Rams vs. Eagles: Complete Week 5 Preview for Philadelphia
Four weeks into the season, the Philadelphia Eagles are 3-1 and tied for first place in the NFC East. The team is on pace for a franchise-record 488 points, the defense has already scored multiple touchdowns and Chip Kelly has arguably the best special teams unit in the game.
But there’s serious concern in Philly following last Sunday’s heartbreaking 26-21 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
Nick Foles drove the offense within one yard of a win, but failed attempts on both third and fourth down resulted in the Eagles’ first loss of the season. LeSean McCoy again couldn't find any room to run, and the defense is still missing playmaking linebacker Mychal Kendricks.
That sets the stage for a Week 5 matchup playing host to the St. Louis Rams.
"Eagles host the St. Louis Rams next week. Eagles have won 6 straight regular season games at home
— Jeff Skversky (@JeffSkversky) September 29, 2014"
The Rams are getting surprisingly impressive play from Austin Davis, a former undrafted free agent who entered the season as the third-string quarterback. The Eagles will need a rebound performance from Foles and a breakout performance from struggling All-Pro McCoy.
Here’s all you need to know about this upcoming Sunday’s game.
Regular-Season Week 4 Recap
1 of 5
There’s no shame in losing to the San Francisco 49ers by five points, but the way the Philadelphia Eagles lost was painful.
In reality, the game never should have been that close, but a trifecta of defensive and special teams touchdowns gave the Eagles an early lead and kept them in the game late, even as the offense struggled and the defense was on the field all day.
"Eagles' time of possession Sunday [17:43] was their lowest in 239 games, since they had the ball 16:19 Oct. 29, 2000, a 24-7 loss to Giants.
— Reuben Frank (@RoobCSN) September 30, 2014"
In all, it was Nick Foles’ worst complete game under Chip Kelly. He passed for fewer than 200 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions, and he missed a slew of makeable throws. The running game was nonexistent behind a porous offensive line.
Despite the defense getting impressive pressure on Colin Kaepernick, the Niners still rolled up over 400 yards on offense. The deciding factor was the turnover battle, as San Francisco won that category by three, and that’s a sizable margin.
News and Notes
2 of 5
The Return of Right Tackle Lane Johnson
The Philadelphia Eagles will finally be getting back last year’s first-round pick, offensive tackle Lane Johnson, who was suspended for four games for violating the NFL's policy against performance-enhancing substances.
The offensive line was stretched thin without Johnson. Backup Allen Barbre is on injured reserve, and Matt Tobin missed the first several games, which meant the Eagles had to play overmatched lineman Andrew Gardner at right tackle.
Last week, guard Todd Herremans shifted over to tackle, but he’s much better at guard than on the edge. Fortunately for Johnson, he doesn’t have to face injured St. Louis Rams defensive end Chris Long in Week 5. Long's replacement, William Hayes, will be a much easier matchup.
Johnson did struggle as a pass-blocker as a rookie, surrendering 10 sacks and 39 quarterback hurries. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), only one other offensive tackle (Will Beatty) allowed comparable numbers. Still, Johnson will be an upgrade over Gardner, and he’s a fantastic run-blocker.
".@Lanejohnson65 wants to make an impact in his return: I want to go out there and be consistent, and help get the ground game going.
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 2, 2014"
Philadelphia Eagles Face Another Backup Quarterback
In recent years, Philadelphia Eagles fans have seen their team struggle to stop backup quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins threw for over 400 yards just two weeks ago. There was the infamous Joe Webb game in 2010. Matt Cassel led the Minnesota Vikings to 48 points last December. And now Austin Davis, a third-stringer who has since been named the starter for the remainder of the season, will get his chance.
Davis has performed exceptionally well this season, considering he was an undrafted free agent in 2012 and that he entered 2014 with zero pass attempts to his name.
Davis may be the next Case Keenum, in that he plays well until he’s exposed.
But he’s had a promising start thus far. Davis isn’t playing dink-and-dunk football; he’s completing over 72 percent of his passes and averaging an impressive 8.0 yards per attempt. He’s turned Brian Quick into a downfield threat, and Davis leads all qualifying quarterbacks in accuracy rate (66.7 percent) on deep passes, per Pro Football Focus.
Davis faces an Eagles defense that has gotten lit up in recent weeks; the Eagles rate 25th in scoring defense and 28th in total defense, and the secondary lacks a bona fide No. 1 corner to match up with Quick.
Tavon Austin May Return to Face Philadelphia
Both the Philadelphia Eagles and St. Louis Rams may get their first pick from the 2013 draft back. While Lane Johnson was suspended for PEDs, Tavon Austin has missed several weeks to a knee injury he suffered in Week 2.
"Meanwhile, Tavon Austin limited again in practice today. He'll be officially "questionable" for Sunday.
— TurfShowTimes (@TurfShowTimes) October 3, 2014"
Austin has been a disappointment since the Rams selected him eighth overall a year ago. He’s had his moments, namely the three-touchdown performance against the Indianapolis Colts last season, but too often he’s disappeared for long stretches.
Austin is undersized at just 5’8”, 176 pounds, and the Rams haven’t found a way to use him and make the most of his talents. Austin has played just one full game in 2014 (Week 1 against Minnesota), and he saw action in only 29 snaps.
Austin’s impact was minimal—he rushed three times for five yards, caught three passes for 34 yards and returned five punts for 24 yards. That’s 63 total yards on 11 touches, hardly the explosive abilities the Rams expected from him.
Jairus Byrd Placed On Injured Reserve
Jairus Byrd doesn’t play for the Philadelphia Eagles, so this isn’t really news for this organization. But it does show what a terrific signing general manager Howie Roseman made this offseason.
Much to the dismay of the fanbase, Roseman bypassed both Byrd and T.J. Ward in the spring and instead signed New Orleans Saints castoff Malcolm Jenkins.
It’s safe to say it has worked out pretty well.
"Malcolm Jenkins rates as the third-best safety in the NFL, per PFF. TJ Ward 45th. Jairus Byrd 67th.
— Bryn Swartz (@eaglescentral) September 29, 2014"
Jenkins has come up with an interception in three consecutive games, the last one a pick-six. That put Jenkins in great company.
"Eagles say Malcolm Jenkins first Eagles safety with INT in 3 straight games since Brian Dawkins in 2004. #Eaglestalk
— John Clark CSN (@JClarkCSN) September 28, 2014 "
Meanwhile, Byrd has been ruled out for the season after suffering a torn meniscus in practice in a non-contact drill.
"Saints HC Sean Payton announces S Jairus Byrd is out for the season after tearing his lateral meniscus in practice on Thursday.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 3, 2014 "
Considering Byrd is owed $54 million over six years, the Jenkins deal was of pretty good value to Roseman and the Eagles.
Injury Report
3 of 5
The big injury story for the Philadelphia Eagles is inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks, who will miss his third consecutive game with a calf injury.
Here is the rest of the injury report, per Sheil Kapadia of the blog, Birds 24/7.
| Position | Injury |
Mychal Kendricks | ILB | Calf (Out) |
Jason Kelce | C | Hernia (Out) |
Brandon Boykin | CB | Hamstring (Questionable) |
Earl Wolff | S | Knee (Probable) |
Trey Burton | TE | Achilles (Probable) |
Nolan Carroll | CB | Ankle (Probable) |
James Casey | TE | Knee (Probable) |
Josh Huff | WR | Shoulder (Probable) |
Brad Smith | WR | Groin (Probable) |
Matt Tobin | G/OT | Ankle (Probable) |
WR | Hamstring (Probable) |
Lane Johnson’s return certainly helps the offensive line, but the Philadelphia Eagles are still without All-Pro left guard Evan Mathis and top center, Jason Kelce. Missing Brandon Boykin would be a big blow, but it’s likely that Boykin will play.
"Brandon Boykin said he felt good today, did everything in practice. Has 2 more days to be ready, expects to play Sunday.
— Geoff Mosher (@GeoffMosherCSN) October 2, 2014"
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5
It would seem that a matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and St. Louis Rams would feature the NFL’s most potent offense against arguably the toughest defense.
That hasn’t been exactly the case, though. The Eagles didn’t score an offensive point a week ago, and the Rams have just one sack on defense, which ranks dead last among all teams. Philly’s league-leading rushing attack from 2013 is the 25th-best unit this season, but St. Louis ranks third worst in average yards allowed per rush.
To get back on track offensively, the Eagles will need quarterback Nick Foles to return to his 2013 form, or at least the form he showed in the Week 3 win over the Washington Redskins. The following matchups will be huge in determining the winner, as well as Philadelphia’s X-factor.
LT Jason Peters vs. RDE Robert Quinn
This is arguably the best offensive tackle in the game against arguably the best pure pass-rusher (outside of J.J. Watt); that makes for an incredible trenches matchup.
"For football nerds, Jason Peters vs. Robert Quinn Sunday will be fun. Eagles rarely give Peters help. Quinn almost always lines up at RDE.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) October 2, 2014"
Jason Peters is two full years removed from his Achilles tendon tear, and he’s been far and above the most pivotal Philadelphia Eagles lineman, especially given the injuries to Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce.
Peters has faced a pair of 3-4 defenses in his last two games; per Pro Football Focus, he didn’t give up a single hurry to the combination of Justin Smith and Dan Skuta last week or Jason Hatcher and Brian Orakpo the week prior against Washington.
A former college tight end, Peters may be at his best as a run-blocker, where he’s able to open holes and get to the second level with ease in the running game. Warding off All-Pro defensive end Robert Quinn will be no easy task; Quinn racked up 19 sacks last year, and he dwarfed the other 4-3 defensive ends, per PFF’s rankings.
Quinn has been unusually quiet in the sack department this season, as he’s been held without one for four games. That could be because he’s without Chris Long opposite him, and it could be just a slow start. Quinn’s most alarming stat, though has been his struggles in stopping the run, as he’s missed four tackles this season and is rated by PFF as the third-worst 4-3 end in stopping the run.
Quinn was all but blanketed by Tyron Smith two weeks ago. Smith is on track to be a once-in-a-generation pass-blocker, but it is alarming that Quinn was manhandled for 60 minutes. The edge for this goes to Peters, considering he’s been playing better than Quinn, and he’s efficient as both a pass-blocker and run-blocker.
RB LeSean McCoy vs. St. Louis Front Seven
LeSean McCoy’s struggles this season are becoming scary, as he’s now been held to just 39 rushing yards over his last two games.
"2009 was the last season LeSean McCoy had 5 straight games rushing under 80 yards. The Eagles play the Rams who are ranked 30th in defense.
— Brandon Kravitz (@BrandonKravitz) October 1, 2014 "
Fortunately for McCoy, he gets a St. Louis Rams’ front seven that has surprisingly been torched by the run all season.
The Minnesota Vikings rushed for 185 yards against the Rams in Week 1, highlighted by Cordarrelle Patterson’s 102-yard effort on end-arounds (the first 100-yard rushing game ever by a wide receiver in modern NFL history). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got 144 yards from Bobby Rainey in Week 2, and 2014's league-leading rusher, DeMarco Murray, rolled up 100 yards in a Week 3 matchup.
Every team to face the Rams this season has had a 100-yard rusher, so this may be just the medicine McCoy needs to kick-start his 2014 campaign. Veteran middle linebacker James Laurinaitis is rated by PFF as the second-worst player against the run at his position. The same goes for outside linebacker Alec Ogletree. Defensive backs Janoris Jenkins, T.J. McDonald and Rodney McLeod all have at least four missed tackles already.
If McCoy can’t break out against this team, it may not happen for a while.
TE Zach Ertz vs. OLB Alec Ogletree & S T.J. McDonald
The Philadelphia Eagles’ usage of tight end Zach Ertz this season has been confusing: The second-year player was touted all offseason as a potential breakout candidate, and he opened the season with three receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown, and then four catches for 86 yards.
Since then, Ertz has struggled immensely, and he’s seen his snap count drop as well. Ertz has just 57 total yards and a lost fumble the last two weeks combined, and he’s been particularly poor in pass protection.
The St. Louis Rams have an interesting pass defense—they’ve seen the fewest passing attempts (largely due to that run defense), and they’re third in passing yards allowed. Yet they’re 29th in passer rating allowed, 30th in average net yards allowed per passing attempt and 30th in scoring defense (all stats per Pro Football Reference). Even more strangely, the Rams have permitted just 10 receptions to opposing tight ends, which is the lowest total in the league.
Ertz is eighth among tight ends in receiving yards, but he’s just 15th in targets and 16th in catches. That’s because he’s averaging an impressive 16.9 yards per reception, meaning when Ertz does catch the ball, it typically goes for big yardage.
Against Jason Witten two weeks ago, the Rams employed a variety of methods in trying to stop the All-Pro tight end. Alec Ogletree was in coverage for two attempts, JoLonn Dunbar once, James Laurinaitis once and T.J. McDonald once. The previous week, Brandon Myers was targeted twice—Ogletree and McDonald were each in coverage once.
Logically, it seems that Ogletree and McDonald will match up against Ertz, and that’s a clear advantage for the young tight end. Chip Kelly excels in finding ways to exploit one-on-one matchups, and Ertz is a definitive mismatch nightmare for any one linebacker or safety. Ogletree, in particular, has struggled in pass coverage; PFF's sabermetrics show he’s allowed a completion on the last 17 pass attempts in his coverage area and a ridiculous 85 percent for his career.
McDonald is 70th among 86 safeties in passer rating allowed (115.4). He’s 6’2”, 219 pounds, which is big for a safety, but a solid three inches and 30 pounds lighter than Ertz.
If Foles has an accurate day, the Eagles will win this matchup.
X-Factor: Lane Johnson
Perhaps it’s unique to put an offensive tackle as the X-factor, but that’s how vital the return of Lane Johnson is to this football club.
The Philadelphia Eagles experimented with Allen Barbre (injured reserve), Todd Herremans (back to guard) and Andrew Gardner (benched) at right tackle, but none of them are the athlete Johnson is.
Johnson’s physical tools are impressive. Johnson is Chip Kelly’s kind of lineman; he was Kelly’s first-ever draft pick. He runs a 4.72 40-yard dash, and he was rated by Pro Football Focus as the ninth-best run-blocking offensive tackle in the league (among 76 qualifiers). Johnson will upgrade a line that has struggled all season to open up holes, and he will be vital in helping LeSean McCoy return to the form he displayed in 2013.
He may be rusty considering it’s his first game back, but getting downfield to block a linebacker should be a lot easier than warding off a pass-rusher. A fine performance as a run-blocker is just what the Eagles need from Johnson.
Prediction
5 of 5
All signs point to a win for the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re the better team on offense, and the normally stout St. Louis Rams defense isn’t the scary unit many expected it to be.
Austin Davis has played impressive football this season, while Nick Foles has struggled, but those two trends can’t possibly continue, can they?
The Eagles should win most of the game’s matchups—Jeremy Maclin is playing the best football of his career, Jordan Matthews gets a winnable matchup against the 5’8” rookie corner/safety LaMarcus Joyner and LeSean McCoy should finally break through.
The key will be Philadelphia’s ability to keep Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald out of the backfield. Special teams should be a big factor, as Philly has gotten almost unsustainably tremendous performances from the units this season. With the Eagles being at home and coming off a loss, there’s really no excuse for Foles and Chip Kelly to lose this one.
And they won’t.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Rams 16
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
