Bowl Predictions 2014: College Football Playoff Outlook Heading into Week 7
The College Football Playoff was supposed to take some level of urgency away from the regular season. Four teams getting to the end of the season undefeated was an impossible expectation, but a clear enough hierarchy should be formed that we have a general idea of what to expect.
Week 6 changed everything. Desperation is again a way of life around the nation, as a cascade of upsets threw the backs of supposed championship contenders against the wall. Oregon, Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas A&M all went down in a blaze of whatever antonym you'd like to use for glory. Not for nothing, but those were four of the nation's top six teams.
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What's left is a quartet of teams desperately clinging to the hope the teams above them will share a similar fate, while their replacements try to avoid just that. Given that three of the top four teams in the Associated Press poll reside in the daunting SEC West, well, good luck with that one.
Given that two of said teams play each other Saturday, all sorts of heck and hootenanny are sure to transpire. With that in mind, now is as good a time as any to take a look at the Top Four. You know, before the inevitable changes to next week's Top Four.
1. Florida State
Ahh, Florida State. The 25 percenter who does not reside within the world's most competitive football division. And the one who has looked by far the worst among the teams currently slated for the inaugural CFB playoff.
The Seminoles, after having not allowed a game to come closer than 14 points during the 2013 regular season, already have two one-touchdown wins under their belt in 2014. Their win against North Carolina State required a 17-point comeback, and they were down double digits until five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Even last week's 43-3 shellacking of Wake Forest featured a miserable first half highlighted by a mistake-prone and stagnant offense.
"I've got to get us going, I've got to get us started fast. At the end of the day, that's what we've got that defense for. Sometimes they've got to have our backs. Sometimes we've got to have their back. At the end of the day when Florida State starts playing Florida State football and defense and offense is all on the same cylinder, we're going to be fun to watch.
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Winston, in theory, is correct. On balance, the Seminoles are the most talented team in the country. That's why they were ranked No. 1 coming into the season and partially why they're still atop the standings despite looking less dominant than nearly every other power-five unbeaten.
Florida State has another muscle-flexing game coming up this week against Syracuse, but it's hard to not start looking ahead to its Oct. 18 clash with Notre Dame. The Irish, like their co-unbeaten, have gotten by with a series of solid, non-dominant wins. Their first four games were a cupcake-mashing party—yes, Michigan in its current form is a cupcake—and last week's home win over Stanford required fourth-down heroics from Everett Golson.
In 2012, many pointed to Notre Dame's dominant win over Wisconsin as the tipping point. It was the time when everyone realized that this wasn't just a flukish, nice little run they were having—that they would have a legit shot at a national championship.
The same storyline will carry over into this Florida State-Notre Dame matchup. For both teams. Florida State's toughest game after the Irish, before a potential ACC Championship Game, is against a below-average Louisville team Oct. 30. Notre Dame travels to Arizona State on Nov. 8.
All else should be smooth sailing for both teams. Two weeks from now, we may have our first playoff "lock."
2. Auburn and 3. Mississippi State
It only makes sense to write about these two teams in a pair. One will probably usurp Florida State as the No. 1 team in the country next week. The other will become a pit of SEC boa constrictors waiting to strangle the life from their playoff hopes.
Not that this game is a big deal or anything.
Auburn and Mississippi State each come into Saturday's showdown at Davis Wade Stadium after their most impressive wins of the season. The Tigers systematically picked apart LSU in a 41-7 blowout that was somehow worse than the final score. Nick Marshall accounted for four touchdowns as LSU imploded on both sides of the ball.
Dan Mullen's Bulldogs had exposed Les Miles and Co. two weeks earlier, but their real arrival came last Saturday when they invited Texas A&M into their house just to steal Kenny Hill's lunch money. The Aggies quarterback threw three interceptions and looked out of sorts before cobbling together two garbage-time touchdowns to make his stats look better in the 48-31 loss.
Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott, meanwhile, established himself (in my mind) as the clear Heisman favorite. Prescott threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns while adding 77 yards and three scores on the ground. The words "Tim" and "Tebow" were strung together at numerous points on the broadcast, both a nod to Mullen's roots as a Florida offensive coordinator and Prescott's unique brilliance.
Auburn defensive tackle Gabe Wright told reporters:
"He puts a tremendous amount of pressure on you. He is a dual-threat quarterback and just saying that, I think that in itself already speaks volumes. Dual-threat means he can both run and pass. And he's mentally capable to run their offense now. I think he's more comfortable now.
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The implications here are obviously huge. But Mississippi State especially can confirm its title hopes with a win. Visits to Alabama and Ole Miss are the only two remaining games against ranked opponents on its regular-season schedule. Sure, OK, that's hard as hell. It's also par for the course for an SEC team and much easier than the outlook for its opponent.
Auburn still has games with Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama remaining after Saturday. Even South Carolina could give the Tigers trouble if Steve Spurrier can somehow salvage his team's morale.
Good Lord, the SEC is good.
4. Ole Miss
The Rebels' prize for breaking their 10-game losing streak against Alabama is a trip to College Station. Not exactly as cool as, say, a piece of a goalpost.
It's the second straight major test for the Ole Miss defense, which came up huge in high-priority situations against the Crimson Tide. Senquez Golson's last-minute interception of Blake Sims on what looked like an Alabama steamroll down the field proved the clincher, but it's far from the only factor. The Rebels held Alabama to a 6-of-16 conversion rate on third down, committed three penalties to the Tide's eight and had Bo Wallace somehow avoid throwing an interception.
Wallace avoiding interceptions has become an increasingly rare occurrence. He's given away at least one pass in all but two games this season and seven of his last 10 dating back to 2013. The senior has long been very good when he's making the right decision; he at times is very bad at doing such a thing.
With Ole Miss' run attack essentially consigned to change-of-pace status, Hugh Freeze's team is essentially an updated version of the classic SEC model. Bigger, stronger, faster than any team defensively. Air-based and high-variance offensively. It's a model that can make the Rebels look like the nation's best team when all is running smoothly—or veer them off a cliff the moment Wallace or the defense shows a sign of weakness.
Hill, a Heisman candidate before last week's debacle, is as equipped as any quarterback to make the latter happen. Texas A&M opening drives are a thing of beauty. No coach in the nation is better at drawing up an opening script than Kevin Sumlin, as evidenced by the Aggies scoring first in 29 of their last 32 games. Sumlin is going to give NFL defensive coordinators nightmares next year if he ever decides to head to Sundays.
Ole Miss has scored first in all five games this season. Its comeback from a 14-3 deficit last week against Alabama gives me faith Wallace has matured enough to handle the pressure, but the 12th man can cause the walls to close in awfully fast. The winner of this game may be determined by which side gets on the board first.
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