the need San Francisco has for this prominent pass-rusher. If he can be the difference-maker down the stretch, the 49ers may easily be in line for another deep postseason run.
Anything less will assuredly be a disappointment.
Do you feel that another member of the 49ers has plenty to prove in the second half? Speak your mind on the comments section!
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers' news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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