2014 Sprint Cup Chase: Burning Questions Ahead of Charlotte Night Race
While there's still two races left in the Contender Round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Saturday night's Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway could wind up being the most important race of the season for several drivers.
The reason is simple: With the unpredictable nature of Talladega, the final race of the Contender Round, it's crucial for drivers lagging in the standings coming into Saturday to hit a home run this week. The last thing they want to do is cast their fate—and Chase hopes—solely on Talladega, where you can go from the lead to out of the race in a literal blink of an eye.
As we head into this weekend of racing, here are the burning questions that NASCAR fans and media are asking.
What Will Happen to Jimmie Johnson?
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After his devastating finish at Kansas this past Sunday, leaving him last of the 12 still-eligible Chase drivers, Jimmie Johnson has only one way to go: up.
But just because he's won seven times in his career at Charlotte Motor Speedway, there's no guarantee Johnson will make it eight. Look at Dover two weeks ago: He had nine previous wins there, but he wasn't able to make it 10 (Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon won instead).
Johnson has just one item on his agenda Saturday: to win. Anything less and he will go to the final race of the Contender Round at Talladega next week with a realistic chance of being eliminated from the Chase. It's hard to believe we're saying that about the six-time and defending Cup champ, but it's the reality of what he faces.
"The mindset is really to come in and try to take a trophy out of here," Johnson said during his media availability at Charlotte on Thursday. "That really solves our problem in the points that we have right now. If we can’t, we still need to focus on finishing as high as we can.
"And the reason that leaves a little bit of hope is that if you miss the big ones in Talladega, you could assume that some of the Chasers will be involved in one or two of those, and you might have another chance.
"It is a fading chance, in the position I’m in, I believe, but it is still an opportunity, and it is something for us to consider. We’re here to try and win the race, but if we can’t, we still need to finish well and hope we have some luck down in Talladega."
Will Hendrick Motorsports Be Able to Collectively Get Back into the Chase?
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With three of its four drivers ranked between ninth and 12th, Hendrick Motorsports is in a big pickle heading into Charlotte.
Johnson, Kasey Kahne and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are all below the current Chase demarcation line going into Charlotte.
Fortunately, there are still two races left—in theory. But from a more realistic standpoint, all three drivers need to bounce back at Charlotte with strong finishes (a win by any of them would be outstanding). Otherwise, they will leave their fate of advancing in the Chase in the hands of the true wild-card race next Sunday at Talladega.
And let's not forget about the only HMS driver to win a race thus far in this year's Chase, Gordon. He's currently tied for seventh in the standings.
While he's above the cutoff line, Gordon is far from feeling comfortable.
Will Carl Edwards Be Able to Hold His Ground?
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When I looked at the Chase standings after Kansas and saw Carl Edwards tied for third, I was certain that was a misprint.
But it's not.
Edwards, the lone remaining representative for Roush Fenway Racing in the Chase, is in a strong position heading to Charlotte.
Edwards typically does well at the 1.5-mile oval (three top-fives and seven top-10s), and if he can come away with a top-five finish, he'll have essentially punched his ticket to the Eliminator Round even before the series heads to Talladega.
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Will Kyle Busch Keep Up His Momentum?
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Kyle Busch jumped up to second place in the Chase standings after a surprisingly strong fifth-place run at Kansas. But Busch has a history of having decent starts in the Chase, only to fade once the playoff hits the midpoint of the 10-race postseason.
And where is Saturday night's race at Charlotte poised on the schedule?
Yep, it's the fifth race in the Chase.
Busch had his best career finish in last year's Chase, ending up fourth in the final standings. With that in mind, one question arises: Was that a fluke finish for Busch or a sign of even better things to come—like in this season?
Will Brad Keselowski Turn Things Around After Kansas?
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One week ago, Brad Keselowski was part of a 12-way tie for first place in the Chase as the Contender Round began at Kansas. But after Kansas, he found himself in foreign territory: 10th place. If the Contender Round would have ended at Kansas, Keselowski would not have advanced in the Chase.
That's why, much like Johnson, Earnhardt and Kahne—who are sandwiched around Keselowski in the standings—the 2012 Sprint Cup champ needs to have a big bounce-back at Charlotte.
Granted, Keselowski has a strong record at Talladega, but there's nothing he wants to leave to chance.
If he can have a top-five finish at Charlotte, that would lift Keselowski back up in the standings. Of course, a win Saturday night would be the ultimate bonus, but he has to get there first, and that's not an easy thing at a place that can be very unpredictable.
Will Joey Logano Be Able to Win Again, Perhaps as Early as Saturday?
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Really, is there anyone who could have predicted that Joey Logano would win two of the first four Chase races?
But that's exactly what he has done—winning three weeks ago at his home track of New Hampshire Motor Speedway and then again this past Sunday at Kansas Speedway.
All of a sudden, Logano has become the favorite to win the title—at least this week.
Logano has continued to do in the Chase what he did during the 26-race regular season; if he can't earn the win, he's made sure he had a strong finish in races where he fell short of Victory Lane.
Charlotte is certainly a place where he can win. But he doesn't need to be aggressive, knowing he's already locked in to advance to the Eliminator Round after Talladega.
Frankly, Logano could take a vacation for this week and next, and he'd still be among the elite eight in the Elimination Round.
Which Non-Chase Drivers Could Play Spoiler at Charlotte?
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Charlotte is a track that sets up nicely for non-Chasers such as Tony Stewart and Martin Truex Jr., as well as drivers who've been eliminated from further advancement in the Chase like Kurt Busch and Greg Biffle.
Stewart has not won since June 2013 at Dover. He's at risk of going through an entire season without at least one win for the first time in his career.
Truex has had a less-than-stellar year in his first season with Furniture Row Racing, but he's always a threat to pull the proverbial rabbit out of his hat. Charlotte could be just the place for him to do so.
And then there's the elder Busch brother and Biffle. Even though both were eliminated from the Chase, they still have something significant to race—and win—for. Drivers who are eliminated in the Challenger, Contender and Eliminator rounds still have the chance to finish as high as fifth in the final season standings.
That's plenty of incentive right there to not go moping through the rest of the Chase just because you were eliminated in the first round.
Will Kevin Harvick's Bad Luck FINALLY Come to an End?
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Kevin Harvick has led 467 laps thus far in the first four Chase races, and what does he have to show for it?
Certainly no wins, that's for sure.
But the law of averages has to turn in Harvick's favor sooner or later. And Charlotte could be just the place for that to happen.
In fact, if Harvick finally reaches Victory Lane on Saturday night, it not only would put him into the Eliminator Round, it also would give his team confidence and momentum that it has lacked for much of this season.
Charlotte is right in Harvick's wheelhouse, a fast 1.5-mile track that he's had decent success at in the past. Now all he needs is for good luck to finally grace him and his team, and who knows what might happen from there in the final five Chase races.
Will Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman Continue to Fly Under the Radar?
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Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman are conundrums of sorts. With both still winless this season—the only Chase drivers without a victory in 2014—they've been able to sustain and advance to the second elimination round by virtue of consistency.
Can Kenseth, who led the Sprint Cup Series with a high of seven wins last season, finally break his winless slump at Charlotte? He's had mixed success there, but at the same time, he has just as good of a chance to win there as any other driver, Chase contender or not.
Newman is in the same boat.
Kenseth hasn't forgotten how to win this season. It's just that Toyota has significantly lagged behind its Chevrolet and Ford counterparts when it comes to reaching Victory Lane.
Can Kenseth and Toyota finally break through Saturday night? It sure would help his advancement chances. Ditto for Newman.
That said, if Kenseth and Newman continue to maintain the great consistency they've shown all season, who knows, maybe one of them could wind up going through the entire season without a win and yet still win the championship.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
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