Is Mike Trout to Blame for Angels' Shocking ALDS Washout?

Already baseball's top talent, Mike Trout's first postseason was his shot to cement himself as the game's biggest star. A good start would be leading his Los Angeles Angels over the Kansas City Royals in the American League Division Series.

Instead, here we are in the wake of a Royals sweep with our blame-throwers fixed firmly on Trout. Is he the reason baseball's winningest team went out with a whimper at the hands of a band of upstarts?

Well, put it this way: Trout may be the easiest player to blame for the Angels getting swept, but putting it all on him is a little too easy.

Mind you, the case against Trout isn't a weak one. In fact, it's strong enough to be acknowledged.

After hitting .287 with a .939 OPS, 36 home runs and, according to FanGraphs, an MLB-best 7.8 WAR, Trout's 1-for-12 showing in the ALDS was definitely a disappointment. Also, FanGraphs says his win probability added for the series was minus-0.16.

In plain English: He did more harm than good to the Angels' win expectancy.

More specifically, there's what happened with Trout in Games 1 and 2 in Anaheim.

Trout came to the plate 10 times in the first two games and came away with zero hits and two walks. He also batted with a runner on base six times. That he didn't capitalize on those chances looks significant knowing that the Angels lost tight ones in 11 innings in both games: 3-2 in Game 1 and 4-1 in Game 2.

Let's also not forget that Trout hurt the Angels with his defense in Game 1 when he lost this Alex Gordon line drive into the left-center gap in the lights:

"I had a bead on it and thought I could catch it, I just didn't see it," Trout told Quinn Roberts of MLB.com. "It tailed away from me. I'm just happy I kept it in front of me."

In truth, Trout barely kept the ball in front of him. That lunge he made bought Gordon extra time, which helped him turn what should have been a single into a double. A few moments later, he scampered home on a sacrifice fly to snap a 1-1 tie.

Between that crucial miscue and his lack of offensive production, there's an argument to be made that Trout cost the Angels Game 1. He was less of a goat in Game 2, but his second straight 0-fer did play a part in extending the game to a point where Eric Hosmer could go boom.

Such is the case against Trout. If you hold superstar players to an even higher standard come playoff time, then this is the case for you.

But now let's get into why it's not entirely fair to put the blame all on Trout, which is a discussion that we can start off with a bang:

That was the solo blast that Trout hit off of James Shields in the first inning of Game 3. Beyond giving the Angels their first lead of the series, it dropped Kansas City's win expectancy from 52.1 to 41.4 before the Royals had even taken their turn at bat.

In other words: After two disappointing games in Anaheim, that was Trout being himself and giving the Angels the boost they'd been waiting for.

And they wasted it.

The unraveling began when C.J. Wilson squandered his 1-0 lead by spotting the Royals three runs on a three-run double by Gordon. That chased Wilson from the game and put the task of keeping the Royals off the board in the hands of the Angels bullpen.

That didn't pan out, as seven relievers combined to allow five more runs. Those runs effectively killed the Angels' chances at a comeback and sealed a series in which the Angels bullpen was no match for Kansas City's. While Angels relievers racked up a 4.47 ERA, Royals relievers pitched to a 0.75 ERA.

So if you're going to call Trout a goat, you also have to call Wilson and the Angels bullpen goats. Only fair.

While you're at it, you should note that Trout actually wasn't the biggest goat in the Angels lineup in Game 1 or Game 2 as far as win probability added is concerned:

Game 1 Batter	AB	H	BB	WPA
Game 2 Batter	AB	H	BB	WPA
Mike Trout	4	0	1	-0.14
Albert Pujols	4	0	1	-0.15
Josh Hamilton	5	0	0	-0.24
Howie Kendrick	5	0	0	-0.25
Mike Trout	4	0	1	-0.13
David Freese	3	0	1	-0.14
Josh Hamilton	4	0	0	-0.24
Chris Iannetta	4	0	0	-0.27

Did Trout hurt the Angels' win expectancy in Games 1 and 2? Yes, he did.

But in both games, there were three hitters who hurt the Angels' win expectancy more than he did. Though he was a goat in both games, it's at least arguable that he was the biggest goat in neither game.

Granted, here's where you can argue that it's a cop-out to lump Trout in with the lesser hitters in the Angels lineup—which, considering Trout's talent, is all of them. He's the best guy they have, so he's the guy who's supposed to come through.

But on this note, here's a thought: Rather than blaming Trout for not coming through, it actually makes more sense to credit the Royals for ensuring he couldn't.

As good as Trout was in the regular season, it's an open secret that he had some glaring weaknesses at the plate.

According to Brooks Baseball, Trout hit over .330 against both breaking and off-speed and only .261 against hard stuff. Also according to Brooks Baseball, the only spots in the strike zone in which he hit over .400 were right down the middle and on the inner two-thirds at the knees.

The Royals thus should have entered the ALDS with a game plan to feed Trout hard stuff and stay away from his danger zones.

And they did just that.

Beyond throwing Trout just 10 slow pitches alongside 52 fastballs, Royals pitchers were careful about avoiding his hot zones:

Image courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net (h/t Baseball Prospectus)

Trout did get some pitches to hit in his wheelhouse. But for the most part, Royals pitchers forced him to find success in areas where he didn't find much success in the regular season.

As ESPN Stats & Info's Mark Simon noted, they did so right down to the last pitch Trout saw in the series:

It would be a lot easier to blame Trout for losing the ALDS if Royals pitchers had fed him a steady diet of slow stuff while also consistently straying into his regular-season comfort zone. If that was the case, Trout would be guilty of not executing what had worked for him all season and, thus, legitimately choking.

But that's not the case. Rather than Trout not executing, what really happened was that the Royals pitchers executed. They knew how Trout could beat them, and they gave him very few chances to do so.

For that matter, the Royals executing in the ALDS goes beyond just how they pitched to Trout. In addition to pitching better than the Angels, the Royals also hit the ball and caught the ball better. Particularly when their bats went off in Game 3 and when Lorenzo Cain and Norichika Aoki stole the show in Game 2.

Or, if you prefer the short version: The Royals were the better baseball team for three games.

That right there should be the storyline of what just happened between the Angels and Royals in the ALDS. Trout's disappointing series should be more of a subplot.

He was a reason the Angels didn't win, not the reason.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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