NFL Pick Against the Spread Spotlight: New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

There’s the game. And then the gaming behind the game.

Let's go behind the math for Sunday's game in Dallas as the 5-1 Cowboys host the 3-3 New York Giants. On the surface, the majority of the population is only interested in who is going to win the thing. It's a division rivalry with a long history and implications beyond the two teams on the field (mainly a certain squad from Philly).

But when it comes to the spread set by the Vegas oddsmakers, there's an entirely different approach to which side to pick in this game.

The Cowboys are coming off a big win against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks as a nine-point underdog last week and are a six-point favorite over the visiting Giants. In other words, the oddsmakers feel that the Cowboys will beat the Giants by a touchdown.

The ‘Boys are a highly scrutinized team, even more so with their big start to the season and the aforementioned eye-opening victory last week. The Giants are coming off an embarrassing drudging at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles where they also lost their best offensive threat (and dancer) Victor Cruz.

So one might think the spread would have been higher to take advantage of the general public's lack of knowledge as to how the lines are set.

Then again, it is a traditionally competitive divisional matchup, and it’s hard to believe a Tom Coughlin-led squad will lay down and take a beating for a second consecutive week.

But another story unfolds when looking at the game from a statistical perspective. Then it becomes a matter of finding and analyzing the disparity between the lines set by the oddsmakers and the final score predicted by the math.

This is the approach former math professor turned top sports bettor Bill Davis of Big Time Sharps has been utilizing with his algorithm he affectionately (if not modestly) calls the Davis Equation.

Davis would probably point out that Eli Manning and Tony Romo have very similar completion percentages at 65 percent and 68 percent, respectively, and both have 11 touchdown passes. The rushing attacks of the two teams have also been effective: New York's Rashad Jennings is averaging 4.4 yards per carry, while DeMarco Murray averages 4.9 per attempt and is off to a historic start.

Even with many of the numbers between the two squads being equal, there are statistical advantages in Dallas’ favor. The Giants rush for an average of 115.2 yards per game and pass for 214.3 yards per game. The Cowboys, who average 160.3 yards rushing, hold a significant statistical advantage over New York on the ground, while Dallas puts up 238.3 yards passing per game, a minor advantage over Manning and the Giants passing attack.

Considering all of this, the oddsmakers have this one fairly close and are banking on the public taking the Cowboys as a no-brainer. Mathematically, this game should be close with a slight edge to the Cowboys, but still a lot closer than the average Joe would think.

This game could very well land right on the number and end up a push if this line moves by kickoff. And when all is said and done, it should be a fun game to watch, and just as fun to play—both on the field and on the money.

Spread information courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.