Updated National Championship Odds for Top 10 Teams After Week 7
There are 26 remaining zero- or one-loss teams from power conferences, and all 26 would have at least an argument for making the College Football Playoff if they ran the table for the rest of the season.
For obvious reasons, though, the Top 10 teams in the country are the ones with the highest odds of making and winning the CFP. Exceptions such as Oklahoma loom right on the periphery, but for the most part, the Top 10 teams are the active favorites.
The odds on this list were created using easy-to-understand criteria, restated below from my post-Week 3 odds board:
"Were the season (from this point forward) played X more times, Team Y would win the national championship once…
In trying to decide that answer—abstract as it may be—the primary factors under consideration were talent, experience, coaching, how the team has looked thus far and schedule difficulty.
That last point is of particular importance. These odds do not reflect how a team would fare in a four-team playoff, necessarily. They first reflect how likely a team is to even make a four-team playoff, and then they reflect how the team in question would fare.
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Sound off below to let us know what you think.
Note: All team rankings refer to the Week 8 Associated Press Poll. All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports Composite rankings.
10. Georgia (5-1)
1 of 10
Championship Odds: 30-1
Team Breakdown
Georgia played its best game of the season less than two days after learning that its Heisman-candidate running back and indubitable best player, Todd Gurley, was suspended indefinitely pending an investigation into an alleged violation of NCAA rules.
In a vacuum, replacing Gurley should be next to impossible, but running back is one of the most fungible positions on the field, and Georgia has 5-star freshman Nick Chubb around to shoulder the load. Chubb had 38 carries in his first career start at Missouri in Week 7.
Quarterback Hutson Mason has been a disappointment, but he played well at Missouri, which if nothing else gives him something to build on during the second half of the year. Ditto that sentiment for Georgia's defensive backfield. Even without Gurley, Georgia can run and stop the run well enough to compete for an SEC title. How it passes and defends the pass will dictate how far it goes.
Schedule Breakdown
Georgia has only one ranked team remaining on its schedule, and that team, No. 6 Auburn, has to come to Athens in November. The Bulldogs are likely to be favored in five of their final six games, and the line for the Auburn game could go either way.
This coming week's game at Arkansas and a Nov. 8 trip to Kentucky are the only road games left on the schedule, and both of those games are winnable (albeit far less of a given than they were in 2013). The neutral-field Cocktail Party against Florida will be as ugly as it is every year, but Florida does not know how to win games.
Finishing 10-2 might be good enough for Georgia to win the SEC East, at which point it would be 60 minutes away from winning the nation's best conference. Depending on how the rest of the conferences play out, it is difficult to say whether that would be good enough for entry into the playoff. Even if it was—or even if Georgia went 11-1—that wouldn't necessarily mean it had fixed the pass offense and defense to a degree with which it could compete for a national title.
Bottom Line
The schedule breaks nicely. The division breaks nicely. Even the Gurley thing might break nicely [crosses fingers].
But this is still a team that almost (and probably should have) lost to Tennessee a few weeks ago. And early-season results against Clemson (a 45-21 win before the Tigers turned to Deshaun Watson) and South Carolina (a 38-35 loss against a team that is currently unranked) look less impressive with each passing week.
Georgia is still a long shot.
9. Oregon (5-1)
2 of 10
Championship Odds: 18-1
Team Breakdown
The return of injured left tackle Jake Fisher, who himself was replacing injured left tackle Tyler Johnstone, was a panacea for Oregon's offensive woes against UCLA. After punts on its first two drives, it scored touchdowns on five consecutive possessions in the second and third quarters to storm away with a resume-building win.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota stood on his head to keep the Ducks undefeated against Michigan State and Washington State, and even though he ran out of magic against Arizona, he is still playing uniquely good football. With Gurley's status in doubt for the rest of the season, Mariota is, in my esteem, the best player in the country.
The question is whether the offense can maintain last week's mode of efficiency for the rest of the season. The defense has revealed itself to be the consummate Oregon defense—good enough to win when the offense plays well but not so good that it can win on its own—and is especially leaky on third down. Mariota will have to bring it every week for this team to appear like a national title contender.
Schedule Breakdown
The biggest hurdle left for Oregon to clear is a home date with Stanford, a team that has beaten it in each of the past two seasons. The Ducks would like to think they solved their "physical defense problem" when they scored 46 points against Michigan State in Week 2, but Michigan State and Stanford—while similar—are not clones of one another. Stanford's defense has been much, much better this season, and November's game will not be played in 100-degree heat.
Almost every other game on the schedule could be rightfully labeled a "trap." Washington was atrocious against Stanford but has enough athletes (and an intrepid-enough head coach) to give Oregon trouble. Utah is ranked No. 20 in the AP poll and good for one giant home upset each season. Cal and Colorado can score, which is…um…well…something. And the always-weird Civil War against Oregon State gets especially weird when it's played in Corvallis.
For the five non-SEC teams on this list, losing two games and making the playoff are mutually exclusive. The Ducks will be in good shape if they finish 12-1, but anything short of that will eliminate them.
Bottom Line
Even after losing to Arizona, Oregon has the look of a national title contender. Auburn lost to LSU last season, Michigan State lost to Notre Dame and South Carolina lost to Tennessee. Those teams finished second, third and fourth in the final AP poll.
The offensive line will get a stiff test against Washington this weekend then again when Stanford visits in Week 10. Both of those games are at home, but if the Ducks' most questionable unit can pass those tests, nothing they see in the CFP will intimidate them.
8. Michigan State (5-1)
3 of 10
Championship Odds: 15-1
Team Breakdown
It's just like people always say: Michigan State would be a legit national title contender if it could ever find a defense to match its offense.
Hold on…what?
It's true, though. Sparty ranks No. 4 in the country in points per game (45.5) and No. 17 in yards per game (504.0). Quarterback Connor Cook has continued his development toward Heisman candidacy (although he won't put up big enough numbers to win it), and receiver Tony Lippett has slowly morphed into an All-Big Ten player. No team besides Oregon has sacked a Michigan State QB all season.
The defense, meanwhile, ranks No. 34 in yards per play allowed (4.92) after leading the nation in that category last season (4.04). Oregon gained 491 yards and scored 46 points against the Spartans in Week 2, and Purdue just scored 31 points against them Saturday.
If you believe in coordinator Pat Narduzzi and the talent he's assembled, it is easy to buy this team as a national title contender. The offense is for real, and the defense—even in its current state—is good enough to keep the team in games. If both units play the way they're capable of playing for the same 60-minute stretch, watch out.
Schedule Breakdown
Ohio State is the only ranked team left on Michigan State's schedule—and unlike Georgia, that includes a theoretical conference title game. If the Spartans beat OSU in East Lansing Nov. 8, they become heavy favorites to finish 12-1 and make the playoff.
As far as trap games go, a road trip to Maryland the week after playing Ohio State jumps out. But that is more for the spot than it is for the opponent. Maryland got steamrolled by Ohio State a couple of weeks ago, and opponents such as Michigan and Penn State who looked tricky in the preseason have been poor through seven weeks.
The second-best team left on MSU's schedule is probably Rutgers, which comes to East Lansing Nov. 22.
Bottom Line
Ohio State looks scary again, but even so, only one team in the top half of the poll has an easier remaining schedule than MSU.
If you think the defensive issues are fixable, Mark Dantonio's team can hang with anyone it faces in the playoff. If you don't, it can still back its way into the four-team field but will likely get drilled.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Alabama (5-1)
4 of 10
Championship Odds: 15-1
Team Breakdown
The offense that looked so good for the first six weeks has taken an enormous step back. Against Ole Miss and Arkansas, Alabama has scored 24 combined offensive points. It walked away from those games 1-1, lucky to salvage even the one win it did.
The biggest problem has not been quarterback Blake Sims or offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin—the two most likely scapegoats—but the right side of the offensive line. Cam Robinson and Ario Kouandjio have held their own on the left side, but Austin Shepard and Alphonse Taylor/Leon Brown/whoever else has tried to play right guard have not held their own across from them. Kevin Weidl of ESPN.com said Arkansas "took it to 'Bama in the trenches."
Fortunately, the defense has answered the questions that existed after the West Virginia game in Week 1, slowly morphing into a typical Nick Saban-and-Kirby Smart outfit. Most recently, it held Arkansas, a team that entered averaging 316.6 rushing yards per game and 6.9 yards per carry, to 89 rushing yards and 2.3 yards per carry.
Schedule Breakdown
Alabama does not control its own fate in the SEC West, needing Ole Miss to lose twice (or once to the right team) if it wants to make the conference title game.
That, however, does not mean its playoff future is beyond its control. The Crimson Tide play all three of their remaining ranked opponents (Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn) in Tuscaloosa and are likely to be favored in all of their remaining games. Even if Ole Miss wins out, an 11-1 record in the SEC West will be difficult for the selection committee to snub—especially since, in this scenario, that one loss came on the road against a team that finished undefeated.
Emphasis on conference champions be damned.
Bottom Line
Compared with some of the other SEC West teams in the Top 10, Alabama's schedule is conducive to running the table. It is difficult to say which team is the true class of the division—the four best teams have met twice, and the home team has won in both cases—so for the time being, that marks a salient advantage.
Alabama hasn't lost multiple regular-season games since 2010 and will make the playoff if that trend continues. Tom Weir of Bleacher Report wondered if anyone is scared of Alabama anymore, but if teams know what is good for them, they should be.
6. Auburn (5-1)
5 of 10
Championship Odds: 20-1
Team Breakdown
Last year, Auburn had a dominant rushing game. This year, it has merely a great one. So far, the difference has been palpable.
Nick Marshall has improved as a passer but not to the point where Auburn can can ride his arm to a national title. Even with the spark of receiver D'haquille Williams—a first-year JUCO transfer who is playing like an All-American—Auburn's passing game cannot be the unit that carries the offense. The running game must play better than it was against Kansas State (in a game Auburn should have lost) and Mississippi State (in a game that it did).
The defense showed some cracks against Mississippi State last week, but on the road against the No. 1 team in the country, that is a forgivable offense. For the most part, Ellis Johnson's group has been a bright spot of the first half of the season. Last year, Auburn won in spite of its defense. This year, it can win because of it.
Schedule Breakdown
Auburn still has three road games against Top 10 opponents (Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama) and home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M. It would be lucky to finish the year 10-2.
Even if they get there, though, the Tigers would need chaos to ensue both in and outside of the SEC for that to get them into the playoff. No matter the quality of the losses, arguing that a two-loss non-division-champion should play for the national title is a tough sell.
(Just go ask South Carolina.)
Bottom Line
We have known since the preseason that Auburn has an impossible schedule, and it's only gotten harder with the emergence of the Mississippi schools, both of which Auburn plays on the road.
Gus Malzahn's team is properly ranked at No. 6 and would probably beat Oregon, Michigan State and Alabama on a neutral field. But the schedule plays a vital part in this assessment, and Auburn's is the hardest in the country, bar none.
5. Notre Dame (6-0)
6 of 10
Championship Odds: 18-1
Team Breakdown
Notre Dame has not played an impressive game from start to finish since Week 2 against Michigan. But it says a lot about a team when it remains undefeated in spite of that.
Quarterback Everett Golson has played his way into the Heisman conversation and is as fun to watch as any player in the country, but he regressed from the first quarter of the season to the second. The turnover issues are becoming a turnover epidemic, enough so that the Irish almost lost a game they dominated against UNC.
Brian VanGorder's defense has overachieved and deserves a lot of credit but has scant been tested by a competent offense. The closest thing it has faced was UNC, which gained 510 yards and scored 43 points. Even before that game, it ranked outside the Top 15 in the S&P+ defensive ratings at Football Outsiders.
None of which is to say that this team isn't good. It is. The question is whether it's national-title-contention good.
On that front, I remain dubious.
Schedule Breakdown
Notre Dame has three upcoming road games against ranked opponents (Florida State, Arizona State and USC) and a few potential traps beyond that. Navy almost beat the Irish in South Bend last season, Louisville's defense can keep things close against anyone and Northwestern beat Wisconsin two weeks ago.
With a schedule that difficult, it is fair to assume an 11-1 record would get the Irish into the playoff. If it loses at Florida State this weekend and finishes 11-1, that means its only loss came on the road against the defending national champion. If it wins at Florida State this weekend and finishes 11-1, that means it only lost one game and has a quality road win against the defending national champion.
10-2, however, will not cut it.
Bottom Line
Is Everett Golson the new Bo Wallace? Can he throw his team both into and out of any game? Will the defense hold firm once it starts playing real offenses such as Florida State and Arizona State? Was the close win over UNC a portent or a look-ahead fluke?
That is just the beginning of the questions surrounding Notre Dame, which also include the eligibility of the five players suspended during an ongoing academic probe. If the season ended today, Brian Kelly would be on the short list for national coach of the year, but as the schedule gets harder, this team must make big improvements.
4. Baylor (6-0)
7 of 10
Championship Odds: 9-1
Team Breakdown
The report of the Baylor's offensive death was an exaggeration. One week after struggling to gain traction against Texas, the Bears gained 782 yards and scored 61 points in a wild comeback win over TCU.
It's unnerving that Baylor needed such a wild comeback to beat TCU on its home field—especially since its supposedly improved defense allowed 58 points—but a win over a Top 10 team is a win over a Top 10 team. Especially after TCU beat Oklahoma one week prior, clearing that hurdle will go a long way in winning the Big 12.
If the defense can bounce back from last week's struggles, this team still has the makeup of a national title contender. The offense and defense have clicked separately during conference play, but if they ever click at the same time, Baylor can hang with anybody.
Schedule Breakdown
Baylor controls its own fate (obviously) and only has two road games remaining. Unfortunately, one of those road games is at Oklahoma, where Bob Stoops almost never loses. The other is in a letdown spot next weekend at West Virginia, where the Mountaineers seem to pull at least one massive upset each season.
If the Bears finish 11-1 with a road loss to Oklahoma, it sets the stage for a potential three-way tie between them, the Sooners and TCU. A one-loss Big 12 champion would stand a good chance of making the playoff, but if Baylor's one loss comes in Norman, that one-loss Big 12 champion might be the Sooners instead of the Bears.
Bottom Line
Baylor would be sitting pretty if Texas had upset Oklahoma (in a game the Longhorns deserved to win) last weekend. Instead, its season will still be defined by whether it can beat the Sooners on the road.
Doing so would be no small feat, but this Baylor team has the feel of something special. The nature of last week's comeback was patently Auburn-esque. Much like last year's national runner-up, this team has more than enough offense and just enough defense to win (or come within 16 seconds of winning) a national title.
3. Ole Miss (6-0)
8 of 10
Championship Odds: 7-1
Team Breakdown
The "Landsharks" defense has seen no shortage of praise these past two weeks—and rightfully so. Tom Fornelli said it replaced Michigan State as his favorite defense in the country on the Eye on College Football Podcast, and Barrett Sallee of Bleacher Report wrote "there's no doubt that this defense is…the best in the nation."
My personal pick for "best defense in the nation" would be Stanford, but I agree with Fornelli and Sallee's sentiment. What Ole Miss is doing right now is insane. It held Alabama to 10 offensive points two weeks ago before shutting out Texas A&M in the first half Saturday. It was the first time a Kevin Sumlin-coached team has ever failed to score in the first half of a game, per Travis Haney of ESPN.com.
Equally impressive these past two weeks has been the offense, a unit led by quarterback Bo Wallace. Best known for his habit of throwing erratic interceptions, Dr. Bo played two of the best games of his career against the Crimson Tide and Aggies, completing 62 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and no turnovers. For the season, his QB rating of 168.1 ranks No. 8 in the country.
Before the start of SEC play, the question was when—not if—Wallace would throw away the Rebels' undefeated season. Having seen what he has done the past two weeks, it is time to reconsider that assessment. If Wallace keeps playing efficient football, there is no reason this team can't compete for a national title.
That "if" is still a major caveat—two good games does not erase two-plus seasons of data—but it is no longer inconceivable.
Schedule Breakdown
Ole Miss' schedule is even more conducive to success than that of Alabama. It only has two ranked opponents remaining, and both of them (Auburn and Mississippi State) come to Oxford. The only road games left on the schedule are at LSU and Arkansas. At this point, the latter might be harder than the former.
If the Rebels beat Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, it is hard to envision a scenario where they don't win the SEC West. They have already beaten Alabama, and Auburn (as previously stated) would be lucky to finish with just two conference losses. Beating the Bulldogs would give Ole Miss the tiebreaker over them and Alabama.
Bottom Line
No team in the country has a better combination of resume and remaining schedule than Ole Miss. The No. 2 team in the poll has a worse resume but an easier remaining schedule. The No. 1 team in the poll has a better resume but a harder remaining schedule. All of that seems to suggest good things for the Rebels.
The only reason these odds aren't higher is because of Wallace. He has played exactly as well as Ole Miss needs him to play these past two weeks, but as recently as Week 5 against Memphis—when he turned the ball over three times and led the offense to seven points in the first three quarters—that did not appear to be the case.
Fair or not, he's a difficult player to trust.
2. Florida State (6-0)
9 of 10
Championship Odds: 4-1
Team Breakdown
Florida State has issues. Seven weeks is too long for its struggles to be chalked up as "sleepwalking" or "a championship hangover." This team is legitimately worse than it was last season.
But it's still pretty darn good.
Quarterback Jameis Winston completed 30 of 36 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns against Syracuse last weekend. His offensive line, which returned four senior starters from one of the best position groups in the country, finally showed signs of returning to form. And 5-star freshman running back Dalvin Cook looked ready for prime time in relief of injured starter Karlos Williams.
The defense has taken a step back but played its best game of the season under its most trying circumstance—specifically, when Winston was suspended against Clemson. The individual pieces are there for the Seminoles to field a top-10 defense, but first-year coordinator Charles Kelly has yet to make them all fit together.
Syrcause, for example, averaged 6.15 yards per play last weekend.
Last year, FSU allowed an average of 4.09 yards per play.
Schedule Breakdown
The Seminoles play a home night game against Notre Dame this weekend and no other ranked teams for the reason of the season. Their only remaining road games are at Louisville (the week after a bye) and Miami (whose home crowd exists in the abstract).
Jimbo Fisher's team is not playing the best football in the country right now, but of all the zero- and one-loss teams out there, it is the one that can most afford to peak later in the season.
Bottom Line
Winning the playoff will be difficult, but making the playoff is substantially harder. Florida State must get its act together to have a shot of doing the former, but no team in the country has a better shot of doing the latter. And we all know where its ceiling still lies.
Fair or not, that makes it the betting favorite.
1. Mississippi State (6-0)
10 of 10
Championship Odds: 6-1
Team Breakdown
Mississippi State has been game for every challenge it has faced so far this season. LSU is down, but winning a convincing night game at Tiger Stadium still means something. So does throwing Texas A&M and Auburn's offenses out of whack in consecutive weeks.
If the season ended today, quarterback Dak Prescott would be a deserving Heisman recipient. He ranks No. 5 in the country in ESPN's Total QBR metric, highest among all undefeated quarterbacks, and has shown well in all three of his team's biggest games.
But the Bulldogs offense has not been a one-man show. The offensive line has been nasty, paving huge holes for Prescott and bowling-ball shaped running back Josh Robinson to run through, and 6'5" receiver De'Runnya Wilson has looked like a pseudo-Kelvin Benjamin. If and when last year's leading receiver, Jameon Lewis, returns to the lineup, an already fine-tuned unit will get finer and finer.
But the real heart of Mississippi State is its defense. And the real heart of its defense is the front seven. Preston Smith, Chris Jones and Benardrick McKinney are the biggest names (and all are future NFL starters), but even the lesser-known players have contributed.
Thirteen different Bulldogs have recorded at least one half sack.
Schedule Breakdown
Mississippi State has an easier schedule than Auburn but a harder one than Ole Miss and Alabama. Specifically, it has to play those latter two teams on the road. Depending on how the rest of the conference shakes out, splitting those road games might be enough to win the SEC West. But even getting a split will be tough.
Also tough are a pair of potential trap games: at Kentucky and home against Arkansas. The Wildcats are a triple-overtime loss against Florida away from being 6-0 (and likely ranked inside the Top 20), and the Razorbacks have played close games against Auburn (sort of), Texas A&M and Alabama. Both teams have a chance to beat the Bulldogs if enough things (e.g. turnover luck) break their way.
Bottom Line
Mississippi State has accomplished more through seven weeks than any other team in the country. That is why it's ranked No. 1 in the polls. The only factors working against it are the schedule (which seems fair) and the fact that it's Mississippi State (not so much).
"There’s no doubt in my mind we can win a championship here," said head coach Dan Mullen, per Matt Hayes of Sporting News. "We refuse to let what other people think dictate who we are."
Well said, Coach Mullen.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
