Clayton Kershaw Will Face Biggest Postseason Test on Short Rest in NLDS Game 4

If Clayton Kershaw wants to add a signature postseason performance to a career résumé that could use one, Tuesday in St. Louis would be a good time and place to get it.

It's just not going to be easy. 

First, know that there's been a change of plans for Game 4 of the National League Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals. The Dodgers were slated to start veteran right-hander Dan Haren, but skipper Don Mattingly announced before Monday's Game 3 that his ace will be taking the hill at Busch Stadium instead:

On the surface, it's hard to argue with the idea. Though Haren finished strong with a 2.43 ERA in his last 10 starts, Kershaw spent the season building an ironclad case for both the NL Cy Young and MVP with a 21-3 record and 1.77 ERA. Mattingly might as well be swapping out Pete Best for Ringo Starr.

The result of Game 3 makes it even harder to argue. The Dodgers lost 3-1 to give St. Louis a 2-1 series advantage and put themselves on the brink of elimination. Choosing to start Kershaw could be the difference between the Dodgers going home for the winter and living to fight another day.

But then you notice the blinking red lights. 

One of those is a reminder that Kershaw contributed to the Dodgers' 10-9 loss in Game 1 by allowing eight earned runs over 6.2 innings. The other is that this happened only three days ago.

"I was ready to do it, regardless," Kershaw said, via Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. "Obviously after as bad as I pitched in Game 1, it wasn't going to be me going in there and say, 'I want the ball.' But I was definitely ready for it and definitely wanted to do it, just waiting for the opportunity."

You have to admire Kershaw's gumption, but we better have a serious chat about what he's getting himself into.

It's times like these that we're compelled to note that starting a pitcher on only three days of rest is always risky. Especially, it seems, in the postseason.

That's because there's a sizable element of truth to that.

When I went looking last year, I found that the recent history (since 2000) of starters making October starts on only three days' rest is checkered at best. The 54 I looked at combined for a 4.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Only one start on three days' rest happened after my little look-see, and it saw Lance Lynn allow nine baserunners in less than six innings.

Of course, Kershaw's personal history makes things look better. He made his first career start on three days' rest against the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of last year's NLDS, and he allowed only three hits and no earned runs in six innings to pace the Dodgers to what was eventually a series-clinching victory.

This said, it's noteworthy that Kershaw didn't have the same velocity in that game that he did in his first start of the series in Game 1. Per Brooks Baseball:

Split	Fastball	Slider	Curveball
Game 1	94.4	86.6	75.1
Game 4	93.5	85.9	74.8

Kershaw didn't lose much off his curveball, but he lost more than half a mile per hour off of his slider. It looks even worse that he lost nearly a full mile per hour off his fastball. Especially knowing that, for whatever reason, he's gone to his heat more with two strikes in the postseason the past two years than he has in the regular season.

So, no, the stuff outlook isn't good.

Also, Bloom brought up a good point in mentioning that the circumstances of the matchup aren't the same:

"

Kershaw opened that series at Atlanta by pitching seven innings of one-run, three-hit ball as the Dodgers earned a 6-1 win in Game 1. Just this past Friday night, Kershaw sailed into the seventh inning with a four-run lead, having allowed two hits and two runs on a pair of solo homers. The Cardinals scored eight times in the seventh and now Kershaw has allowed 15 earned runs in consecutive postseason starts against St. Louis...

"

You can dig a little deeper and discover that Kershaw has a 3.46 ERA in 14 regular-season starts against the Cardinals, his highest for any team against whom he's made at least 10 starts. 

Even more to the point—personal-matchup histories only hold so much weight in an age of extreme roster turnover—is how this year's Cardinals offense is not the same as last year's Braves offense in one very important consideration.

With what was, according to FanGraphs, the highest strikeout rate in the National League, the 2013 Braves weren't a good matchup for a power pitcher like Kershaw. And yes, even with diminished stuff, the guy is still nasty enough to qualify as a power pitcher. As such, him taking care of the Braves was no surprise.

These Cardinals, however, aren't the same animal.

After finishing with the second-lowest strikeout rate in the National League last year, they finished with the lowest strikeout rate in the NL this year. On a related note, their hitters saw the most pitches per plate appearance of the four NLDS squads.

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

In other words, this Cardinals offense can put together good at-bats with the best of 'em.

I personally figured that the Cardinals' collective mediocrity against first-pitch fastballs—one of Kershaw's few weaknesses in the regular season—would be their undoing against Kershaw, but so much for that. Especially in Kershaw's nightmare seventh inning, Cardinals hitters were able to put together some really good at-bats. The Matt Carpenter at-bat that chased Kershaw, in particular, was excellent.

And now Kershaw is looking at facing this same offense with what will very likely be diminished stuff thanks to his short rest. We should also reiterate that he'll be on the road, which is the cherry on top.

This is not to suggest that Kershaw can't handle it, if for no other reason than you have to be some kind of silly to doubt his ability to do anything. There's also MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch report that the Cardinals are sticking with Shelby Miller for Game 4, so Kershaw won't be up against Adam Wainwright again.

And who knows? Maybe Mike Axisa of CBSSports.com will be right in thinking that missing April with an injury means Kershaw is "ostensibly fresher right now than he usually is in October."

Even still, there's no way to look at Kershaw's Game 4 start as anything other than the biggest postseason test he's faced to this point in his career. He'll be taking the mound on short rest against a formidable foe on the road, all with the Dodgers' season on the line. That's an assignment that could very well break him.

Either that, or it will be the latest and arguably loudest signal yet that he really is the best.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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