Packers' Randall Cobb Having a Career Season in Contract Year

After locking down Jordy Nelson to a $39 million extension and drafting Davante Adams in the second round of the past draft, the Green Bay Packers have key pieces of their receiving unit set for the future. The current question mark moving forward is Randall Cobb, the 2011 selection who is set to hit free agency next offseason.

In his rookie year, Cobb became the first NFL player born in the 1990s to score a touchdown. Starting his career off nicely, Cobb only improved statistically in his sophomore season, netting a league-leading 2,342 all-purpose yards, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

2013 was a down year for Cobb, not due to performance, but injury. The former Kentucky Wildcat missed over two months with a knee issue that landed him on the injured reserve list. But that didn't stop Cobb from stunning the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field with a go-ahead score in the final minute, vaulting the Packers into the playoffs.

Currently sitting at 5-2, Green Bay isn't in a position to be praying on a miracle for a playoff berth. One of the largest reasons for this is the combination of Nelson and Cobb.

Seven weeks into the season, Cobb ranks second in the league in touchdown receptions by a receiver with eight. The only player with more receiving touchdowns is Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas. Right behind Cobb at fourth, though, is a triad of Nelson, Denver receiver Demaryius Thomas and Dallas Cowboys receiver Terrance Williams.

But Nelson isn't just breathing down Cobb's neck in scoring; he's also leading the league in receiving yardage with 711 yards. From the jump, Nelson's 2014 campaign has showed the football world that not only is he a top target in Green Bay, but that he's absolutely in the discussion for moving into the elite tier of receivers.

Cobb hasn't been able to match Nelson's yardage total for the season but still has done well enough to have eight plays in the air totaling 20 or more yards, which places him sixth for explosive plays in the air in 2014.

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Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb this season: 82 catches, 1,164 yards, 14 TDs. The season is SEVEN weeks old.

— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) October 19, 2014"

With nine games still to go in the season, Cobb has already tied his career high in touchdown receptions. At his current projection, he'll have 18 scores on the year, something only four receivers in NFL history have been able to accomplish.

Against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Cobb had 85 of his 121 receiving yards come after the catch, according to the Packer Report on Twitter. Mike Spofford of Packers.com believes that Cobb may finally be hitting his stride after recovering from his 2013 knee injury.

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Twice Cobb took short passes, got good blocks from teammates and shook tackles for big gains. The first one became a 47-yard burst midway through the second quarter to set up the TD that put the Packers ahead 28-0. The second came early in the third quarter and went for 33 yards, immediately followed by a 21-yard TD pass to rookie Davante Adams for a 35-3 advantage.

“That’s the player that I’ve always been,” Cobb said. “I didn’t feel like earlier in the season I’ve been as dynamic as I’m supposed to be and as I expect myself to be.”

Missing 10 games last season with a broken leg might have had something to do with that. Whether it did or not, Cobb is looking more and more like the pre-injury Cobb.

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If his theory is true and Cobb is going to be as consistently productive as he's been the past several weeks moving forward, one has to begin to question if the Packers are in a position to retain the target in 2015.

Andy Benoit of Sports Illustrated and The MMQB says based on film he's more of a slot receiver than a boundary pass-catcher. Slot receivers don't make nearly the same amount of money as top-tier boundary players.

According to Over The Cap, seven of the top eight highest-valued contract totals by receivers come from outside targets. The one "move" receiver is Percy Harvin, who was traded for a conditional draft choice earlier this week.

If one was to make a comparison of Cobb to a slot receiver who received a large contract, the go-to comparison is in all likelihood Victor Cruz. Even Cruz compared himself to the Packer in the offseason during an event at P.S. 75 Emily Dickinson in Manhattan, via Ebenezer Samuel of the Daily News.

In the summer of 2013, Cruz landed a contract worth a little more than $45 million over five years as a featured slot target. On a per-year basis, that still ranks behind Nelson's nearly $10 million per-year average, which is probably the threshold Cobb's contract won't pass when considering the production of the two receivers.

It's hard to imagine Cobb receiving a larger contract than Nelson, when Nelson just signed an extension, and he's putting together a season as impressive as his 2014 campaign.

While no one is complaining in Green Bay regarding Cobb's production, some must be sweating regarding the future of the receiver. Not only is he slated to hit free agency in 2015, but so is starting cornerback Tramon Williams, slated starting nose tackle B.J. Raji, starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and current starting nose tackle Letroy Guion.

Green Bay would have to pull off an impressive stretch of contracts to re-sign all of those players. ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky has stated that only seven teams have less projected cap space in 2015 than the Packers. Due to the rare situation 2015 brings, it could lead to the Packers allowing the rare young in-house star to leave town.

With a hopeful yet cautious approach, Packer fans should be keeping an eye on the situation. With the idea that Cobb will make somewhere around $7 million a year, like premier slot receiver Cruz, to $10 million a year, like Nelson—Cobb's teammate who he's matching in production—the certainty of being able to retain the pass-catcher isn't something to bank on moving forward.

Unless otherwise noted all stats come from ESPN.com and the Elias Sports Bureau.