Pros and Cons of Boston Celtics Pairing Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger
The time has come for a couple of the Boston Celtics' prized young prospects to adopt more veteran responsibilities—namely as front-line fixtures in the starting lineup.
Jared Sullinger only started 44 games a season ago, and Kelly Olynyk started just nine.
That's about to change.
According to The Boston Globe's Gary Washburn, "While Olynyk, a second-year player from Gonzaga, is a classic 'stretch 4' with perimeter skills, [head coach Brad ]Stevens said he is Boston's best option at center."
In his recent column, Washburn adds that, "Sullinger is expected to start at power forward with Jeff Green at small forward and Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo in the backcourt."
"I think it would be tough to unseat [Olynyk] right now," Stevens recently told The Boston Globe. "With that being said, we still have two weeks but that's where I am right now. The good news about that and the part that's kind of up in the air is Kelly can play the 4 and the 5, so who knows what's going to happen?"
Nine-year veteran Brandon Bass started 73 games last season, and departed big man Kris Humphries started another 30. Now seems like an obvious time to see what the next generation of bigs can do in Boston—particularly what they can do together.
With Stevens seriously entertaining the option, it's worth considering the costs and benefits of starting Sullinger and Olynyk on a full-time basis.
The Good
Sullinger and Olynyk represent the future. The sooner Stevens puts them in positions to be successful, the sooner they'll usher in the next phase of general manager Danny Ainge's rebuilding process.
That phase probably doesn't include an imminent postseason appearance, but patience remains in order after a 25-win season.
In the short term, the two bigs will space the floor with their shooting abilities, providing Rondo with targets when he's in facilitation mode—which is most of the time.
With Olynyk making 35.1 percent of his three-point attempts last season (and Sullinger achieving a lesser mark at 26.9 percent), the big idea is to keep the floor spread with spot-up options.
"The other factor in this is our guards are solid, capable shooters but it's not like that's their reputation," Stevens recently explained to reporters, per Washburn. "It's not like a guy that runs off screens and shoots 45 percent from 3. So having more guys that space the floor in the frontcourt is going to be important. As a result, we'll be at times smaller."
This offense needs some life.
The Celtics only scored 99.7 points per 100 possessions last season, giving them an offensive efficiency that ranked 27th league-wide, according to Hollinger Stats. The club's 51.7 true shooting percentage ranked 28th.
Those struggles are explained in part by the fact Rondo only played in 30 games after recovering from an ACL injury.
But Boston's especially stagnant offense suggests more systemic problems. Maybe a new starting five will help.
"Me and Sully [Jared Sullinger] and even BB [Brandon Bass] are sometimes outside, spotting up and drawing defenses out to open the lane for guards penetrating the ball," Olynyk told the Boston Herald's Steve Bulpett.
Olynyk should be especially effective in that role given his perimeter success as a rookie.
"With his size, [Olynyk] has the ability to stretch defenses out, being able to shoot all the way to the three," teammate Joel Anthony told reporters this month, via thestar.com's Josh Rubin. "But he can also handle the ball very well. He's very shifty and crafty."
And while Sullinger wasn't especially efficient in his sophomore campaign, he did attempt 2.8 three-pointers per game. The hope remains that he blossoms into a poor man's Kevin Love.
Both Sullinger and Olynyk rebound the ball well. Sullinger tallied 8.1 boards in 27.6 minutes per game last season, while Olynyk collected 5.2 in 20 minutes per game. They're well-suited to creating the kind of inside-out presence Stevens imagines.
Just don't expect them to become saviors in the process.
The Bad
The Celtics aren't going to scare anyone defensively with this lineup.
Washburn noted that it was Sullinger who guarded Toronto Raptors big man Jonas Valanciunas in one preseason game. One way or another, Boston will find itself playing defense that's either undersized (Sullinger) or overmatched physically (Olynyk).
For now, the team's trying to put a positive spin on it, accentuating those offensive possibilities.
"He's not necessarily a traditional center from a skill-set standpoint," Stevens admitted to media this month, per Rubin. "He's not going to weigh more than most centers. But he is a matchup problem for most bigs, because he can play on the block but he's really good facing the basket."
The Celtics ranked 20th in defensive efficiency last season, giving up 105.2 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Stats. Neither Sullinger nor Olynyk will provide the kind of rim protection needed to turn that around.
And with Tyler Zeller, Joel Anthony and Vitor Faverani the only other bigs (besides Bass) likely to see minutes, this is a problem that goes way beyond Sullinger and Olynyk.
The other drawback to starting these two is that it means one less scoring threat coming off the bench.
The Celtics' bench averaged 30.1 points per game last season, the 17th-best mark in the league. That's not terrible, but remember Sullinger, Olynyk and Humphries came off the bench for quite a few games last season. They provided the second unit with options and stability it may no longer have under the proposed arrangement.
Depth and defense—the kind of things separating the Celtics from the playoff heights to which they aspire.
The kind of problems Sullinger and Olynyk won't solve.
The Ugly Truth
No lineup adjustment or strategic innovation will change Boston's immediate fate. This young roster is a long way from contending and perhaps another year or two away from even thinking about the playoffs.
There will be bumps along the way for Sullinger and Olynyk—and an obvious learning curve for rookies Marcus Smart and James Young. Stevens and his staff are choosing between the lesser of evils, preferably deploying a lineup that builds for the future while stopping the bleeding in the interim.
From that perspective, the Celtics don't have much choice.
Zeller was a nice young pickup this summer, but Sullinger and Olynyk are the closest things to post players with star potential. Even if they continue to look like role players in the near-term, their development is important to the organization's broader plans.
Why wait to get the ball rolling?
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