Detroit Tigers: State of Franchise at the Start of the 2014-15 Offseason

It was a season that had promised so much for the Detroit Tigers. A 27-12 record on May 18 marked them as MLB’s team to beat. But after posting as many losses as wins afterwards (63-63) the Motor City’s No. 1 vehicle eventually crashed. The crestfallen Tigers now face a longer-than-normal offseason to stew it all over.

There will be much to contemplate, too. Not only has a World Series title eluded them again, but they are also showing signs of regression. An ALDS exit is their worst finish to a season since missing the playoffs back in 2010.

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Looking ahead, the Tigers have several major causes for concern. Some of their biggest contributors during the past few years are now free agents. Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter are just some of their stars who may be packing their bags this offseason.

Also, Detroit’s bullpen has continued to be the team’s kryptonite and needs further addressing. Added to this is the concerning performance drop-off of their two biggest investments: Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera. 

With all of these issues in mind, the question now begs: Has Detroit lost its best chance of winning a World Series?

Time will be the judge on that, but an affirmative is definitely plausible. In recent years they have had the benefit of competing in arguably the AL’s weakest division. This could be about to change.

The Royals are now on par with the Tigers, and the Indians are also closing the gap. The White Sox showed signs of emerging this year as well.

With a tightening division and more parity in the game in general, a stamped ticket to the postseason may not be guaranteed for Detroit in upcoming seasons.

Speaking of which, sorting out next season’s opening-day roster will be their first priority. Scherzer has already turned down a substantial offer and appears destined for new pastures. The prospect of retaining Martinez is more promising, but the Tigers will have plenty of competition for his signature. Hunter is unsure about his future as a MLB player let alone his future in a Detroit uniform.

Other players to hit the market include Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain, while the team has a one-year option on Joakim Soria.

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The rest of the positions appear stable. Catcher, center and left field, as well as all infield spots should be filled by their incumbents. The return of Jose Iglesias provides the team with an excess at shortstop and could lead to him or Eugenio Suarez being traded.

The Tigers do have emerging talent to plug holes at some positions. Youngsters Robbie Ray, Buck Farmer, Kyle Ryan and Kyle Lobstein will compete for the fifth starter position if Scherzer departs. Finding solutions at designated hitter and/or right field could be more problematic, especially if prospect Steven Moya is not ready to step up.

The bullpen quagmire remains the team’s biggest concern. It is arguable that Detroit’s relievers have cost them a chance of title glory again this year. ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian, speaking on the Baseball Tonight Podcast, certainly thinks so:

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The reason they have lost three consecutive postseasons is their bullpen. They got out-pitched two years ago. They got out-pitched last year, and this year in the first two games in that series against the Orioles their bullpen gave up 12 runs in the eighth inning alone. it’s just unacceptable and they are going to have to start all over to rebuild that. They have a lot of work to do.

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On a more positive note, there may be help on the way. Flame-throwing prospects Jose Valdez and Angel Nesbitt could be ready for major league duty out of the ‘pen in 2015.

Bruce Rondon should also return after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Hopes will be high that he can get back on track for usurping Joe Nathan as closer.

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Scouring the free-agent market for relievers is another solution. However, general manager/president Dave Dombrowski seems to have lost his mojo in that realm.

This season’s big-name acquisitions Nathan and Soria fell well short of expectations. Chamberlain was also ineffective down the stretch after a great first half. Additionally, two of the franchise’s brightest relief pitching prospects—Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel—were both traded away to get Soria.

But with voids to fill and upgrades to make, expect Detroit to remain active on the market. But just how willing is owner Mike Ilitch to keep investing in his team?

Detroit’s already swollen payroll may have left very little in the kitty. And worryingly, those who are making the big bucks are showing signs of decline.

According to Fan Graphs, in 2014 Verlander recorded the lowest WAR (3.3) since his rookie season. His ERA (4.54) was also well below the league average for starting pitchers (3.92). These are not the sort of numbers you would expect from one of the game’s highest-paid players. Just for the record, the righty is owed $140 million over the next five years.

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Cabrera is probably of less concern, but his injuries—including bone spurs and core issues—are beginning to mount. These will only increase with age, and Cabrera will be around for a while—the Venezuelan is owed a whopping $248 million through the 2022 season.

Detroit has the safety net of placing Cabrera at DH at some point. However, this would be impractical in the short-medium term if Martinez is resigned.

What about the situation in a few years’ time?

The Tigers’ system looks average at best. There are some good prospects, but fans will need to be patient. In addition to the aforementioned up-and-comers, the best of the rest appear to be several seasons away.

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Starting pitchers Austin Kubitza and Kevin Ziomek and outfielder Derek Hill are still in single-A ball or lower. Another top prospect, Devon Travis, is closer to the big club but his transition from second to base to center field may take time.

Despite their flaws, the Tigers should remain a competitive team for the foreseeable future. The amount of talent and spending power at their disposal will ensure this. But some unsolved issues, as well as stiffer competition, won’t make matters any easier for them. If anything, things will only get harder.

All stats in this article are courtesy of FanGraphs.

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