Why 49ers Made Right Decision Going with Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith

It's been nearly two years since Colin Kaepernick took the San Francisco 49ers' starting quarterback position from Alex Smith. 

OK, maybe the better word is "stole."

Smith had won 19 of 24 regular-season games before suffering an injury against the St. Louis Rams in Week 10 of the 2012 season. Kap stepped in and led the 49ers to a come-from-behind tie. 

That set up the fateful Monday night game against the Chicago Bears, Kap's first start. 

He torched Chicago for 243 passing yards (on just 23 attempts) and two touchdowns in a 32-7 rout. The offense looked more explosive than it had at any point since, well, before Smith was drafted No. 1 overall by the 49ers in 2005. 

That's when the Niners knew they had their quarterback of the future. They never looked back, eventually trading Smith in the offseason to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Fast-forward to now, and the debate still lives on: Should the 49ers have picked Kap over Smith? Paul Gutierrez of ESPN's NFL Nation shared a tweet on the subject:

The correct answer, Alex, is they made the right decision, though it's worthy of debate.

Stats Suggest It's Very Close

Some 49ers fans will point to Kap's playoff disappointments and occasional self-destructing as reasons to bash San Francisco's front office for its decision. And there is some validity to these points.

Here is Smith's performance in losses since the 2011 playoffs:

	T Yards	AY/A	TD-INT	QBR
vs. NYG* ('11)	238	9.08	2-0	29.3
@ MIN* ('12)	230	5.83	1-1	54.9
vs. NYG* ('12)	205	2.17	0-3	20.9
@ DEN ('13)	282	6.00	2-0	25.5
vs. SD ('13)	291	8.13	3-1	79.4
vs. DEN ('13)	339	6.86	2-1	69.4
vs. IND ('13)	200	3.86	0-1	11.1
@ IND ('13)	425	9.96	4-0	81.9
vs. TEN ('14)	238	2.49	1-3	11.3
@ DEN ('14)	297	6.07	0-0	73.7
Per-Game Avg.	275	6.05	1.5-1	45.7

And here's Kap's:

	T Yards	AY/A	TD-INT	QBR
@ STL ('12)	292	6.50	0-0	62.6
@ SEA ('12)	275	6.08	1-1	27.6
vs. BAL ('12)	364	9.89	1-1	61.1
@ SEA ('13)	214	-0.29	0-3	14.0
vs. IND ('13)	170	3.89	0-1	11.8
vs. CAR ('13)	107	2.09	0-1	7.7
@ NO ('13)	152	3.94	2-1	46.0
@ SEA ('13)	283	3.46	1-2	65.1
vs. CHI ('14)	312	3.91	1-3	24.3
@ ARZ ('14)	299	7.16	1-0	80.2
Per-Game Avg.	247	4.66	.7-1.3	40

Table notes: *Games with 49ers; T Yards is Total Yards; AY/A is PFR's Adjusted Yards Gained Per Pass Attempt; QBR is ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating; TD-INT doesn't account for rushing TDs

Both have had five games with a QBR under 30. But Smith has never had three fourth-quarter turnovers in a close playoff game, and he has not thrown for fewer than 100 yards in a one-score regular-season loss (like Kap did against Carolina). 

This is the strongest argument for Smith. He's less likely to lose his team a game. With a great defense and running game, like he had for a season-and-a-half with the 49ers and the first half of 2013 with the Chiefs, he's awfully hard to beat. 

Where Kap has the advantage is total performance in the last three seasons. 

Look at Kap's advantage in Pro Football Focus' QB Rating:

	2011	2012	2013	2014
Smith	90.1	96.9	85.1	89.1
Kap	N/A	100.8	88.6	96.9

Three years in a row Kap has performed better than Smith. The best comparison is 2012, when they captained the same offense. In that year, Kap earned the starting job for the rest of the season by outperforming Smith, and he didn't disappoint with an outstanding playoff run. 

There are so many other factors in play here. For example, is Andy Reid guiding Smith in Kansas City, or is Smith making him look good? Did defenses find the trick to limiting Kap, or have the 49ers coaches and offensive line simply been worse since 2012?

I think it's a little bit of both for each question, but answering them would require deep investigations deserving of their own articles. 

What we do know is Kap has been the statistically better quarterback overall, though it's been very close. 

	Snaps	Total Yards	Total TDs	INTs	AY/A
Smith	1,790	6,606	45	15	7.2
Kap	1,816	7,049	46	15	7.9

However, who has been better in the clutch moments?

Smith has seven regular-season fourth-quarter comebacks since the beginning of the 2011 season, whereas Kap has five in his career. We'll call that a wash, as Smith had an extra season to get his total.

So, it comes down to the postseason. 

In the 2011 playoffs, Smith had one of the most memorable comebacks in 49ers history, leading two go-ahead TD drives in the last four minutes to beat the New Orleans Saints 36-32.

However, in his next game, Smith had four chances with the game tied at 17 in the fourth quarter or overtime to lead a game-winning drive, and he failed to deliver a single first down. 

Kaepernick, meanwhile, led a 17-point comeback victory against the Atlanta Falcons in the 2012 NFC Championship Game. He guided the 49ers to 10 points in their final two drives in the 2013 Wild Card Round to beat the Green Bay Packers 23-20. 

In his two playoff losses, Kap is remembered for his last-play failures, yet in both games he led the 49ers down the field and in position for a victory. That's worth something.

	T Yards	AY/A	TD-INT	QBR
Smith (3 Gs)	330	9.2	9-0	56.4
Kap (6 Gs)	314	8.0	7-5	82.5

Despite a 1-2 postseason record, Smith's stats are better. However, Kap has faced tougher defenses, and the one stat Smith is far behind in is ESPN QBR, which heavily takes into account clutch performance. 

Even in Smith's last playoff start, a brilliant performance against the Indianapolis Colts, he failed to orchestrate a scoring drive with the game on the line (and KC down one). 

Future Gives Kap the Edge

So, to recap, Kap has been worse in losses, better overall in the regular season and both have been brilliant in the playoffs, except for the biggest of big moments. It's a pretty much a dead heat until you remember Kap is in his second full season, whereas Smith is a 10-year veteran. Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle used passer-rating stats to compare the quarterbacks:

The experience factor was why the 49ers had to do what they did. 

They knew they had a decent quarterback with Smith. He was 20-6-1 in his last 27 starts (playoffs included). But he benefited from having the best defense in the PFF site's history, which dates back to 2007, in 2011 (subscription required). 

They needed a quarterback who could challenge an elite defense in the playoffs, not one who folded so easily in the NFC Championship Game against the New York Giants. 

Kap hasn't led the 49ers to a Super Bowl title. He still struggles to read defenses. And he's not progressing as quickly as fans had hoped. 

However, if you had put  Smith against the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game with no rushing attack, what do you think would've happened? I doubt that game would've even been close.

Instead, Kap rushed for 130 yards by himself and was inches away from throwing a game-winning TD pass.

The Niners had to believe Kaepernick would get markedly better when they made the choice to trade Smith. And if Kap does, this debate will be moot. If he doesn't, I'd still rather have Kap's big-play ability over Smith's steadiness. 

Smith is what he is—a quarterback who avoids turnovers by attacking defenses with short passes. That's not going to change. 

	Completions	Attempts	Percentage	Accuracy
Smith	25	68	36.7	45.5
Kap	48	106	45.2	50.9

Table notes: Stats are for passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield; accuracy accounts for dropped passes.

Maybe had the 49ers started Smith, he would've torched the Packers and led a come-from-behind win against the Falcons, like Kap did in the 2012 playoffs, before beating the Baltimore Ravens in a Super Bowl shootout. Maybe the Niners would've received a greater return than they got for Smith by trading Kap in the 2013 offseason. Maybe Smith would've guided the 49ers to a Super Bowl in the 2013 season.

There are too many hypotheticals to count. 

It's what makes the Smith-Kap debate so divisive. 

But when you have two quarterbacks who are playing at about the same level, wouldn't you take the one who's younger, bigger, faster and stronger? 

On Sunday, the 49ers will hope youth and potential at the quarterback position win out.

Joseph Akeley is a San Francisco 49ers featured columnist. Follow @Jakeley_BR on Twitter.