What If New-Look Miami Heat Flame Out This Season?
Things could break bad for the Miami Heat this season. Really bad.
The disaster scenario is easy to envision: Dwyane Wade continues to age like a normal human being, and injury or general ineffectiveness renders him ordinary—or worse. Luol Deng can’t shoot. Josh McRoberts can’t rebound. Chris Bosh struggles in his return to the low post and doesn’t score sufficiently to act as a credible No. 1 option on a top-flight offense.
Add it all up, and a Heat team that many pundits, including ESPN.com’s intrepid summer forecasters, have pegged for a win total in the mid-40s could easily slip into lottery territory.
At which point the question becomes: What now?
For several reasons, it probably won’t be a full-scale teardown and rebuild that’s become en vogue of late.
The first reason is that Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra are too proud, and too impatient, to go too far down such a painful road. Riley is preternaturally competitive—he’s made NBA Finals appearances in every stop of his journey as a coach and an executive—and, at 69, probably wouldn’t allow one of his teams to throw a season. To paraphrase the aging cop in a buddy comedy, he’s just too old for this stuff.
He’s also, like a lot of deeply competitive people, fundamentally deluded about his chances of victory. From all indications, he’s a man who’s capable of convincing himself his Heat are always on the cusp of contention, just a move or two away. Why disassemble such a team?
Consider the remarks Riley made to ESPN.com after LeBron James took his talents to Northern Ohio:
"No doubt we lost a great player. I don't get hurt. ... The hurt didn't last long. We picked up the phone and went to work. Sometimes, things happen that you don't like, but you have to move on. I feel really good about where we are right now at this moment. I feel we are up to the challenge and will be as competitive as anyone in the Eastern Conference.
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This is a man who can barely comprehend losing. Fortunately for Miami, even if things went to pot this season, he likely wouldn’t have to grapple with failure for long.
The Heat have a flexible cap situation. According to HoopsHype, while Miami’s cap number is set at $69 million in 2015-16—with player options for Wade, Danny Granger and Norris Cole that could knock it down another $21 million should all three choose to opt out—the only contracts Miami is committed to in 2016-17 are those of Bosh and McRoberts.
Without much maneuvering, Miami will have plenty of cap space to add the players of its choosing that summer to place around two stretchy and (presumably still) uber-capable big men. As long as South Beach is still an attractive place for young, rich men to live in two years—and it will be—it seems likely the Heat will do their best to stay competitive over the next couple of campaigns without compromising long-term flexibility, then bide their time for the summer of 2016.
And that’s a pretty good class to wait around for. Kevin Durant, Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Nicolas Batum and Mike Conley are all scheduled to be free agents, while LeBron, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard could join their ranks by declining or accepting player options.
While not all of these stars will make it to the open market—and most of them likely won’t—this still makes for one of the most power-packed free-agent classes of all time. And the Heat—with the persuasive Riley, a history of greatness and beautiful South Beach as their selling points—will be poised to make a killing.
According to the Sun Sentinel’s Ira Winderman, Miami brass is already planning such a move:
"The Heat clearly have placed a priority on being a player in 2016 free agency, when the salary cap is expected to rise exponentially. So yes, there is a chance that any player (perhaps other than Wade) who has a breakout season and an opt-out could bolt next summer. I still believe the Heat would keep their focus on 2016 free agency.
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A star-studded team built on the fly over the course of one madcap offseason? Yeah right. That could never work.
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