Brandon Bolden's Updated Fantasy Outlook Heading into Week 8

Fantasy owners couldn't have been more disappointed with New England Patriots running back Brandon Bolden's output against the New York Jets in Week 7.

The good news is things are only going to get better with a matchup against Chicago on October 26.

It would be hard to be more useless than Bolden was against the Jets. Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston noted late in the Patriots' win that the third-year running back was on the field for one snap:

That one snap did result in a reception for four yards. If you had Bolden playing in a PPR league, he gave you something. For everyone else, though, odds are that you are looking to dump him for a running back as fast as possible.

This would be a huge mistake. You can't sell on a player at his absolute lowest moment. You're just baiting other players in your league to accept the challenge and make you look foolish later in the season.

So why should you stick with Bolden?

Stevan Ridley's injury opens the door for everyone else in New England's backfield to get touches. Bolden is basically a physical carbon copy of his injured teammate. Both are listed at 5'11" and 220 pounds on the team's website and had the same 40-yard dash time (4.66 seconds) at the NFL Scouting Combine.

If you just look at his stats from the game against New York, Bolden comes off badly. It certainly wasn't a performance anyone will remember.

However, there is a story to every game that indicates why things went the way they did.

According to NFL on ESPN, the Jets dominated that game in time of possession:

The strength of New York's defense is on the defensive line, which has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick understands that and relied on Tom Brady's arm to secure a victory. New England ran 53 plays, 37 of which were passes.

With the time of possession skewed so heavily in the Jets' favor, there weren't going to be many opportunities for the Patriots to run the ball with any of their backs.

SI.com's Michael Beller also made a great point about how the Patriots deploy their running backs and why the Jets were a bad matchup for fantasy owners:

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The Patriots are notorious for keeping their opponents, and fantasy owners, guessing about what they’ll do at running back. More likely than not, matchups will drive who gets the most touches among Vereen, Bolden and White. Vereen can be trusted because he’ll always have a role as a receiver. The other two can’t say that, and the Jets have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this year.

"

This brings me to the Week 8 game against Chicago. Since Belichick loves to save running backs for the right matchups, it's hard to find a better one to establish the ground game against than the Bears defense.

Winslow Townson/Getty Images

Again, just looking at the surface doesn't tell you the whole story. Chicago's run defense has been vastly improved from last year. It ranks 10th overall in yards allowed per game (103.7). Factoring in competition, however, the numbers don't look as impressive.

The last three weeks have seen the Bears' run defense stop Green Bay, Atlanta and Carolina, three teams that rank 24th, 20th and 28th in rushing yards per game, respectively.

Against teams with strong running games (Buffalo, San Francisco, New York), they have allowed an average of 144.7 yards.

New England has also attempted the third-most rushes (193) this season. Belichick is going to implement a lot more running plays into the game plan next week, opening the door for Bolden to get more touches than he had in Week 7.

It would be unrealistic to assume Bolden will start getting 15-18 touches per game, but there's no reason for the Patriots not to get him the ball 10-12 times against a soft Chicago defense. He's got the power style that Belichick can use in goal-line situations to score a cheap touchdown.

Judging Bolden by his first game after Ridley's injury would be a mistake. Belichick is a calculating coach who knows when to deploy his weapons, so expect more from the running back next week.

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