5 Bold Predictions for the New York Knicks During 2014-15 Season
This is a transitional season for the New York Knicks, but there will be some bright spots amidst the growing pains.
In Phil Jackson's first summer as team president, he tweaked the roster to better fit his beloved triangle offense. The hope is that a more cohesive group of players with more compatible skill sets will produce a more harmonious kind of play in 2014-15.
There's reason to believe in New York's idealistic goal, but the Knicks are at the beginning of their transformation, not the end. Derek Fisher has his work cut out for him in his rookie season as a head coach, tasked with implementing an unfamiliar offense, as well as replacing last season's woefully inept defense with a strategically competent one.
How quickly Fisher and the Knicks can push through the upcoming season's growing pains will determine whether New Yorkl returns to the playoffs. The Knicks have the talent to do it, but they'll need a few breaks to go their way.
So let's go through what to expect from the coming season, starting with the most likely prediction—and a downer at that.
1. Fast Point Guards Will Still Destroy the Knicks D
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Before we get to the aspirational stuff, we'll get the sad inevitability out of the way.
Even with Raymond Felton shipped away, Knicks fans better be used to the sight of speedy ball-handlers carving the D to pieces.
Jose Calderon is an overall upgrade compared to Felton, but he's a significant defensive minus in his own right and particularly ill-suited to guard the Knicks' biggest headaches. He has better sense of positioning and footwork than his predecessor at point does, but Calderon is straight-up slow. Effort and attentiveness aren't enough for him to stay in front of someone like Kyle Lowry.
Even with his arsenal of sneaky tricks, Pablo Prigioni has proved himself incapable of that task as well. Iman Shumpert isn't quite quick enough to handle such assignments for extended stretches, so that leaves Shane Larkin to be New York's saving grace.
Don't count on him to come through, however. Larkin makes as many mistakes as you'd expect from a young guard still learning the pro game, and his size does him no favors. Listed at 5'11" and 175 pounds, he is predisposed to have difficulty denying his opponent driving and passing lanes.
On any given possession, the Knicks have an outside prayer of getting a stop against a speed demon. Doing so repeatedly for 48 minutes is an entirely different story.
2. Carmelo Anthony Still Finishes as Top-Five NBA Scorer
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Yes, the triangle fosters ball movement and scoring opportunities for anyone on the floor. But that's not going to stop Carmelo Anthony from being one of the league's most dominant scorers.
First off, let's remember what primary weapons have done in the triangle before. Jackson coached 10 scoring champs using this system—Michael Jordan eight times and Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant once each.
With openings for the supporting cast to contribute, the triangle makes it more difficult to double the star. In that sense, empowering Melo's teammates actually puts him in the greatest position to succeed.
That holds true for positioning on the floor as well. The Knicks will post Anthony up to capitalize on the single coverage against him, feeding him the ball in the post with shooters spotted beyond the arc and bigs clear from his path to the basket. In that situation, Melo could either take the ball to the rim or beat his man with a quick release to hit from midrange.
While that might sound like just a twist on his iso-heavy game of years past, remember that this offense is designed to get him the ball this way rather than force it in to him, and it manipulates the defense to give him the greatest chances to execute. Given Melo's world-class skills, he certainly will.
3. Tim Hardaway Jr. Will Be New York's Second-Leading Scorer
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Melo has a real shot to lead the whole league in scoring again, so he will surely pace all Knicks. The real question is, who will follow him?
J.R. Smith and Amar'e Stoudemire have both been Anthony's second banana before, but Tim Hardaway Jr. is prepared to fill that role in only his sophomore campaign.
As a rookie, TH2's stats were solid but not extraordinary. He put up 10.2 points per game—fifth on the Knicks behind Anthony, Smith, Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani—while shooting 42.8 percent from the field and 36.3 percent on threes. His shot selection was not the best, both because of youth and trying to carry bench-heavy lineups. But his ability to hit from any spot on the floor was encouraging.
This year, he'll get to attack off the bounce even more within the triangle while still giving him plenty of chances to bomb from deep. Hardaway looks even stronger bulling past defenders on his drives than he did last season, and he boasts an extra feathery touch once he gets to the rim. Adding more inside shots to his game will maximize the impact of his skill set.
Hardaway can be for the Knicks what Bradley Beal was for the Washington Wizards in 2013-14: a rising star who just begins to touch that potential future stardom.
4. Iman Shumpert's Redemption Is Coming
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While TH2 spent last season proving his long-term worth, Shumpert's seemed to be diminishing every time he touched the ball.
Inconsistent, unconfident and demoralized by Mike Woodson's harsh short leash, Shump could do no right on the offensive end. Either he took an off-balance jumper, pushed for a reckless drive or tried to force a too-difficult pass with easier options available. With every effort to redeem himself, he looked even less reliable.
Switching from Woody to Fish should already do wonders for Shumpert, who will no longer have to worry that any miss could lead to benching and chastisement. He'll be going through a learning experience to master the offense along with everyone else. And when he does get comfortable, the system will allow Shump to make quick decisions and take advantage of what his opponent is giving him.
That's a complete 180 from how he played in 2013-14, when his putrid offensive play often overshadowed that he was by far New York's best perimeter defender. Nothing has changed that, and Shump can now become the dynamic two-way threat the Knicks have hoped he could be.
5. Cole Aldrich Will Earn Significant Playing Time
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In comments to Charley Rosen on ESPN.com, Jackson noted Cole Aldrich's ability to operate in the paint on both ends of the floor, but he was not optimistic about the big man's playing time.
""Cole Aldrich is a blue-collar guy. He goes hard after rebounds, hustles around the hoop, knows his role and can score with a jump hook. Last season, Cole played better the more he played. Right now, he's our emergency center, who'll probably get significant time only if somebody gets hurt or our other bigs suffer a plague of foul trouble."
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So two things have to happen for Aldrich to earn major minutes: some other big has to get hurt, and Aldrich has to produce once he gets on the floor.
Step one is basically guaranteed to happen. Samuel Dalembert, Jason Smith, Stoudemire and Bargs are an especially injury-prone bunch. It will surprise no one if two of them were out at once. And if Dalembert goes down at all, Fisher will be compelled to play Aldrich for defensive purposes.
And that's what Aldrich will prove when his time comes: he's the best rim protector New York has at its disposal.
Dalembert is a solid shot-blocker, but he has difficulty keeping his man in front of him and is forced to try to disrupt the play from behind. Aldrich has that same problem but to a lesser extent, and he is stronger and springier than his more experienced teammate.
That veteran presence will keep Dalembert first on the depth chart. But once Aldrich starts making a defensive impact, he'll have to keep playing. And any positive defensive play will go a long way toward helping the Knicks secure a playoff spot.
Josh Cohen writes about the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @arealjoshcohen.
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