NBA Preseason 2014: Predicting Top Storylines for Upcoming Exhibition Season
The NBA preseason, like MLB spring training and the NFL's four-game snoozefest, is meaningful only in what you can take away. The injuries are real, as is the importance of developing an on-court chemistry and getting your legs loose.
November basketball is never as good as May, but it'd be a whole lot worse if it weren't for October.
More than any other sport, preseason basketball is partially representative of what comes after. Kevin Durant led the NBA in scoring last preseason, Chris Paul led the league in assists and Andre Drummond in rebounds. In the regular season? Durant led in scoring, Paul in assists and Drummond was second in boards. Of the major counting stats, only Mario Chalmers' three steals per game stands out as a major outlier among preseason leaders.
The phrase "basketball is basketball" exists for a reason. There is no one throwing 85 mph meatballs or Division II linemen living out their dream of being cut by an NFL team in the NBA. Everyone—even the non-guaranteed camp bodies—has discernible skill. The NBA limits the number of those camp bodies to a handful of players per team, making the spots more valuable and leading to more judicious uses by coaches.
You'll never see much beyond vanilla scheming on both ends of the floor, but the inklings of the product we'll be consuming for the next eight months will be there. In a similar vein, some of the most intriguing storylines of the exhibition season will be the ones that carry over to Oct. 28 and beyond. Here is a look at a few that stand out.
How Will Kobe's Body Hold Up?
In typical Kobe Bryant fashion, there will be no slow ramping up of activity this fall. Los Angeles Lakers coach Byron Scott told Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears that the former league MVP requested to play in all eight preseason games to get his body back into a rhythm.
"[Bryant] wants to play in every one of them just to get the rust off, get his timing back and get his legs under him, all the things you do during preseason," Scott said. "I told him to take it easy three weeks ago and he said, 'Coach, I need to play. I haven't played in almost a year.' He looked good that day."
Of course, Bryant played in only six games all of last season after suffering a knee fracture on Dec. 17. He was already working his way back from a torn Achilles, an injury that's one of (if not the) worst injuries for an aging basketball player in terms of recovery time and historical success upon return.
Bryant's maniacal stance should come as a surprise to exactly no one. It's how he became the second-best 2-guard in NBA history and, arguably, how he wound up back on the shelf last season in the first place.
Numerous surgeons (who have not treated Bryant, for what that's worth) have said the knee and Achilles injuries can be indirectly related due to factors like a loss of bone mass, which makes the area of Bryant's knee weaker.
Unlike his Achilles injury, though, there has been no accelerated rehab. The Lakers' lost season allowed Bryant to heal at a slower pace for a more minor injury. He has been claiming to be "100 percent" healthy since a June interview at the World Cup.
Which, of course, opens the $48.5 million question: Is Kobe Bryant still Kobe Bryant?
History says no. Since the ABA-NBA merger there have only been nine seasons in which a non-big age 36 or over has averaged 15 or more points per game, per Basketball Reference. Two of those were by Michael Jordan, who had taken three seasons off to rest his body. The most recent was Sam Cassell in 2005-06.
| John Havlicek | 1976-77 | 36 | 17.7 |
| John Havlicek | 1977-78 | 37 | 16.1 |
| Julius Erving | 1986-87 | 36 | 16.8 |
| Dale Ellis | 1996-97 | 36 | 16.6 |
| Dominique Wilkins | 1996-97 | 37 | 18.2 |
| Michael Jordan | 2001-02 | 38 | 22.9 |
| Reggie Miller | 2001-02 | 36 | 16.5 |
| Michael Jordan | 2002-03 | 39 | 20.0 |
| Sam Cassell | 2005-06 | 36 | 17.2 |
Bryant is a historically great player, one of the 10 best of all time without question. His work ethic is as high as anyone to ever play the game. But he's coming off two major injuries and has more than 54,000 minutes (regular season and postseason) on his NBA odometer. To count out Bryant is a losing game. To say I'm curious though would be an understatement.
OK, OK, Let's Talk Cavs
LeBron James' return home hasn't quite reached 2010 Miami Heat levels on the insufferability index, but that's only because the four-time MVP has done his best to curb publicity-generating stunts. The media coverage of the new, revamped Cleveland Cavaliers is already reaching a fever pitch—and it's only going to get worse over the next month.
I can already hear fans of the 29 other franchises harassing my Twitter feed about a supposed "bias" and an undercoverage of "better stories."
But let's be clear about one thing: There are no better stories. None. Not the grizzled San Antonio Spurs' quest for a repeat. Not the ticking clock on the Oklahoma City Thunder's core with Kevin Durant's free agency looming in 2016. Not Derrick Rose's return and his drove of skilled big men.
The Cavaliers have the game's best player making an unprecedented return home four years after watching his No. 23 be burned in trash cans around Northeast Ohio. It has James constructing another so-called Big Three, this time with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. It has James attempting to bring Cleveland sports its first championship since the Don Draper era.
We throw words like legacy around to the point they lose meaning, but James' first-person story in Sports Illustrated was the beginning to his last chapter. He turns 30 in December. Historical indicators say there are one or two years left wherein we can clearly consider James the league's best player. There were already signs of slippage last season in Miami—particularly on the defensive end.
The biggest problem with James' return north and what it took to bring Love along is that he'll have as much—if not more—defensive responsibility than with the Heat. Trading Andrew Wiggins robbed the Cavaliers of a potential All-Defensive, Paul George-esque menace on the outside. Love and Irving are both below-average defenders, and Dion Waiters is a human 180 on the "the best offense is a good defense" cliche.
Cleveland's offense should lead the NBA in efficiency. Love, Irving and James are three excellent passers at their respective positions, and Anderson Varejao's court vision has always gone undercovered within the plaudits of his hustle and energy.
Defensively, the Cavs might be a mess. They have no rim protection to speak of, are crossing their fingers that Shawn Marion still has something left in the tank and are probably on the precipice of handing a really dumb contract to Tristan Thompson.
The 2014-15 Cleveland Cavaliers: Come for the alley-oops. Stay to see if we can figure out what the hell we're doing defensively.
Rookies, Rookies, ROOOOOOKIES
As anyone who tends to follow around the words of the stupid blond-haired guy who writes for this website (that's me, BTW) knows, I have a bit of a draft itch. Hours upon hours of film study go into the rankings and mock drafts you see floating around the webspace. And, as one typically does when they put their full investment in things, I have a vested interest in seeing how it all plays out.
Wiggins has already been thrown behind the eight ball, with Dan Gilbert hoisting him Simba-style like a proud papa only to drop him off in Minnesota when LeBron came calling. His trade was the first time in league history a No. 1 pick had been drafted by a team and then sent packing after draft night.
In Minnesota, he'll join Zach LaVine—another athletically-gifted freak with an unlimited ceiling and nerve-wracking floor. I'd be surprised to see LaVine start right away in the regular season, but Flip Saunders should look to get him and Wiggins together as much as possible in the preseason. If we don't get at least one Ricky Rubio-Wiggins-LaVine three-man weave, Saunders has committed a crime against humanity.
Second overall pick Jabari Parker will have his own interesting dynamic as the Milwaukee Bucks attempt to work out how he'll fit next to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee coach Jason Kidd is already toying around with the idea of having Antetokounmpo play the point, which is both exhilarating and terrifying. If Antetokounmpo is able to make the transition to primary ball-handler, though, it'll open things up for Parker, who will swing back and forth between the two forward spots.
The Dante Exum hype has strangely died down since June, which is strange because he'll be battling Trey Burke all camp long. Burke, Utah's first-round pick in 2013, can undoubtedly see the writing on the wall with his talented Australian teammate. While it's possible Quin Snyder finds a way to play both—at 6'6", Exum is tall enough to guard opposing 2s—both players need the ball in their hands to be effective.
Exum has the talent to be a cornerstone piece. Burke as a rookie looked like he'll top out as a below-average starter or solid third guard on a contender.
Elsewhere: Julius Randle tries to avoid being hit by the actual darts coming out of Bryant's eyes when he makes mistakes; Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton try to salvage one of worst shooting cores in modern NBA history with the Orlando Magic; Marcus Smart tries to Wally Pipp Rajon Rondo; Doug McDermott tries to avoid being consigned to a spectator role by Tom Thibodeau; T.J. Warren gets weird; Nik Stauskas drops buckets; Noah Vonleh tries to combat the Jordan Draft Curse.
Let the fun begin.
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