How Georgia Can Beat Arkansas Without Todd Gurley

The plan for Georgia this Saturday against Arkansas is the same as it was a week ago: Win without star running back Todd Gurley. 

For the second straight week, Chip Towers of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Gurley is not traveling with the team as the university investigates whether he provided his autograph for money, a violation of NCAA rules.  

On Thursday, the NCAA tweeted that it is still awaiting the school's request for reinstatement. 

How long it takes for the matter to be resolved remains to be seen, but Towers writes that the process rests firmly on Georgia and its findings: 

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That the NCAA has not received the results of UGA’s investigation is key because it means its committee on eligibility cannot deliberate the findings and issue a ruling. Persons familiar with the process have told the AJC it takes at least 24 hours to turn around an eligibility case and the committee does not meet on weekends.

Regardless, sources familiar with the investigation indicate that Gurley wouldn’t be cleared to play even if the committee had received the report by now. According to NCAA statutes, a student-athlete who has received more than $400 in improper benefits is subject to a suspension of at least 20 percent of competition dates. Gurley’s alleged compensation exceeds that amount, sources have told the AJC.

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As it relates to Saturday's game against Arkansas in Little Rock, Gurley's absence was likely expected. The Bulldogs already handled one opponent without Gurley, shutting out Missouri, 34-0. How can head coach Mark Richt win another game without his workhorse running back?

Give it to Nick Chubb (again and again)

Good thing Georgia has running backs for days.

Gurley was the cornerstone of the Bulldogs offense, touching the ball an average of 25 times per game this season against opponents not named Troy. Still, his 22 carries a game didn't hold a candle to the 38 carries freshman running back Nick Chubb had against Missouri in Week 7. In all, Chubb touched the ball 42 times. 

At 5'10" and 230 pounds, Chubb is built to handle that kind of punishment. 

Whether Chubb replicates those numbers against Arkansas remains to be seen, but the theme is that Chubb has to run the (dang) ball. Against Missouri, the Bulldogs handed off to Chubb 18 times on first down plays and later converted most of its third downs in those instances. 

In other words, Georgia established the tone by getting Chubb the ball early with generally favorable results. He's the primary back now that Gurley is out, so expect Chubb to be the tone-setter again. 

The knock on Bulldogs offensive coordinator Mike Bobo is that he tries to get too cute when he doesn't need to be. Against Missouri, though, Georgia made no secret about what it was going to do. The Tigers were ready, they just couldn't stop it. 

Arkansas has been giving up four yards per rush on the season, a number Georgia will take any day of the week. However, the Razorbacks have done a better job against the run as of late. From giving up 6.3 yards per carry against Auburn in Week 1 to giving up one-third of that against Alabama last week, this looks like a defense that's coming together. 

Georgia could test that hypothesis with a one-two punch of Chubb and Brendan Douglas. Keith Marshall could return as well, according to Richt (via Seth Emerson, The Telegraph)

"If Keith's not ready this week I feel like he'd be ready for Florida," Richt said. "So I feel like we're getting some guys back."

What made Georgia's ground attack so formidable wasn't just Gurley; it was Gurley plus all of the other running backs behind him. The depth of this position will continue to be tested, but it's nevertheless a key group if Georgia's going to win another road game. 

Defense: Make Brandon Allen Win

The glaring number on the Georgia-Missouri stat line are the five turnovers committed by the Tigers. Undeniably, it's tough, if not impossible, to win a game when you're minus five in the turnover margin.

However, it's also true that Georgia managed just three points off of two Maty Mauk interceptions in the first quarter. It's not like Missouri had to claw its way back into the game right from the start. 

Rather, an overall inability to move the ball hurt Missouri. In the six possessions Missouri had that didn't end in a turnover, the Tigers went three-and-out four times. Georgia's defense hardly budged. 

Keeping Arkansas in obvious passing situations on third downs, not the turnovers, is what Georgia has to rely on this Saturday. A team isn't going to win the turnover margin 5-0 every week. 

Georgia has one of the best rushing defenses in the country. The Bulldogs front seven vs. the Razorbacks running attack of Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams is undoubtedly the matchup to watch. 

Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen has been fairly efficient on the year, throwing for a touch under 1,000 yards, 10 touchdowns and just two picks. Then again, Arkansas doesn't rely on Allen. In six games, the Razorbacks have handed off to Collins or Williams 161 times on first and second downs, with the two basically splitting those carries. 

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

The results have been great for Bret Bielema's offense; Arkansas gets well over five yards per carry in those situations. 

So it's no surprise that Allen is best passing the ball on first down (63.9 completion percentage, six touchdowns) when play action is most effective. Tight ends AJ Derby and Hunter Henry are popular targets, combining for 23 catches and four touchdowns. 

Conversely, asking Allen to thrown on third down, especially anything longer than 3rd-and-3, hasn't worked out well. 

Stopping Collins and Williams on a consistent basis is difficult and probably not something Georgia will do every single time. The important thing, though, is that the Bulldogs do it enough to put more pressure on Allen. 

The styles of Arkansas and Georgia are somewhat similar in that they're at their best when controlling the line of scrimmage relative to the running game. Georgia's offense has already shown it can do that without Gurley in the lineup. The Razorbacks are a physical team, though.

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.