Predicting the Biggest Busts of the 2014-15 Fantasy Basketball Season
Fantasy owners can claim league crowns using any number of different strategies, but all of them approach draft night with a single focus—maximizing the value of each selection.
Finding a few sleepers can help with that task, but the biggest piece of that puzzle is avoiding busts. Waste value on a pick, particularly early in the draft, and there may not be enough late-round gems and waiver-wire finds to salvage your season.
There are different levels of draft busts, and it's imperative to remember that the label is fluid. All of the players on this list are worth having in 12-team leagues at the right price, but they are all being overvalued on draft boards.
Some are walking injury risks who could disrupt a fantasy roster at any moment. Others are at risk of seeing statistical regression thanks to offseason changes that could minimize their minutes and lessen their opportunities to produce at a level befitting of their draft position.
Don't avoid these players on draft night, but if you're willing to pay the current premiums to acquire them, prepare to have a tough time recouping the full value of your investment.
Gerald Green, SF, Phoenix Suns
1 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 114.3
How did the Phoenix Suns rapidly transform from a supposed tanker to a team that rattled off 48 wins? In short, they got a career year out of just about everyone who stepped foot inside in the desert.
No player better encapsulated that phenomenon than 28-year-old journeyman Gerald Green. The former slam-dunk specialist set personal bests almost across the board: minutes (28.4), points (15.8), threes (2.5), three-point percentage (40.0) and player efficiency rating (16.5).
Simply repeating that level of production might take a miracle. He was a below-average player his first six seasons in the league (11.9), which were sandwiched around stints in Russia, China and the D-League.
Let's assume that his lengthy journey to all ends of the basketball world helped him grow as a player. Let's also assume that coach Jeff Hornacek's uptempo offense gave Green the perfect setting in which to thrive.
Even with those assumptions, it's tough to like Green's chances to repeat his success. The Suns' perimeter is deeper than before with the offseason arrivals of Isaiah Thomas and rookie T.J. Warren. Marcus Morris is also still around and paid better than he was.
The Suns should benefit from the added depth, but fantasy owners need to plan for Green's expected trip back to reality.
Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami Heat
2 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 111.9
On the surface, things seem to be looking up for Mario Chalmers' fantasy prospects.
LeBron James has someone else to yell at now that he's back with the Cleveland Cavaliers (Dion Waiters, anyone?), and the four-time MVP has a different point guard to take touches away from too. Add in Dwyane Wade's lingering injury concerns and the fact the Miami Heat didn't land any ball-dominant players in free agency, and Chalmers might actually look like a breakout candidate.
Why, then, is he graded out here as a bust? Because he's still Mario Chalmers.
While he has matured as a player since, he averaged just 8.6 points on 41.2 percent shooting and 4.2 assists during the two seasons before James' arrival in Miami. Chalmers even split playmaking duties during his days at Kansas (3.8 per game for his career), and high IQ players like Josh McRoberts and Luol Deng could eat into Chalmers' assist chances.
If Chalmers doesn't add to his assists, he's a low-volume scorer with a decent three-point shot (career 37.3 percent). And that might be a best-case scenario, considering he could be pushed for playing time by both Norris Cole and 2014 first-rounder Shabazz Napier.
This late in the draft my strategy is always to target someone with upside like Doug McDermott (112.3) or Tim Hardaway Jr. (112.5). If you have to grab a point guard with this pick, Trey Burke (113.5) is a much better option.
Manu Ginobili, SG, San Antonio Spurs
3 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 110.4
Remember how dreadful San Antonio Spurs swingman Manu Ginobili looked in the 2013 NBA Finals? Well, he has had that kind of a preseason.
After recovering from a stress fracture in his right leg, he has made three appearances in the exhibition season. He has averaged 5.7 points and 5.0 turnovers in those games while compiling a grisly .267/.222 shooting slash.
Preseason stats are never easy to trust, but it's hard not to find these numbers a bit concerning when he sounds concerned himself.
"Way behind basketball-wise," Ginobili said of his current state, per ProjectSpurs' Paul Garcia. "I am very insecure with the ball, but I am pain free. ... Sometimes I get a little impatient. I am so far behind, and I want to be useful and help the team out."
Maybe this is all rust, but how high does the 37-year-old's ceiling rise even if it is? This will be his 13th season in the NBA, and he has an additional 180 playoff games on his odometer—44 of which have come over the past two years.
His coach, Gregg Popovich, knows all of these numbers too. He held Ginobili to less than 23 minutes a night last season and could tighten that restriction given Ginobili's struggles and the good depth behind him on the perimeter (Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Marco Belinelli).
Isaiah Thomas, PG, Phoenix Suns
4 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 104.0
Doubting Isaiah Thomas is rarely a wise move. The Sacramento Kings bet against the 5'9" scoring guard each of the past three seasons, and all he did was outperform whichever player they placed in his way.
Still, Thomas' fantasy prospects are a little scary this season, and it really has nothing to do with the pint-sized player himself. It has everything to do with the Suns' ridiculous depth at his natural position and the fact that playing three guys 6'3" and under feels like a change-of-pace option that cannot be deployed very often.
Even if coach Jeff Hornacek keeps two point guards on the floor at most times, Thomas will struggle to see close to the same type of minutes as the others. Eric Bledsoe got a five-year, $70 million contract from the Suns over the summer, and Goran Dragic could see a similar raise when he hits unrestricted free agency next offseason.
If Thomas finds himself a little short on minutes, his fantasy value could really take a dive. He isn't the most efficient shooter (career .447/.360/.857 slash) nor the most effective distributor (career 4.8 assists against 2.1 turnovers), and he offers next to nothing on the glass (career 2.5 rebounds) or the defensive end (career 1.0 steals).
Maybe he'll find a way to defy the odds once again. But it's better to play the percentages and let someone else take that risk while you get someone guaranteed to see a larger role like Jordan Hill (103.5), Tyson Chandler (104.6) or Patrick Beverley (107.0).
Kevin Martin, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
5 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 86.2
Kevin Martin's fantasy value has always come from his ability as a scoring specialist, but it's been a while since his scoring really graded out anywhere near special.
Martin hasn't been a 20-plus-points-per-game scorer since 2010-11. He has shot at least 45 percent from the field just once in his last six seasons. He hasn't been both a 20-point scorer and 45 percent shooter since 2007-08.
It's important to take the right stock of his scoring because he doesn't bring much else to the table. His career per-game marks of 3.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.1 blocks show how little help he offers outside of getting buckets and hitting the long ball.
To an extent, his draft position reflects his statistical limitations. What it doesn't account for, though, is the way his reality has worsened for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
With Kevin Love out of the equation, the Wolves can afford to take a long-term look at their franchise. Just one glance through that lens will highlight the importance of developing rookies Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins, both of whom can and will see time at the shooting guard spot.
Martin needs scoring volume to justify his draft slot, and he figures to fall several decibels short.
Tyreke Evans, SF, New Orleans Pelicans
6 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 84.3
As disastrous as the 2013-14 season was for the New Orleans Pelicans, it may have been Tyreke Evans' best chance to produce in the Big Easy.
After all, Evans rarely had to share touches with Jrue Holiday (48 games missed) or Ryan Anderson (60). Even Anthony Davis (15) and Eric Gordon (18) left plenty of opportunities in front of Evans.
So, what did the former Rookie of the Year do with all of those offensive chances? He saw his playing time (28.2) and scoring average (14.5) dip for the fourth consecutive season. He shot just 43.6 percent from the field, the second-worst rate of his career, and converted only 22.1 of his three-point attempts.
He was a quantity-over-quality contributor, but even the quantity wasn't that great. And with a healthy supporting cast surrounding him—plus a glass-eater and pick-and-roll finisher having joined the fun in Omer Asik—Evans may be at risk of losing the little volume he had.
Evans needs the ball to be effective (his forgettable shooting percentages are easier to stomach when he is dropping dimes on the wing), and touches could come at a premium with what should be one the NBA's best starting fives. At this range, I'd rather get someone in better shape to receive consistent opportunities like Jeff Green (85.9) or someone better equipped to convert the ones he gets like Terrence Jones (82.2).
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets
7 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 52.4
Proceed with caution.
If the fantasy world has learned nothing else about Brook "Buyer Beware" Lopez, that message seems to have had some staying power. More than the big man himself, at least.
Jon Hartzell of NBA.com detailed Lopez's most recent worrisome fall from fantasy grace:
"Brook Lopez was one of the best centers in the league during the first 17 games of last season, averaging 20.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks on 56.3 percent shooting. Then he suffered a fractured metatarsal in his right foot, the same injury that caused him to miss all but five games in 2011-12. Last week, Lopez suffered a 'mild' sprain of that same foot after it was stepped on during a preseason game against the Kings. This injury is only supposed to sideline Lopez for 10-14 days, but it's hard to imagine his ailing foot will be problem-free the whole year after it has caused him to miss time in each of the last three seasons.
"
A 7-footer with foot problems: Where have I heard that one before? Probably from every NBA executive's worst nightmares.
Lopez has an overstuffed scoring skill set, and his career 78.9 free-throw percentage helps make up for what he doesn't bring on the glass. Still, all of that is obviously contingent on him playing, and he has just a total of 22 games to show for two of the past three seasons.
If you want to bet on a big man, pick up some fantasy stock in Derrick Favors' upside (51.2 ADP) or Tim Duncan's chances in his never-ending fight with Father Time (61.4).
Kobe Bryant, SG, Los Angeles Lakers
8 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 26.2
This list probably could have included both Kobe Bryant and Derrick Rose, but the Mamba gets the nod as the riskier superstar comeback for a couple different reasons.
For one, Bryant doesn't have the benefit of time on his side. The 36-year-old has 18 seasons of wear and tear on his body, and it seems to be starting to show.
He suffered both a ruptured Achilles tendon and a fractured lateral tibial plateau in his left knee during 2013. His last meaningful basketball came in the six appearances he made last season, during which he shot 42.5 percent from the field, 18.8 percent from deep and averaged 5.7 turnovers.
Rose, on the other hand, is 10 years younger than Bryant and has played 956 fewer regular-season games. Rose also had the chance to scrape off some rust and test his surgically repaired knees with Team USA at the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup.
There are question marks surrounding both, but the pair have come off the board at nearly the same spot (Rose's ADP is 26.1). If the age difference wasn't enough to steer you toward Rose over Bryant, remember also that the former has reportedly agreed to a minutes limit with Los Angeles Lakers coach Byron Scott, per Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News.
In other words, even if Bryant plays well, he might not have the opportunity to be a top 30 fantasy producer. Conservative owners may choose to pass on both Rose and Bryant—Ty Lawson, Dwight Howard and Nicolas Batum are all excellent choices in the same range—but those who don't mind a gamble would be better off placing their bets on someone other than Bryant.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks
9 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 24.8
The Dallas Mavericks should have made Dirk Nowitzki a very happy man this summer. By surrounding him with the likes of Tyson Chandler, Chandler Parsons and Jameer Nelson, among others, Dallas has done what it can to give Nowitzki another shot at championship bliss.
Fantasy owners of the 36-year-old won't be nearly as excited to see the new help. Not when Dallas' depth likely means fewer minutes and fewer offensive opportunities for the sharpshooting 7-footer.
"I'm not expecting anyone on our team to be a 20-point scorer," Mavericks owner Mark Cuban said, per ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon. "Not Dirk. I don't want him to be a 20-point scorer. Seriously."
Some players lose volume and make tremendous strides in efficiency. But Dirk was nearly a 50/40/90 shooter last season (.497/.398/.899). Any loss in quantity is likely to be just that—the same quality of production, just not as much of it.
It makes sense for the Mavs to try to lighten his load. They have bigger goals in mind. But you won't hear about the Miami Heat taking it easy on Chris Bosh (ADP 19.4) or the Detroit Pistons limiting the exposure of Andre Drummond (24.9).
Don't pay for last season's Dirk when all signs point to that player getting left in the past.
Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers
10 of 10
ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 4.8
If you draft Los Angeles Clippers point guard Chris Paul, you will not be disappointed.
There is an almost eeriness to his stat sheets, each season a near-mirror image of the previous one. Over the past seven years, his assists average has checked in somewhere between 9.1 and 11.6. He hasn't had fewer than 2.1 or more than 2.8 steals during that stretch, and only twice has his scoring average fell outside the range of 18.7 to 22.8.
There's a reason most point guard debates start with which player should come after him.
But fantasy doesn't always reflect reality. In this realm, Paul is one of many to-flight producers at his position, and the gap between him and the rest isn't wide enough to warrant drafting him as early as he's going.
"Point guard is fantastically deep this season," wrote ESPN.com's John Cregan, "and the prospect of using a top-five pick on a player who has missed an average of 16 games per campaign over the last two seasons is a little rich for me."
Paul will turn 30 in May, so while he's still in is prime for now, that window could be closing relatively soon. With so many rising point guards to be had a little later in the draft—Damian Lillard (15.0), Goran Dragic (32.3), Mike Conley (36.3)—it makes a lot of sense to pass on Paul, grab an elite talent at a shallower position and then grab a floor general in the next few rounds.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
