Areas Manchester City Must Improve to Lift Champions League Qualification Hopes

There’s little doubt, Manchester City’s 1-1 draw with Roma has left them with a difficult task to qualify from Group E in this season’s Champions League. According to Opta, only 14.6 percent of teams who end Matchday 2 with one point on the board progress to the last 16, and with City heading to Rome on a potentially crucial Matchday 6, the picture appears somewhat gloomy.

"

14.6% - Just 32 of the 232 teams to have earned 1 point or fewer from their opening 2 CL group games have advanced out of the group. Task.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 30, 2014"

That’s not to say City’s chances are over. They play CSKA Moscow home and away in their next two fixtures, having taken six points off the Russians in last season’s group stage, and a repeat performance this time could alter the picture drastically, particularly if Bayern Munich can take at least four points from Roma in the same period.

UEFA’s coefficient seeding system was thrown into even sharper focus Tuesday night, too. Roma were drawn from Pot 4, with City, the champions of England twice in the three seasons, in Pot 2. Arsenal, meanwhile, who finished seven points behind City last season and scraped qualification to the main Champions League draw, were top seeds. It’s a system in desperate need of reform.

City, though, should really be performing better. Four consecutive years in the competition renders any “adjustment period” defence null and void, and one look at their squad suggests they have enough quality to be considered one of the top eight sides in the competition.

Last season, when they qualified for the last 16 for the first time, appeared to represent genuine progress. They won five group games, including a wonderful 3-2 win over Bayern, before losing to Barcelona, which was certainly no disgrace.

However, the insipid nature of their two defeats so far has reopened old wounds. Are City flawed in European competition?

Captain Vincent Kompany said after the draw with Roma that he feels there’s still plenty to play for but that his side rarely get the rub of the green on Champions League nights.

"It's a never-ending story for us in Europe—penalty, not penalty. It's not gone our way, let's be honest,” the Belgium defender said.

"Eventually, and I am still waiting for it, we will get decisions going our way, so let's all be ready for it.
"We didn't play as well as we could, definitely. You just have to look at these games sometimes and say 'It's a point.' There are four more games left, 12 points to play for, and we look at all of those fixtures and think we can get three points in all of them.

"At the moment, we all acknowledge that we could play better. We are absolutely convinced that Roma away, Bayern Munich at home and the two Moscow games that, if we play as well as we can, we should be looking at for three points.

"But this is the Champions League, and if you don't perform, you shouldn't expect more from it.

"It wasn't our best performance apart from the spell towards the end. We couldn't even hold on to the lead; it was just not our best performance. But again, last year we got 15 out of the 18 points in the group stages, so there is still a lot to play for.

"I think we can get a good share of those 12 remaining points.”

So where can City improve?

Firstly, they need to believe they are one of Europe’s top sides. Too often in Champions League matches, City’s players appear to lack the same kind of belief they show in the Premier League where they regularly tear sides apart with a ruthlessness and a confidence that marks them out as a dominant force domestically.

They have a core of world-class players, the kind any side in the world could find a place for: defensive solidity in Pablo Zabaleta and Kompany, midfield dynamism in Yaya Toure and Fernandino, wonderful creativity in the feet of David Silva and potent finishing in the form of Sergio Aguero.

These are genuine stars of European football.

Tactically, too, there’s room for improvement. Manuel Pellegrini’s arrival at City has undoubtedly made City a better side, the gloom cast by his predecessor Roberto Mancini lifted, the quality of the football they produce improved.

Yet, rigidity in his tactical approach has sometimes hurt them. An insistence on playing two central midfielders fits Pellegrini’s ideological view of the attacking style he wants his side to play, but a more pragmatic approach at certain times would surely benefit his side.

Against patient European sides with extra numbers in midfield, who have technically proficient players comfortable in possession, a two-man midfield can sometimes get overrun. Often, if you lose the midfield battle, it’s difficult to win the game.

The loss of Fernando through injury since the Stoke City game has hardly helped, with the Brazilian midfielder the kind of player more than capable of adding extra bite to City’s midfield, helping them regain possession. His return, expected soon, will no doubt help.

City have a mountain to climb, but all is not lost, and there are adjustments they can make to improve their chances. Pellegrini must show a willingness to alter his formation when necessary, and his players must begin to believe in themselves. Do that, and who knows, maybe they can progress to the knockout phase once more.

Rob Pollard is Bleacher Report's lead Manchester City correspondent and will be following the club from a Manchester base throughout the 2014-15 season. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow him on Twitter @RobPollard.