New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: Complete Week 6 Preview for New England
Though early-season trends often reveal little about most NFL teams, the New England Patriots have arguably been the league's most enigmatic team through five weeks. Assertions about their demise have alternated with convictions about their viability, and with a 3-2 record, the Patriots' season could still swing in myriad different directions.
This week will test if the status quo has truly returned to Foxborough. The Buffalo Bills have been the Patriots' AFC East whipping boys for the past 13 years, but Orchard Park has never harbored this level of optimism over that time. With new ownership in place, the revitalized Bills have surged to a 3-2 start, making Sunday's contest a battle for early control of the division.
Even with a larger talent disparity in recent seasons, the Pats have had trouble in Buffalo's frenzied home atmosphere, as they have trailed in the second half in each of their past three games at Ralph Wilson Stadium. With the gap ostensibly smaller this season, it is clear that New England is far from a sure bet to notch its fourth win, despite its decade-long dominance over Buffalo.
Emotion carried the Patriots to their most impressive win of the season last week, but the tables will be turned in Week 6, as New England is entering a hornet's nest. For the Pats to emerge unscathed, here are the factors that must turn in their favor on Sunday.
Patriots Week 5 Recap
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Regular-season wins have not held much lasting significance around Foxborough over the past decade. Nonetheless, considering the unprecedented turmoil and doubts surrounding the Patriots leading up to week 5, New England's reassuring demolition of the Cincinnati Bengals stands out as one of the most satisfying regular-season victories of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era.
The Patriots completely revamped their offense, mixing in more Ace/12 and Tank/22 personnel at a faster no-huddle pace. The end result was an uber-efficient offense that bore a refreshing resemblance to the units from 2010-12 that created matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. Tim Wright may not be a savior, but his integration into the offense has created a plethora of play-calling possibilities.
With Kiko Alonso out for the season, the Bills do not possess the linebackers to combat New England's newfound pet personnel. For all his strengths, Brandon Spikes has been a major liability in pass coverage his entire career. Rookie Preston Brown has been promising but still has trouble diagnosing plays (as all rookies do), so Nigel Bradham might represent Buffalo's best option to combat Rob Gronkowski and Wright at the second level.
Defensively, the Patriots experienced their first rash of injuries this season, though none appears to be major. We'll touch more on the injury impact later, but a week after sufficiently controlling versatile Cincy back Giovani Bernard, expect a similar game plan against Buffalo's backfield tandem of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.
News and Notes
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Browner Struggling
Despite suspension and injuries ruining much of his 2013 season, Brandon Browner looked like an ideal fit for New England's press-man coverage scheme. However, despite finishing his four-game suspension to start the season, Browner was inactive last week against Cincinnati. According to the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe, the veteran's deactivation stemmed from his struggles in picking up the Pats defensive system:
"Cornerback Brandon Browner, who was absent from practice today, was not activated Sunday against the Bengals because he has struggled to grasp the Patriots defensive system, according to a source.
Belichick asks much more out of his cornerbacks, who have to be well-versed in the call out of the huddle and the corresponding checks at the line from the safeties and linebackers.
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Howe also includes a telling quote from ex-teammate Richard Sherman, who opined that Browner could struggle with added responsibilities. Browner played exclusively on the right side of the field in Seattle, but such a role might be incommensurate during weeks when New England game-plans for Darrelle Revis to shadow the opposition's top receivers.
Given how many corners have failed under the system's stress, one would be justified for wondering if Belichick should implement some more player-friendly concepts. The Patriots' difficulties in drafting defensive backs are well-documented, but veterans like Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden have also floundered. There's plenty of time for Browner to change the narrative, of course, but the early signs are ominous.
More Play Action?
Though the Patriots do not have the personnel to adapt a spread-and-shred passing philosophy, as they did in the late 2000s, New England is still experimenting with methods to infuse some creativity into the passing game. Play action represents the most promising possibility, and as WEEI.com's Ryan Hannable opines, it could counter Buffalo's aggressive gap-shooting run defense this Sunday:
"Their dedication to stopping the run does though make them vulnerable for one thing — play-action.
According to our count, when using play-action this season, opponents are 21-for-26 passing for 221 yards against the Bills — highlighted in Week 1 as Bears quarterback Jay Cutler was 6-for-7 for 66 yards, and then in Week 4, when Ryan Fitzpatrick of Houston was 7-for-9 for 75 yards.
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Last week, Tom Brady repeatedly utilized play action in the red zone to freeze the Bengals linebackers and create room for Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright in the intermediate seam zones. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Brady was 8-of-11 with 133 yards and a touchdown off play action last week. His 143.4 quarterback rating on such throws was second-best in the league during Week 5, trailing only Mike Glennon.
Those numbers aren't a single-week anomaly, as Brady has posted a 108.3 quarterback rating with play action this season, as opposed to a 77.2 rating without play action. If the Pats stick with the power personnel that worked so well against Cincy, expect New England to continue utilizing play action to throw Buffalo's physical yet maladroit linebackers off guard.
Pats Prep for Spikes Reunion
Brandon Spikes' first meeting against his old team has been one of the primary local media storylines this week, as the brash and garrulous linebacker experienced a publicly bitter end to his Patriots tenure. Spikes did nothing to refute those stories this week, and according to ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter, Stevan Ridley and the rest of the Pats offense are bracing for a strong showing from their ex-teammate:
"[Spikes] is going to be excited and it's going to be a little bit different. But I went up against him a lot in practice here and I know how he plays. But it's going to be exciting to get out there, talk a little bit of trash with him, because you know that he is going to be doing that.
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Oddly, however, Spikes has reversed his reputation as a prolific run-stuffer who represents a liability in coverage. Thus far, his run-stop percentage is down to 8.2 percent, which ranks only 28th among inside linebackers; however, opposing quarterbacks have posted a meager 66.1 quarterback rating on 11 targets against Spikes.
Consequently, he has received an uptick in sub-package snaps, which could keep him on the field regardless of what personnel packages the Pats float out. Despite his early-season success, however, the Pats would likely salivate at the thought of their old friend covering Rob Gronkowski in the open field.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Nate Ebner | S | Out |
| Cameron Fleming | OT/OG | Out |
| Tom Brady | QB | Questionable |
| Brandon Browner | CB | Questionable |
| Dominique Easley | DE/DT | Questionable |
| Jamie Collins | LB | Questionable |
| Dont'a Hightower | LB | Questionable |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Probable |
| Devin McCourty | S | Probable |
| Matthew Slater | ST | Questionable |
| Bryan Stork | C | Questionable |
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
Week 5 was the first time this season the Patriots have emerged from a game with somewhat significant injury concerns. Though none of these maladies look like long-term issues, there is a realistic chance the Pats could be short-handed on Sunday, particularly defensively.
Tom Brady was a new addition to the injury report on Friday, as he reportedly hurt his ankle during practice, per Howe. The issue does not appear particularly severe, but coupled with the calf issues he had earlier in the season, the injuries are starting to add up for the 37-year-old.
The front seven could be especially thin if Dont'a Hightower and Dominique Easley fail to return after missing all or large portions of last week's contest. Both provide important pass-rushing depth, while Hightower's additional versatility could be critical in helping contain Buffalo's running backs. Chandler Jones did play through his right shoulder injury last week, but it is unclear if the Pats will continue restraining him to a situational edge-rushing role.
Stork and Browner were new additions to the injury report on Thursday. We've already covered Browner's issues in picking up the defense, but Stork, who has a head injury, has demonstrated encouraging progress as the starting center. Considering that the Pats just unearthed a usable starting five along the offensive line, losing Stork this week would be a tough setback to overcome.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Interior O-Line vs. Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams
At first glance, this looks like New England's biggest disadvantage. The hulking defensive tackle duo of Dareus and Williams is arguably the best in the league, as they present an extremely physical and well-rounded interior tandem.
Among defensive tackles, both Dareus and Williams rank in the top seven in run-stop percentage, while Williams has posted the highest pass-rushing productivity at the position. Consequently, the Bills have posted the second-stingiest run defense in the league, as opponents have accrued just 71 rushing yards per game due to Buffalo's ability to sabotage the offensive line's infrastructure.
The likely starting trio of Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork and Ryan Wendell are poor matchups on paper. Mathematically, at least one of those three must block either Dareus or Williams one-on-one every play. To combat that disadvantage, look for the Patriots to try and get the line on the move, either through outside zone runs or play-action roll-outs, as New England cannot afford to allow Buffalo's defensive tackles to effortlessly collapse the pocket every play.
Darrelle Revis vs. Sammy Watkins
The Patriots appear unlikely to totally isolate Revis once again, as they did last week against A.J. Green. Most of Buffalo's wide receivers are redundant anyways, exhibiting terrific speed and open-field ability along with a limited route tree and questionable hands.
Watkins likely does not deserve the Revis Island treatment yet, but the first-rounder typically lines up on the offense's right side regardless, so he should draw plenty of assignments from New England's best corner. Much like the Dolphins did with Mike Wallace, expect the Bills to run man-beating concepts (rubs, picks, crossers, etc.) to free Watkins from Revis' grasp and allow their explosive rookie to wreak havoc in the open field.
Revis has had issues with smaller, shiftier receivers in the past (such as ex-Bill Stevie Johnson), as his speed and agility does not quite match his intelligence. Therefore, despite Revis' significant edge in pedigree and experience, this presents a more difficult matchup than one might first believe.
Offensive X-Factor: Shane Vereen
As alluded to previously, Buffalo possesses one of the league's toughest run defenses. Stevan Ridley figures to encounter difficult sledding, as the Bills have conceded a league-best 2.62 yards per carry between the tackles, per Football Outsiders.
The Patriots are not going to gain any traction on Buffalo through a fruitless series of inside zones and dives. Thus, Shane Vereen looks better suited to assume the heavy half of the New England running back platoon this week. While far from porous against receiving backs, Buffalo ranks 12th in pass defense DVOA against running backs, according to Football Outsiders.
Vereen's path to stardom has hit a snag this season, as his effectiveness as a receiver has been significantly diminished. After averaging 2.14 yards per route run last season, second among all running backs, Vereen's 1.07 mark ranks 28th out of 38 qualified backs in 2014.
Many designed screens behind the line of scrimmage have gone awry, so look for the Patriots to get Vereen on the move with angle and wheel routes. Against Buffalo's lead-footed linebacking corps, the fourth-year back has a real opportunity to build off his Week 5 performance and break out of his opening-month slump.
Defensive X-Factor: Chris Jones
Despite Kyle Orton's fourth-quarter success last week, Buffalo remains a team built to control the clock with the ground and screen game. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are therefore indispensable building blocks in this system, as they represent primary threats on any given play, regardless of personnel package.
Containing Jackson and Spiller entails a cohesive effort from all three levels of the defense, but the defensive line will set the most impactful tone as the first layer of resistance. While Vince Wilfork has regained his vintage form despite 2013's debilitating Achilles injury, fellow interior starter Chris Jones is much more of a question mark.
Jones was a huge liability against the run during his rookie campaign, but the second-year defensive tackle has made impressive strides in that department so far. After posting a 5.4 run-stop percentage in 2013, one that ranked 58th among defensive tackles, Jones has raised that mark to 7.5 percent this season, good for 22nd among 3-4 defensive ends.
Buffalo does not exactly boast strong interior protection, as rookie Cyril Richardson and converted tackle Erik Pears have experienced constant difficulties. If Jones can help Wilfork anchor the interior line, that will transfer the playmaking burden from Jackson and Spiller to Orton, which is a much more palatable situation for the New England defense.
Prediction
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Despite their recent domination over Buffalo, history is largely irrelevant in Sunday's matchup. The talent gap has narrowed, and despite issues at quarterback, steady drafting has built a fairly deep Bills squad capable of challenging for a postseason berth.
Nonetheless, the Patriots' Week 5 performance illustrated that they still possess the talent that made them consensus preseason Super Bowl contenders. New England will need to display similar execution for multiple weeks before we restore them to elite status, but there is no longer reason to believe that the Patriots are about to crumble and fall back with the rest of the AFC East morass.
The Bills present some highly problematic matchups for the Patriots, and the constant pandemonium at Ralph Wilson Stadium will test the Pats' mental fortitude when they inevitably encounter in-game adversity. Although Buffalo has virtually no track record of rising up against Brady and Belichick, this Bills team has also demonstrated that it will not self-destruct like previous renditions.
Nonetheless, if the Patriots are a reasonable facsimile of what they showed against Cincinnati, they are clearly the better team. A slight regression in performance is inevitable, but do not expect New England to revert to its slipshod ways of the opening month.
Prediction: Patriots 26, Bills 18
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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