College Football Teams Who Are Fool's Gold in Race for Playoff

The chaos of Week 6 created a new pecking order in the world of college football, a hierarchy where Ole Miss and Mississippi State are tied at No. 3 in the Associated Press Poll, and TCU and Arizona are considered Top 10 teams.

But how much can these en vogue contenders be trusted? Which teams are legitimate threats to make the College Football Playoff, and which ones are just flavors of the week?

In order to be "Fool's Gold," one must first be considered "Gold," which helped narrow down the requirements for this list. In order to be included, a team had to be ranked inside the current AP Top 15.

From there, a judgement was made on their playoff chances based on talent, performance, sustainability and upcoming schedule. The five teams included are the ones whose participation in the playoff would come as the biggest surprise (albeit subjectively).

They might look like contenders today, but the season is still less than halfway over. Not all that glitters is gold.

Arizona

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Arizona entered Week 6 ranked No. 42 in the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders. It is assured to make a big jump after winning at Oregon—which entered the week ranked No. 2—but there's a reason it placed outside the Top 40 with a 4-0 record in the first place.

If not for a Hail Mary as time expired against Cal on Sept. 20, the Wildcats would have lost on their home field. Had that happened, Sonny Dykes' Bears would be the 5-0 team we were whispering about as a playoff contender, and Arizona would be sneaking into the Top 25.

But how much did that Hail Mary really change Arizona's outlook?

Arizona also played one-score games against UTSA and Nevada, beating the Roadrunners by three in San Antonio and the Wolfpack by seven in Tucson. Neither of those results is damning—UTSA and Nevada are both in the 90th percentile for non-power-conference opponents—but they also don't portend a national title run.

Anu Solomon has been solid at quarterback, but he's a long way from being a Johnny Manziel- or Jameis Winston-type redshirt freshman. He is very good but a tier or two away from being great.

Same goes for the team that he quarterbacks.

Georgia

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Here are three things that have happened so far this season:

1. Alabama's offense gained 645 yards against Florida.
2. Tennessee's offense gained 233 yards against Florida.
3. Tennessee's offense gained 401 yards against Georgia.

See what I'm trying to get at?

The same Tennessee offense that went stale against Florida's defense in Knoxville gained more than 400 yards against Georgia's defense in Athens. And it did all that despite a mid-game injury to quarterback Justin Worley that severely affected the outcome of the game. Had Worley played all 60 minutes, the Vols could have easily won.

Since the Tennessee game, Georgia has dismissed three players from its already rail-thin secondary. The unit performed well against Vanderbilt last week, but it won't be playing Vanderbilt from here on out. Commodores quarterback Stephen Rivers could make a lot of secondaries look good.

Georgia running back Todd Gurley is as great as everyone says he is, and the SEC East is as bad as everyone says it is. But Hutson Mason is not a playoff-caliber quarterback, and Georgia's secondary is not a playoff-caliber secondary. If the forward pass was still illegal, this team would be a rightful inclusion in the Top Five. It can run and stop the run with anybody. Unfortunately, that isn't enough.

Notre Dame

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Notre Dame's defense has been one of the best stories of the season. Despite the suspension of its best cornerback, KeiVarae Russell, it was able to hold Michigan scoreless in Week 2 and Stanford to 3.0 yards per play in Week 6. Pretty impressive stuff.

But how much does that all really mean?

Michigan failed to score an offensive touchdown against Utah, too, and only averaged 3.2 yards per play against Minnesota. Stanford scored 30 points against USC and Washington combined. 

The Utes and Gophers both held Michigan to less yards per play than Notre Dame. The Trojans and Huskies both held Stanford to fewer points than Notre Dame.

The Irish have been impressive through six weeks, but it's still hard to buy this team as a national title contender. Along with Russell, projected No. 1 receiver DaVaris Daniels and three other players are still sitting on the shelf during the academic probe. Eventually, those losses are going to come to roost.

They have to.

With road games at Florida State, Navy, Arizona State and USC and home games against Louisville and Northwestern still on the schedule, there won't be much margin for error for a team that needed a wild 4th-and-11 touchdown against Stanford to survive Week 6 undefeated.

Is Notre Dame good enough to finish 11-1? Probably. And if it does, there's a very high chance it makes the playoff.

I just still wouldn't bank on it happening.

Ole Miss

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Ole Miss proved Saturday that it can play like a playoff-worthy team for 60 minutes. There is no other way to beat Alabama.

But the biggest question with this team has never been whether it can look playoff-worthy for 60 minutes. One glance up and down the roster tells you all you need to know. The biggest question with this team is whether it can look playoff-worthy for 13 consecutive games.

And on that point, the jury is out.

Quarterback Bo Wallace played his best game of the season (and maybe his career) against the Crimson Tide, but that doesn't erase the reservations people had about "Bad Bo" coming in. Sixty minutes of Jekyll does not mean the expungement of Hyde. Wallace still has the potential to throw his team out of the game any week.

A lot will be learned about Ole Miss in the coming few weeks when it plays at Texas A&M and LSU and at home against Tennessee. None of those teams is as good as Alabama, but all three are better than Boise State and Memphis—the group-of-five opponents that Ole Miss struggled to put away thanks to Wallace's turnovers.

Great teams don't just beat other great teams; they handily beat the less-than-great teams. If the Rebels head to Baton Rouge undefeated, it will be a lot easier to buy their stock.

Texas A&M

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Texas A&M blew out South Carolina in Week 1 and then rode the strength of that win to the top of the public esteem. But the Gamecocks just lost to Kentucky, prompting head coach Steve Spurrier to say: "We have to find a way to try to have a winning season. That's where we are now.…It is what it is," per Josh Kendall of The State.

To wit, the Aggies' biggest win of the season came over a team that is playing just to make a bowl game. Their second-biggest win required a last-minute touchdown pass to send the game into overtime against Arkansas. And they just allowed Mississippi State to go on a 48-10 run in the middle of its first loss of the season.

The feather in their cap is starting to wilt.

Texas A&M is not a bad team by any measure. It wouldn't be a shock to see it beat Ole Miss this weekend. Kevin Sumlin's offense is good enough to manufacture points against the Rebels, and Kyle Field is loud enough to coax Bo Wallace into multiple interceptions.

But the Aggies' remaining schedule still includes road games at Alabama and Auburn, which makes it difficult to see anything better than a 9-3 regular-season finish. And that would not be enough to make the playoff.