Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans will both try to bounce back from tough losses last week when they meet in Nashville on Sunday. The Texans blew an early 13-3 lead in a 30-23 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers as three-point underdogs on Monday Night Football, while the Titans fell 19-16 to Washington but still managed to cover the spread as 6.5-point road dogs.

Point spread: Texans opened as two-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 16.5-16.2 Titans

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston has a talented roster that has just struggled to put together a complete game over a full 60 minutes. The Texans played poorly early on in a 33-28 home loss to the Indianapolis Colts two weeks ago and then unravelled late in the first half of a 30-23 road setback against the Steelers on Monday night.

The difference is those were two tough opponents, and Tennessee does not present Houston with the same problems offensively. The Titans are extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball, scoring more than 17 points only once in their last six games. The Texans have also enjoyed a lot of recent success against Tennessee, going 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans hope to get starting quarterback Jake Locker back from a wrist injury, but even if he can’t go, backup Charlie Whitehurst has improved enough lately to give them a chance to win. Tennessee will be playing a Houston team that has lost three games in a row and four of five following a 2-0 start, sitting just one game ahead of the Titans in the AFC South standings.

The Titans nearly won on the road last week against Washington, but they need to start scoring more touchdowns than field goals to give themselves a better shot to earn a victory. The good news is that the Texans have struggled just as much lately, losing even more confidence after blowing their game at Pittsburgh Monday.

Smart Pick

This is a tough game to call with each team in a similar boat. For that reason, home field becomes important along with the fact that Houston will be playing its second straight game on the road with a short week due to playing Monday night.

The Titans could get a boost with Locker returning and would have probably beaten the Cleveland Browns had he been able to finish that game. Regardless, Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt is an offensive genius who would love nothing more than to see his team get back on track and pick up another win heading into the bye week.

Look for him to find a way to expose the Texans like the Steelers and Colts did en route to a victory.

Betting trends

• The total has gone OVER in four of Houston's last six games
• The total has gone OVER in five of Tennessee's last seven games when playing Houston

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.