Fantasy Basketball 2014: Early-Round Rankings and Mock Draft Analysis
Reality often cruelly interferes with fantasy sports, in this case crafting a difficult dilemma in the early rounds of 2014 fantasy basketball drafts.
An injury to one of the game's premier superstars forces drafters to revisit their rankings before the big day. This is why it's best to hold any fantasy draft as close to the season opener as possible. Anyone who already held theirs and picked first or second is now reeling before any games have begun.
After updating the preseason rankings, I'll run through a mock draft I did through FantasyPros' Draft Wizard. The simulator creates a draft against automated teams using expert rankings and average draft position (ADP) info.
Stop messing with your fantasy football lineup for a minute to dive into some basketball preparation.
Rankings
| 1 | LeBron James | SF/PF |
| 2 | Anthony Davis | PF/C |
| 3 | Stephen Curry | PG/SG |
| 4 | James Harden | SG/SF |
| 5 | Chris Paul | PG |
| 6 | Russell Westbrook | PG |
| 7 | Kevin Love | PF/C |
| 8 | DeMarcus Cousins | PF/C |
| 9 | John Wall | PG |
| 10 | LaMarcus Aldridge | PF/C |
| 11 | Carmelo Anthony | SF/PF |
| 12 | Serge Ibaka | PF/C |
| 13 | Kyrie Irving | PG/SG |
| 14 | Damian Lillard | PG |
| 15 | Blake Griffin | PF |
| 16 | Al Jefferson | PF/C |
| 17 | Dirk Nowitzki | PF/C |
| 18 | Kevin Durant | SF/PF |
| 19 | Kyle Lowry | PG |
| 20 | Kawhi Leonard | SG/SF |
| 21 | Chris Bosh | PF/C |
| 22 | Goran Dragic | PG/SG |
| 23 | Nicolas Batum | SG/SF |
| 24 | Joakim Noah | PF/C |
| 25 | Al Horford | PF/C |
A rare certainty was tossed into array with news of Kevin Durant needing to miss six to eight weeks with a foot fracture. With the superstar slated to miss November, he loses No. 1 billing to LeBron James, the now-consensus choice for the top spot.
But just how far should Durant fall? When healthy, drafters are getting a guy who averaged a league-high 32.0 points per game with incredible shooting percentages across the board. He can toss in a steal and block per game just for fun, and he even posted a career-high 5.5 assists per game last season.
How far should he fall? Tom Carpenter argued on ESPN.com that the forward remains a first-round option, even a No. 1 choice in head-to-head formats, where he'll be back for playoff action.
"I would be inclined to pull the trigger on him in the first round anyway. The safe play would be toward the end of the first round, but I will be giving him serious consideration as soon as Curry, Davis and James are off the board, depending on how deep my league is.
However, Durant is so prolific in head-to-head leagues, where early-season output matters little, that I will still take him with the No. 1 overall pick, so long as that six- to eight-week time frame appears realistic.
"
Meanwhile, ESPN colleague Brian McKitish has plummeted him down all the way to No. 48 in his rankings. Both of those claims are too extreme, so let's find some middle ground by cementing him into the second round.
Last year, Durant decimated the league in Russell Westbrook's absence. This time around, the electric point guard has the same chance to own the spotlight in Oklahoma City. Yet, he insisted to ESPN.com's Royce Young that the Thunder won't turn into a one-man show in Durant's absence.
"It's not about me. It's about our team. I can't win games by myself. I can't do anything by myself. I kind of want to take the attention off me and put it more on the team. Everybody keeps asking what I'm going to do and how I'm going to change. I think it's more about our team and what we can do.
"
Right, but Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving were the only other point guards to average more field-goal attempts per game than Westbrook's 17.2. ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh dug up Westbrook's numbers with Durant off the court. It shouldn't come as a surprise that his volume went way up, with his efficiency taking a hit.
With or without Durant, Westbrook delivers a fuller stat sheet than any other point guard. Originally slotted at No. 10, he's upgraded to No. 6 in light of recent developments.
Mock Draft
This is a 12-team mock draft I conducted with standard rotisserie scoring and starting spots of point guard, shooting guard, guard, small forward, power forward, forward, two centers and two utility players. I randomly drew pick No. 2, not an ideal assignment given Durant's injury. Yet I immediately knew who I'd grab.
| 1/2 | Anthony Davis, NO | PF/C |
| 2/23 | Chris Bosh, MIA | PF/C |
| 3/26 | Ty Lawson, DEN | PG |
| 4/47 | Gordon Hayward, UTA | SG/SF |
| 5/50 | Derrick Favors, UTA | PF/C |
| 6/71 | Jabari Parker, MIL | SF |
| 7/74 | Victor Oladipo, ORL | PG/SG |
| 8/95 | Brandon Jennings, DET | PG |
| 9/98 | Enes Kanter, UTA | C |
| 10/119 | Danilo Gallinari, DEN | SF |
| 11/122 | Elfrid Payton, ORL | PG |
| 12/143 | Ersan Ilyasova, MIL | SF/PF |
| 13/146 | Draymond Green, GS | SF |
| 14/167 | Steven Adams, OKC | C |
Anthony Davis is a phenomenal building block for a fantasy squad. In addition to averaging 10.0 boards and a league-best 2.8 blocks per contest during his sophomore season, he posted 20.8 points per night while shooting 51.9 percent from the floor. He's also not a liability from the foul line like other big men. (Looking at you, Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond.)
Oh yeah, he's 21 years old and getting better. He displayed some matured post moves during the FIBA World Cup, which should terrify his opponents and delight his fantasy owners.
I stuck with big men and grabbed Chris Bosh, who is no longer the Miami Heat's third wheel. Remember, he routinely scored 22-24 points per game before joining forces with James and Dwyane Wade, and he posts pristine percentages.
While the NBA is enjoying a point-guard renaissance, the elite ones will fly off the board. It's still imperative to grab a good floor general early, especially one who can provide assists and steals. Ty Lawson fits that bill, but it's a matter of staying healthy for a full season.
It came as a surprise to see a pair of hyped rookies fall into my lap. Jabari Parker was frequently labeled this year's most pro-ready prospect, and he joins a Milwaukee Bucks squad in need of a prime scorer. The Duke stud will make an immediate impact playing with the big boys.
Chances are you won't be able to snag Elfrid Payton that late in a real draft. The explosive point guard rocketed up NBA draft boards due to his stellar athleticism and defense, and he's well on his way to enjoying the same rise in fantasy circles. He could receive prominent minutes from the get-go, making the Orlando Magic newcomer a sensational source of steals with plus rebounding as well.
Don't be surprised if Payton is this year's Michael Carter-Williams.
In the last rounds, you're just throwing something on the wall and hoping it sticks. If Danilo Gallinari recovers from an ACL tear, I'm stealing a three-point guru who can average 15 points, five rebounds and a steal. He shined during his first game since April 2013.
The Golden State Warriors flourished with Draymond Green on the court, so he can receive more minutes and do a little of everything. If the Thunder finally realize Kendrick Perkins stinks, Steven Adams will at least become a great source of rebounds and blocks.
FantasyPros' projections don't care much for my team, forecasting an eighth-place finish. The starters, however, are expected to deliver the fourth-most points. The predicted winner, "Occupy John Wall Street," took an extreme little/big approach with three guards (Westbrook, Irving, Monta Ellis) and three centers (Marc Gasol, Nikola Pekovic, Jonas Valanciunas) in the opening six rounds.
The expert rankings certainly favor centers more than most default ranks, but big men who can efficiently score, rebound and block shots are a valuable fantasy commodity.
Like any fantasy team, it just needs a few breaks and breakouts along the way to have a fighting chance.
