NBA Preseason Performances That Won't Carry into Regular Season
Exhibition NBA games aren't empty, pointless exercises in nothing. They matter.
But they can be misleading.
Though collective preseason outcomes can be pseudo-previews for the regular season—as we've seen previously—they aren't determinate harbingers of everything. Preseason is more of a soft, malleable guideline. There are performances that prove legitimate, and others that end up being outliers.
Unmasking those preseason anomalies is our mission. You provide the open yet sensible mind, yours truly will bring the skepticism (and the just-for-show night vision goggles).
Focus will lie everywhere, for doubt and suspicion do not discriminate. The end objective is to pinpoint and identify which teams and players are faring too well or too poorly for their exhibition standards to survive the regular season.
Only the most noteworthy abnormalities will receive consideration. If you don't already know that Mitch McGary (now injured) and Jeremy Lamb aren't going to combine for 30 shot attempts per game, you're beyond saving.
Instead, zero in on the more prominent mysteries.
Will the Los Angeles Clippers keep losing? Can the Utah Jazz continue not stinking? Is James Ennis really a 27-year-old Ray Allen in disguise?
To the question-quelling machine!
C.J. McCollum's Call to Arms
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There's every reason to believe that a healthy C.J. McCollum will see more playing time this year. As for him actually becoming a key, productive part of the rotation, that's a different story.
As in fairy tale.
McCollum has performed well through three preseason contests. He's been hot and cold with his shooting overall, but he's averaging 12.7 points and 1.3 steals on 50 percent shooting from deep.
Carrying that stat line into the regular season will be difficult, nigh impossible. That's mostly because 20-plus minutes will be hard to find for him every night.
Coach Terry Stotts' rotations don't stretch very deep. All five of the Portland Trail Blazers' starters logged more than 30 minutes per game last year, and only one reserve (Mo Williams) cracked 20 ticks.
Even if the Blazers decide to use their second unit more freely—their bench ranked last in points per game last year, per HoopStats.com—McCollum finds himself competing for backcourt playing time against Steve Blake and Will Barton. The minutes just won't be there for him to regularly make substantial contributions.
The Lakers' Anti-Three Revolution
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Viva la two-pointers!
For now.
First-year Los Angeles Lakers head coach Byron Scott turned some heads and smashed some dreams upon revealing his offensive game plan.
"I like the fact that we only shot 10 threes," he said after the team's preseason opener, per the Los Angeles Times' Eric Pincus. "If we shoot between 10 and 15, I think that's a good mixture of getting to that basket and shooting threes."
Um, no. That's actually not good balance. Only the Memphis Grizzlies attempted fewer than 15 treys per game last year, and they ranked 14th in offensive efficiency. Teams like the Grizzlies can afford to field middling and below-average offenses if they have elite defenses. The Lakers do not possess such luxuries.
It's scary, then, to see them heeding Scott's words. They've attempted just 24 triples through three preseason games, hitting only six. In their most recent 116-75 loss to the Golden State Warriors, they hoisted only three, missing them all. Not one team jacked up fewer than five three-pointers in a single game last year. This is a whole new brand of space-sapping the Lakers are embracing.
Thankfully it won't continue. It can't.
Part of Scott's anti-three revolution stems from Los Angeles' dearth of shooters. But the Lakers will have to conform at some point. Teams are shooting more threes to stretch defenses, open the very paths to the basket that Scott cherishes and because it makes statistical sense, as Grantland's Zach Lowe reinforced last December.
Surviving on the Lakers' current offensive model isn't possible. The regular season will force them to shift gears, even if it means watching Nick Young clang threes off the rim at unusually high volumes upon his return.
James Ennis' Fiery Explosion
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Watching Ennis tear up the preseason has been fun, and his performance is even easier to appreciate when acknowledging it isn't sustainable.
To this point, four preseason contests have acted as an extension of Ennis' time in Australia last year, and his summer league showing this past offseason. He's averaging 14.5 points, five rebounds and two assists per game while shooting 52.9 percent from the floor, including 45.5 percent from long range.
Most of the time, Ennis has looked like a dominant shooter—especially off screens—aggressive rebounder and active defender. Less frequently, though still impressively, he's looked like a second playmaker.
“Growing up, everybody used to tell me to be more aggressive,” Ennis said, via Heat.com's Couper Moorhead. “I was a pass-first—if I see a guy open that’s where I’m throwing it—that’s just the kind of player that I am. I like watching point guards pass the ball and I try to imitate that.”
Additional playmaking is something the Miami Heat need following LeBron James' departure. Two of their actual point guards—Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers—aren't distributors, and Dwyane Wade's knees creak too loudly for him to pilot the offense every night.
But Ennis is a rookie, playing on a postseason hopeful. Chances of him receiving significant playing time are slim. The regular season is also a different animal.
If he comes close to earning the 23.2 minutes he's playing now, his offensive production isn't going to carry over as seamlessly. He won't be facing fringe roster players or defenses that, for the most part, care very little.
View his preseason dominance as a pleasant surprise and distant-future boon, nothing more.
The Clippers' Funky Smell
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Sweat through your custom-made t-shirts of Steve Ballmer's excited face no more, Clippers fans. Your team is going to be fine, despite its winless start to the preseason.
Just about everything that isn't Blake Griffin's nifty new jump shot has been blah. Two of the Clippers' three losses have come by at least 13 points. Their defense has been awful. Chris Paul's shooting has been frighteningly bad (39.5 percent overall, 18.2 percent from deep). The small forward position looks cloudy. Most of the projected bench players seem unaware sitting isn't a profession.
Put simply, the Clippers haven't looked like the team NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper says they are:
"The bulk of the starting lineup and some of the key reserves have been together three seasons, they're off the transition of the first year with the new coach and the ownership issue has been resolved in very positive fashion, so they're out of excuses. Paul, All-Star power forward Blake Griffin, reigning Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford, championship coach Doc Rivers and a roster so experienced that age may soon become a concern -- everyone is on the clock now.
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And yet there's no cause for alarm or panic. The Clippers made some good additions over the offseason, still figure to boast a top-flight offense and have two superstars in Paul and Griffin who cannot be harshly judged during games that don't count against meaningful win totals.
With Kevin Durant going down for the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets losing valuable rotation players amid offseason confusion, the Clippers have a real chance to climb up the Western Conference ladder, regardless of what their preseason record says.
"I have one announcement," head coach Doc Rivers declared, per the Los Angeles Times' Ben Bolch. "We're probably not going to win the preseason championship."
Sounds like something Gregg Popovich would have said of his San Antonio Spurs last year, when they were 3-4 during preseason play. They went on to win 62 regular-season contests and a real-life championship.
Otto Porter's Rise
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Rookie disappointment didn't follow Otto Porter into the summer league, and it hasn't been lurking anywhere near his preseason efforts.
Over the Washington Wizards' last four games, Porter is averaging 14.5 points and 5.3 rebounds on 59.4 percent shooting. He's been deadly from three (57.1 percent) and has looked impregnable on the defensive end.
Bradley Beal's prolonged absence also ensures his playing time won't significantly drop from the 25.7 minutes per game he's getting now. Some, like Bullets Forever's Umair Khan, even see him picking up much of the slack Beal's absence leaves behind:
"Porter may come out of all this the big winner. There was always a real possibility that Beal's workload as a pick and roll player would lessen with Pierce coming in, and would thus be able to do more off-ball. This is what Porter can replicate better than anyone else on the roster. He won't break the offense, and he'd instantly profit from having Wall set him up for clean looks. If the coaching staff truly believes the two wing positions are interchangeable, then Porter should get the nod to start on opening night.
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This all sounds fine and dandy...in theory.
Porter should basically be considered a rookie for half of 2014-15. Injuries limited him to 37 games last season, and he rarely played. When he did play, he wasn't setting the world on fire. It's going to take time for him to adjust to the regular-season grind and the heightened competition it brings—especially if he's starting.
Scoring opportunities also won't come as easy without Beal on the floor. The Wizards will really need Paul Pierce, Nene and Marcin Gortat to establish themselves as lethal point-pilers if Porter is to receive open looks galore. Asking him to create his own shots this early in the process is only a recipe for disappointment.
So, too, is expecting his preseason production to follow him onto a bigger stage.
Those Jazzed Up Jazz
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Four NBA teams have yet to lose an exhibition game: The Cleveland Cavaliers (duh), Golden State Warriors (kind of duh), Brooklyn Nets (good for them) and...Utah Jazz (?!?!?).
No squad will win out during the regular season. That's not why we're here. But the other three undefeated contingents project as Goliaths (Cavaliers, Warriors) or a playoff team (Nets). The Jazz, meanwhile, figure to spend all of next season evaluating inexperienced talent and studying the anatomy and science behind pingpong balls.
Remove your squirrelly figures from that hater button. This isn't the equivalent of pouring spoiled milk all over Utah's preseason parade.
Alec Burks has been good. Trey Burke is playing like a veteran. The Jazz's three-point shooting has been fantastic (26-of-58). Gordon Hayward has regained his efficiency swagger (46.7 percent shooting). Rudy Gobert looks and plays like the byproduct of Gumby following Paul Bunyan's workout regime.
There is, without question, plenty to like.
But the Jazz are fresh off a 25-win campaign in which they tallied three straight victories once. Knowing they're members of the brutal Western Conference, it's fiercely irresponsible to think their preseason streak somehow portends a regular-season uprising.
Tone down the surprise factor for this team. Improvement may be on the horizon. A sudden climb to mediocrity and 35-plus wins is not.
Pau Gasol's Backwards Performance
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Pau Gasol's preseason has been weird. There is no other word for it.
Except uneven. And backwards.
Offensively, Gasol has been forgettable. He has one 20-point outing to his name, but he's averaging 10.5 points on 38.2 percent shooting in 26.4 minutes. The good news is Mike D'Antoni no longer whispers advice in his ear, so he's attempted exactly zero three-pointers.
On the other end of the floor, Gasol has been good. Strike that, really good. He's crashing the boards hard and blocking shots in volume (three per game). The Chicago Bulls' defensive system is built to hide multiple weak links, but Gasol isn't being stashed anywhere. Rather, he's at the forefront of their defensive fight.
Bank on this continuing for roughly two more seconds.
The Bulls brought Gasol in to score and serve as a secondary playmaker. That he's been active on the defensive end is promising, yet he's no volume shot-blocker. Not at 34, and not when he's sending back 1.6 shots per game for his career.
His primary impact will migrate back to the offensive end at some point. Learning a new offensive system has hindered his efficiency and overall involvement, but he's an offense-oriented big. He'll get it.
Blocks and defensive accomplishments will diminish in number. Points and passes are going to come.
Something of an offense-defense flip-flop awaits him during the regular season.
Steven Adams' Dismantling of Everything and Everyone
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Steven Adams has been godly during the preseason. Opposing defenses and offenses haven't stood a chance, and his two-sided accolades should (hopefully) bury Kendrick Perkins on the depth chart for good.
Be mindful of reading too much into Adams' performance, though. Per-game averages of 18.7 points, six rebounds, two steals and two blocks are astounding, but that's part of the problem. There's been too much improvement. He's not going to make that kind of leap right away.
Oklahoma City's offense isn't designed for centers like Adams to receive ample touches. Open shots also won't come as easy with Durant on the sidelines, so it's unlikely his current offensive role remains intact entering the regular season.
Predicting Adams' role in general for the upcoming campaign is difficult.
"Steven Adams, on the other hand, has had 'future starter' written all over him for what seems like some time now, even though he's just entering his second season as a pro," wrote Bleacher Report's Josh Martin. "That'll happen when the guy ahead of him (Kendrick Perkins) on the Oklahoma City Thunder's depth chart is both a shell of his former self and the owner of an expiring contract."
Starting Adams over Perkins should be a given at this point, but actual playing time is different. Is Scott Brooks prepared to give him more than 14.8 minutes per night? Can he realistically log double that amount and maintain his get-under-your-skin edge all year?
There's a rush to to judge—and idealize—Adams' skill set and improvement because of who he should be replacing. That, though, isn't enough for us to make his preseason preeminence a regular-season standard.
Preseason stats are from RealGM.com. All regular-season stats come from Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
