Serge Ibaka, Not Russell Westbrook, Will Be Hardest Hit by Kevin Durant's Injury
It's not time for the Oklahoma City Thunder to panic, but nor is it wise to sugarcoat the near future. After having surgery to repair a fractured right foot, reigning MVP Kevin Durant will miss the next six to eight weeks, assuming there are no setbacks.
For a team accustomed to claiming the first or second seed in a hyper-competitive Western Conference, these early games will matter—all the more as opportunities to set a tone for 2014-15, potentially demonstrating the depth and resolve of a would-be contender.
As The Washington Post's Michael Lee put it this month, "And while simply getting into the playoffs may not be a problem for the Thunder, just getting there won't be good enough for a franchise that has had higher aspirations ever since Durant became no worse than the second-best player in the NBA."
Keeping pace in the early going will require a collective effort, yes. But remaining at the top will require especially big things from power forward Serge Ibaka. The five-year veteran comes off a career season in which he averaged 15.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.7 blocks in 32.9 minutes per game.
He may have to do even more in the weeks before Durant's return.
We know Russell Westbrook—who led the league in usage rate last season through his 46 games, per Hollinger Stats—can carry a significant load on the offensive end, both as a dynamic scorer and willing playmaker.
But this isn't a load he can carry alone. What more could he do? He's a top-10 player and perhaps the best sidekick in the game whether Durant's playing or not. It's doubtful there's another level to which he can take his game.
Answers will have to come from elsewhere.
"It's not about me. It's about our team." Westbrook told reporters this month. "I can't win games by myself. I can't do anything by myself. I kind of want to take the attention off me and put it more on the team. Everybody keeps asking what I'm going to do and how I'm going to change. I think it's more about our team and what we can do."
That team effort certainly implies more than just a heavy dose of Ibaka. Another key asset is 24-year-old guard Reggie Jackson, a 2011 first-round draft pick who averaged career highs of 13.1 points and 4.1 assists last season. Third-year veteran Jeremy Lamb also may see some extra action given the minutes now available on the wing.
None of that diminishes Ibaka's importance.
This is his opportunity to establish himself as a legitimate two-way star, a threat whose impact on the offensive end rivals his undisputed defensive pedigree. It's his chance to develop a rhythm and expand a role that might persist even when Durant returns.
"One of the things I'm smart enough to realize is we're not going to replace Kevin's offensive efficiency, his scoring, his playmaking, his defense," head coach Scott Brooks told reporters this month. "But what we can do as a group is get better, so that when he does come back, when he's ready to come back, we can be a better team."
Getting another level out of Ibaka would help.
The 25-year-old is already quite good, and the Thunder demonstrably missed him during the first two games of last season's conference finals against the San Antonio Spurs—losing the two contests by a combined 52 points.
Ibaka's mobility and athleticism make him a formidable interior defender, and his improved mid-range game gives him the kind of offensive versatility he lacked early in his career.
So there's plenty to like about how far Ibaka has come since being selected with the 24th overall draft pick in 2008.
But when considering his physical and mental tools, one continues to wonder just how high his upside is.
Might he be an even more polished scorer on a team that really needed the points? Would we see more evidence of range with a club that didn't get most of its three-pointers from the prolific likes of Durant and Westbrook?
A glance at his 2013-14 shot chart sheds some light on how he's been used thus far.
Ibaka insisted that he's "already a stretch four" in a recent exchange with media, noting that he simply picks and chooses his spots. He's made 43 of his 117 three-point attempts over the last two seasons, an impressive 36.8 percent success rate.
With more opportunities, Ibaka could potentially capitalize on that range more often and further improve Oklahoma City's spacing.
Even if he's not the next Dirk Nowitzki, the mere threat of outside production can keep defenders honest and open some lanes.
It's the next step for a guy who's already mastered the fundamental expectations of a good power forward. He sets strong screens. He rolls hard to the basket. He pops out for jumpers. Now's the time to expand that range and develop a comfort level from different spots on the floor.
Ibaka continued to make strides last season, raising his per-game scoring average nearly two full points over its 2012-13 mark. Westbrook's absence from 36 games (while recovering from knee injury) created room for Ibaka to get his foot in the door and adopt a more prominent role.
Hopefully that experience will carry over to the challenge that awaits.
A challenge that will require Ibaka to step up without interrupting the improved synergy Brooks is looking to inculcate in the near term.
As NBCSports.com's Kurt Helin observed this month, "The Thunder have shown flashes of better ball movement in the preseason—the kind of plays they need to make (whether Durant is on the floor or not) to create better, easier looks for themselves all season and heading into the playoffs."
The good news is Ibaka won't get in the way, even if he's taking an extra couple of shots every night. He doesn't need the ball in his hands constantly, and he's at his best spotting up and exploiting opportunities created by others—namely Westbrook and Jackson.
This will still be a team effort, particularly if life without Durant goes reasonably well. It will still be a survival mode characterized as much by defensive intensity as any offensive adjustments.
But it's also a stretch in which OKC will need leadership. Without Durant's 30-plus points per game preserving a healthy margin for error, the Thunder need someone else to go above and beyond.
It wouldn't be the first time Ibaka's done just that.
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