Why San Francisco 49ers Avoid Trap Game Against Rams in Week 6
Let’s just come out and say it: Will the San Francisco 49ers really face a trap game against the St. Louis Rams in Week 6?
Could the 49ers actually fall to a 1-4 team operating with an undrafted, third-string quarterback and the 30th-ranked defense in points allowed?
Will the prospects of playing the Denver Broncos in Week 7 seriously cause San Francisco to overlook its struggling NFC West foe?
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In a word, yes. In a hypothetical context, of course.
The unmitigated ire emanating from the 49ers faithful is all too tangible right now.
We acknowledge this understandable reaction and ask those great fans to bear with us.
The 49ers lost to an inferior Chicago Bears squad when an undisciplined game plan and cute play-calling led to numerous turnovers and a second-half collapse.
Their error-prone ways continued against the Arizona Cardinals a week later.
They dismissed any notion of losing to a backup quarterback but ultimately did just that by not making the appropriate adjustments after halftime.
It’s certainly not inconceivable, then, that the 49ers take for granted an opponent playing with its backup’s backup at the most important position on the field, right?
Well, if this were early September and not the second week of October.
The same Jim Harbaugh-coached team that failed so mightily in Weeks 2 and 3 did just the opposite in the subsequent two games.
Despite struggling offensively and coughing up two touchdowns on special teams, San Francisco overcame the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. The Vic Fangio-coordinated defense shut out the NFL’s No. 2 scoring offense en route to a 26-21 victory.
Fangio and offensive coordinator Greg Roman then dialed up masterful, strength-focusing schemes against the rising Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5.
Running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde powered a ball-control attack for the league’s No. 3 rushing offense. Cornerback Perrish Cox and the Niners secondary, meanwhile, made good on necessary adjustments in coverage in the second half.
San Francisco prevailed 22-17 by owning time of possession and shutting down its former No. 1 pick Alex Smith when it mattered.
A timely fake punt called by special teams coach Brad Seely didn’t hurt either.
So again, if this were four weeks ago, the 49ers would have fallen into the trap.
They would have looked ahead to the more challenging matchup and would’ve paid dearly for their neglect.
But because those previous defeats were so embarrassing and franchise-altering, the Harbaugh-led coaching staff has since refocused the team toward a winning approach.
And that successful execution will continue this week against the Rams.
Let’s now expand in some more detail.
Gore and Hyde Rush for 100 Yards…Each
The Rams have allowed 152.5 yards rushing per game this season. Only two teams have given up more.
St. Louis has also coughed up seven rushing gains of 20-plus yards and two of over 40 yards. Nary a team has surrendered more.
It stands to reason that its latest foe will exploit this weakness with what it does best.
The 49ers rank No. 3 in the league with an average of 145.0 yards on the ground. They have achieved that mark with great balance, as three players have totaled at least 100 yards on the year.
Gore leads the way with 365 yards on 77 carries. Kaepernick and Hyde have added 205 and 132 yards, respectively.
San Francisco’s run-orientated identity has been realized even more so under OC Roman as of late.
Gore has averaged 21 carries for 113 yards over his past two games. Hyde has also compiled 10 touches in each of these contests. They have indeed capitalized on the offensive line’s eagerness—and strength—to maul in the trenches as run-blockers.
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranks the 49ers at No. 2 overall in that aforementioned category.
It’s also worth noting that Gore’s highest single-game output (153 yards) and two of his nine touchdowns last season came against the Rams defense.
And said unit currently features gaping deficiencies throughout its front seven.
Defensive end Chris Long is out, and usual stalwarts Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers and James Laurinaitis, among others, have vastly underperformed. William Hayes and rookie tackle Aaron Donald are the only two with legitimate positive scores in run defense from PFF.
As for Week 6 of 2014, expect a powerful one-two punch from the Niners backfield.
No. 21 will steadily accumulate his 100-plus yards, with Hyde producing in explosive fashion en route to his triple-digit total.
Intercept Davis…Thrice
With the 49ers dominating time of possession behind Gore and Co., St. Louis will find itself without the luxury of a balanced game plan on offense.
San Francisco’s No. 5 rank against the run will only compound that realization.
As such, Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will task quarterback Austin Davis with a pass-heavy attack.
It’s not like he hasn’t already done so over the previous two weeks.
Davis has averaged over 45 passing attempts in that span. He helped generate an early lead against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 but was forced into air-it-out comeback mode late. The same applied in Week 5 after the Philadelphia Eagles soared to a 34-7 advantage.
Expect a similar dynamic when the 49ers travel to Edward Jones Dome on Sunday.
The Niners’ opportunistic defense has notched the third-most interceptions. That top-three total will rise into the top one, as Fangio will drop more guys into coverage and take advantage of the Rams' predictable approach.
Rookie slot corner Jimmie Ward will join the triple-interception party with his first career pick.
The Rams won’t secure end-zone paydirt for the first time since Week 1.
Bottle Up Austin, Discipline Continues
There was a two-week stretch last year when Devin Hester’s heir apparent seemed to emerge.
And, oh, was it breathtaking indeed.
Tavon Austin exploded his way to touchdown glory with a 98-yard punt return, 65-yard run and two catches of 57 and 81 yards in back-to-back games. The 4.34-40-running, No. 8 overall draft pick in 2013 absolutely gashed the opposition from all areas of the field.
The Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears, as could be imagined, were none too pleased.
But then 2014 happened.
Austin has totaled all of 123 yards and zero touchdowns on the season. And that’s rushing, receiving and special teams returns combined.
So, why would the 49ers even concern themselves with a guy who’s clearly fallen into such a glaring sophomore slump?
Because Darren Sproles, a more proven but similarly dynamic athlete, burned them for an 82-yard punt return just two weeks ago.
And because the 49ers have shown they’re a forward-thinking, adaptive bunch this year.
Fangio and Seely will coach their respective units as if Austin were in his 2013, game-breaking form. They will ensure the Niners front seven, secondary and punt-return personnel are all at the top of their games come Sunday.
Staying in the proper rushing lanes, executing coverage responsibilities and playing disciplined overall football will be in the mind’s eye of every 49ers defender.
The same goes for the team as a whole.
Harbaugh understands implicitly what happens when an NFL squad takes its opponent for granted.
These very Rams forced San Francisco into an overtime tie—and loss—in these squads’ two matchups in 2012. The 49ers were the superior group.
They then responded by crushing their NFC West foe by a combined margin of 58-24 last year. Superiority clearly prevailed this time around.
But knowing Harbaugh’s penchant for knocking down accolades and instilling controlled chaos, he’ll prepare his men like they were playing a defending Super Bowl champion.
He’ll diffuse any oversight tendencies and make sure all egos are checked.
Such preparation—crazed and obsessive or not—will advance the 49ers past any trap-game defeat and to a 4-2 record on the season.
And that’s a good thing—the Red and Gold continue their road march into Denver with a battle against the soon-to-be 4-1 Broncos in Week 7.
All team and player statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, ESPN and NFL.com. Advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16
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