The 8 Biggest Decisions the Oakland A's Have to Make This Offseason
Trades, upgrades, platoons, starters, personnel—it's decisions, decisions, decisions for the Oakland A's this offseason.
The team has one or two—or eight—to make in what will certainly be a crucial offseason. Answers to a few key questions will shape the direction the organization takes both long term and short term.
And once the most important decision is made, the rest of the dominoes can fall.
This list is in ascending order from most important to least important.
1. Fire Sale or Hold Pat?
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In my "State of the Union" address, I touched on this question a bit already. But it all starts here.
The A's can restock their organization by trading marquee players for prospects, or they can continue to add players in hopes of finding the key ingredients for a major playoff push. Lastly, they can go with a strategy somewhere in the middle.
It's a question really only general manager Billy Beane can answer.
Until he decides—or pulls the first move to show the world his intentions—no other question can be looked at. This is the first domino.
Once Beane decides to trade—one guy, two guys, or more—the question becomes...
2. Make a Superstar Expendable?
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Said another way, who is worth trading? Who has value? Even if Beane wishes to keep the team mostly intact, is there anyone that could still be moved?
Melissa Lockard of OaklandClubhouse.com tweeted that it would be foolish to trade Josh Donaldson. In the thread that follows, Lockard argues that the A's have the ability to give Donaldson an extension, he's worth it, and Jeff Samardzija is the smarter trade to make.
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe said the Red Sox would be interested in Samardzija (h/t MLBTradeRumors).
There isn't much chatter on any other players.
Teams typically need quality pitching. Scott Kazmir is a quality pitcher. Teams could certainly call about Kazmir, but Samardzija still has more value.
Teams may also call about Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp, Stephen Vogt and John Jaso. For all five, Beane should think long and hard about it.
3. Re-Sign Jed Lowrie or Not?
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I also wrote in depth on Jed Lowrie in last week's article. But let's break down the pros and cons of signing him once more.
Pro: Lowrie Fills a Need
The A's need a shortstop. If not Lowrie, they need someone. Without Lowrie, you're looking at Andy Parrino, an even lesser-known minor leaguer or a prospect like Daniel Robertson who isn't ready.
Signing Lowrie to a one- or two-year deal fills a temporary need until another guy is acquired or signed or a prospect becomes ready.
Pro: The A's Could Get Lowrie Cheap
Lowrie should be a cheaper option compared to others on the shortstop free-agent market.
He hit .249, down from a batting average of .290 in 2013. He spent some time on the disabled list due to a fractured finger and missed a total of 26 games (although a finger issue shouldn't work against him in the long run). He also turns 31 in April 2015.
Working in Oakland's favor, Lowrie went 0-for-5 in the 2014 postseason.
Additionally, he was no defensive wizard this season. He committed 16 errors at shortstop. According to Baseball-reference.com, his defensive runs saved compared to average was minus-10. His defensive wins above replacement (DWAR) is in the negative, and his range factor is lower than average, too.
Con: His 2014 Stats
See those stats listed above? If those carry over into 2015, the A's will not be better off at shortstop. Lowrie would be a stopgap, sure, but he is a guy who will get all of one win extra for the A's over a replacement.
Con: Sign Lowrie, Miss an Opportunity for Better
Bleacher Report's Karl Buscheck lists Lowrie as the third-best option of available shortstops. Signing Lowrie means the A's miss out or don't even try to sign Asdrubal Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez.
Stephen Drew and Mike Aviles are also available.
Con: Fewer Available Options May Drive Lowrie's Price Tag Up
I said above the A's might be able to get Lowrie cheap. If they can, it may peak interest. However, there's a chance that Lowrie's price goes up based on so few available options.
A two-year, $13 million deal with the A's wouldn't surprise me, but neither would a three-year, $30 million deal from someone else.
Someone may just overpay for Lowrie's services.
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4. Is Eric Sogard the Starter at Second Base Still?
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This one is pretty easy to settle, dependent on the answer to the first question on this list.
If it's a fire sale, Eric Sogard stays as the incumbent at second base. He's cheap, and he can play defense.
But if Beane believes the roster can still contend, and he intends to make any kind of upgrade, it has to be at second base.
Sogard hit .223 in 2014. Alberto Callaspo hit the exact same. Nick Punto's option vested, which means he returns, but he hit .207. Andy Parrino had limited opportunity, but he hit .152.
None of these options are great.
Available free-agent options include (thanks to MLBTradeRumors):
Emilio Bonifacio (30)
Mark Ellis (38)
Rafael Furcal (37)
Brandon Hicks (29)
Kelly Johnson (33)
Brian Roberts (37)
Ramon Santiago (35)
Rickie Weeks (32)—$11.5MM vesting option
Josh Wilson (34)
Ben Zobrist (34)—$7.5MM club option with a $500k buyout
Add Jed Lowrie into the mix as well.
Bonifacio hit loads better than the A's bunch while with the Chicago Cubs, but he stunk after being traded to the Atlanta Braves. Still, he finished better than all of Oakland's options.
Zobrist will be the most coveted, so it would be shocking (and awesome) if he came to Oakland. Same goes for Rickie Weeks, the next best option.
Everyone else is pretty "meh."
5. What Will the Rotation Look Like?
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If the A's kept everyone who is under contract with the organization, they'd have Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Sonny Gray, A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker. They'd also have Drew Pomeranz and Jesse Chavez, two guys who pitched in the rotation at some point in 2014.
So with seven potential starters, things could get tricky.
Throw in the fact that Parker returns from his second Tommy John surgery and Griffin his first, and it's even more tricky.
Add in the potential for one or two starters to be traded, and you get the idea.
So who stays? Who goes?
That's a decision the A's will have to make. A season ago, the depth was a luxury. Parker and Griffin went down; Chavez and Tommy Milone stepped in. Around the time you might expect Chavez to suffer fatigue, the team acquired Jason Hammel and Samardzija.
With this group, you hopefully wouldn't need seven solid starters.
And if Decision 1A is in regards to the rotation, Decision 1B specifically deals with Chavez's role. Is he a starter or a reliever? Shuffling guys back and forth can be hard. Ask Justin Duchscherer—or Joba Chamberlain.
If it's me, I trade Kazmir. My rotation is Gray, Samardzija, Parker, Pomeranz and Griffin. I keep Chavez in the bullpen as permanently as possible.
6. Figure out Who Plays Left Field
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The A's official depth chart lists Jonny Gomes as the starter in left field. He's a free agent.
Next is Stephen Vogt. He's normally a catcher. Sam Fuld and Craig Gentry follow Vogt. Both were backup outfielders in 2014.
Like shortstop, the A's need a left fielder.
There are a slew of options, but I'm not sold that any are truly upgrades over someone like Gentry. No one is going to match Yoenis Cespedes' production. Anyone can do what Gomes did. It's just a matter of finding that guy who will help the team compete—a guy who will hit.
I don't think Gentry is a terrible option.
He hit a combined .288 in the three seasons prior to coming to Oakland. Once here, he hit .254 in 90 games. It wouldn't be unwise to give the guy a chance at a full-time role. If the A's are in contention near the trade deadline and left field is a weakness, it can be upgraded.
Here are a couple of free-agent options:
Melky Cabrera
Nelson Cruz
Chris Denorfia
Tony Gwynn Jr.
Jason Kubel
Mike Morse
Alfonso Soriano
Josh Willingham
Torii Hunter is a notable free-agent outfielder as well, though he normally plays right field.
So perhaps a sub-decision to make regarding left field, shortstop or second base is this: Should the A's bring in a big bat to replace Cespedes?
7. What to Do with John Jaso?
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2013: John Jaso's season ends due to a concussion stemming from activity behind the plate.
2014: John Jaso's season ends due to a concussion stemming from activity behind the plate.
First, the team must decide whether to keep Jaso or not.
He may have decent trade value as a platoon or veteran backup catcher (or a DH) for someone else. The A's won't get a top-10 prospect for him. They probably won't get a top-20 prospect. But if someone were to offer, say, a No. 23 prospect, that might be good enough to get a trade worked out.
If they keep him, the A's must then decide what to do with him.
If the team keeps Derek Norris and Stephen Vogt also, it doesn't really need Jaso to resume behind-the-plate duties. The A's can protect him better by moving him to full-time DH or teaching him first base.
8. Who Replaces Chip Hale?
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Bench coach Chip Hale signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks to become the team's seventh manager in history.
That's awesome for Hale, but now there's an empty seat on the A's bench in need of filling.
San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Susan Slusser listed multiple candidates for Oakland's bench coach the day the Hale news broke.
According to Slusser, the top candidate is St. Louis' current bench coach, Mike Aldrete. Aldrete has ties to manager Bob Melvin as well as California's Bay Area.
Slusser speculated former Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson could be a candidate if he does not find another managerial position first.
Oakland should also look internally to fill the role. However, as Slusser reports, the top internal candidate, Chili Davis, may also be on the move. If he also leaves, then that creates an 11th decision: filling the hitting coach role.
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